Topic: Results Comparison 2015/16

[helmboy_nige]

I noticed no one had started a results comparison this season and I stayed out of the whole thing last year because it was all too painful. It’s amazing what 3 good results can do for the mood though ;-)

You all know how this works. We compare our results this season to last season (and previous ones) to give us an indication of how we are doing. Last seasons relegated teams are replaced with the promoted sides, so:

• Hull are replaced by Bournemouth
• Burnley are replaced by Watford
• QPR are replaced by Norwich

I’ve been doing this since the title challenging season of 2008/09 so we have a decent pot of data to compare with.

I'll update it weekly and hopefully some of the old gang will chime in (Zabadoh, Jack Slater, JP-65 et al).

RESULTS

Month	LS	TS	Game	Result	Pts	Total	14/15	14/15 +/-	13/14 +/-	12/13 +/-	11/12 +/-	10/11 +/-	09/10 +/-	08/09 +/-	07/08 +/-
August	38	1	Stoke (A)	1-0 W	3	3	1-6 L	3	0	3	3	3	2	2	2
	9	2	Bournemouth (H)	1-0 W	3	6	0-0 D	5	0	3	3	3	2	2	2
	31	3	Arsenal (A)	0-0 D	1	7	1-4 L	6	1	3	1	3	3	2	2
	23	4	West Ham (H)	0-3 L	0	7	2-0 W	3	-2	2	-2	3	0	-1	-1
September	16	5	Man Utd (A)	1-3 L	0	7	0-3 L	3	-5	2	-2	3	0	-4	-1
	35	6	Norwich (H)			7	2-1 W	0	-8	-1	-2	0	-1	-5	-4
	4	7	Aston Villa (H)			7	0-1 L	0	-9	-1	-3	-3	-1	-8	-5
October	24	8	Everton (A)			7	0-0 D	-1	-10	-2	-6	-3	-4	-11	-8
	3	9	Tottenham (A)			7	3-0 W	-4	-13	-2	-6	-3	-4	-11	-11
	1	10	Southampton (H)			7	2-1 W	-7	-13	-5	-7	-6	-7	-14	-14
	36	11	Chelsea (A)			7	1-1 D	-8	-13	-6	-10	-9	-7	-17	-15
November	37	12	Crystal Palace (H)			7	1-3 L	-8	-16	-9	-13	-12	-8	-20	-18
	2	13	Man City (A)			7	1-3 L	-8	-16	-10	-13	-12	-9	-23	-19
	19	14	Swansea (H)			7	4-1 W	-11	-19	-13	-14	-15	-12	-24	-22
December	10	15	Newcastle (A)			7	0-1 L	-11	-20	-16	-14	-15	-15	-27	-22
	7	16	WBA (H)			7	2-1 W	-14	-23	-16	-14	-18	-18	-28	-25
	18	17	Watford (A)			7	1-0 W	-17	-26	-19	-15	-19	-18	-29	-28
	20	18	Leicester (H)			7	2-2 D	-18	-29	-22	-16	-19	-21	-32	-31
	21	19	Sunderland (A)			7	1-0 W	-21	-32	-23	-16	-22	-21	-35	-34
January	5	20	West Ham (A)			7	1-3 L	-21	-35	-26	-19	-25	-22	-38	-37
	17	21	Arsenal (H)			7	2-2 D	-22	-38	-26	-19	-26	-22	-39	-38
	30	22	Man Utd (H)			7	1-2 L	-22	-41	-26	-20	-29	-25	-42	-38
	8	23	Norwich (A)			7	3-2 W	-25	-44	-29	-20	-32	-25	-45	-41
February	14	24	Leicester (A)			7	3-1 W	-28	-47	-32	-23	-32	-25	-48	-42
	15	25	Sunderland (H)			7	0-0 D	-29	-50	-35	-24	-33	-28	-51	-45
	22	26	Aston Villa (A)			7	2-0 W	-32	-53	-38	-27	-33	-31	-52	-48
	6	27	Everton (H)			7	1-1 D	-33	-56	-39	-30	-34	-34	-53	-51
March	27	28	Man City (H)			7	2-1 W	-36	-59	-40	-31	-37	-35	-54	-54
	12	29	Crystal Palace (A)			7	1-3 L	-36	-60	-43	-31	-38	-36	-54	-55
	11	30	Chelsea (H)			7	1-2 L	-36	-60	-44	-34	-41	-36	-57	-56
	26	31	Southampton (A)			7	2-0 W	-39	-63	-44	-37	-41	-37	-60	-57
April	25	32	Tottenham (H)			7	3-2 W	-42	-66	-47	-38	-41	-40	-63	-58
	13	33	Stoke (H)			7	1-0 W	-45	-69	-48	-39	-44	-43	-64	-59
	33	34	Bournemouth (A)			7	0-1 L	-45	-69	-49	-39	-47	-46	-67	-62
	32	35	Newcastle (H)			7	2-0 W	-48	-72	-50	-42	-50	-49	-70	-65
	29	36	Swansea (A)			7	1-0 W	-51	-73	-51	-42	-50	-52	-73	-65
May	28	37	Watford (H)			7	2-0 W	-54	-76	-54	-42	-51	-55	-76	-66
	34	38	WBA (A)			7	0-0 D	-55	-77	-54	-45	-51	-56	-79	-69

[helmboy_nige]

With three games gone what's interesting is that we are not only well ahead of last season, but we are ahead of every season I've got a record of. We've even improved on our two title challenging seasons. Amazing how poor our record has been at Stoke and Arsenal.

So, we're already 6 points up on last season with most of our worst results from last season coming in the first half of the season. It's a chance for us to really see some improvements, if we can keep this up.

[rebel23]

thanks for this useful thread nige

[DonkeyWan]

Can you explain how the weighting works at all?

[helmboy_nige]

Can you explain how the weighting works at all?

There are no weightings.

I've just taken each match and compared the points scored this season with the ones scored in previous seasons.

[-HH-]

http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=81017.msg1291560#msg1291560

I know it was 10 years ago, and I know JP took it to another level but as the one who started this (and ran it for a few years) it'd be nice to at least have a mention as 'one of the old gang'...

[helmboy_nige]

http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=81017.msg1291560#msg1291560

I know it was 10 years ago, and I know JP took it to another level but as the one who started this (and ran it for a few years) it'd be nice to at least have a mention as 'one of the old gang'...

Fair play... as the founder of this wonderful concept, I doff my cap to you.

[zabadoh]

Thanks Nige for starting this this season.  I was waiting for last weekend's results to have a decent graph to put up, but then the PC that had my spreadsheet on it died.

[Hij]

http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=81017.msg1291560#msg1291560

I know it was 10 years ago, and I know JP took it to another level but as the one who started this (and ran it for a few years) it'd be nice to at least have a mention as 'one of the old gang'...

It's a crazy concept to have been part of a web community for 10 years. Not even Facebook or Twitter were around when we started I wonder how much time I've wasted reading the brilliant and inane on here!

Anyway, nice one Nige, will follow with interest, cheers for the work putting it together.

[helmboy_nige]

Thanks Nige for starting this this season.  I was waiting for last weekend's results to have a decent graph to put up, but then the PC that had my spreadsheet on it died.

I was wondering if you were planning to put something up. Looking forward to the graphs, especially given our improvements so far this season!

[zabadoh]

Okay, the PC and my spreadsheet are back:



I've dropped Southampton and Everton because there aren't any clear favorites to join the top 8.
Will we see who's for real at the halfway point?

	Projected Points	Projected GD	Cumulative Pts Differential	Cumulative Goals For Diff.	Cumulative Goals Against Diff.	Cumulative Goals Diff.
Chelsea	87	+40	0	0	+1	-1
Man City	83	+50	+4	+3	-3	+6
Arsenal	70	+27	-5	-7	+1	-8
Man Utd	70	+22	0	-5	-2	-3
Liverpool	68	+14	+6	0	-10	+10
Spurs	63	+7	-1	0	-2	+2

The good news is that our Goal Difference (GD) is +10 over last season! 

The bad news is that all of this gain has come at the defensive end of the field.  The new attacking players don't seem to have made much impact so far.  Maybe later in the season with more fluency.

And that includes the vast improvement at Stoke compared to last season's results when the players minds had left for holidays already when that was played.

Manchester City has improved on last season's results, while Chelsea has maintained their title winning form.

edit:  Found a bug in my spreadsheet.  Our Projected GD should have be +14, not  +4

[Redman78]

Okay, I understand the comparisons are based on this season results vs previous seasons, but what stats are used for the graph, not trend?

[zabadoh]

Okay, I understand the comparisons are based on this season results vs previous seasons, but what stats are used for the graph, not trend?

The starting point, "Week 0," is our point total at the end of last season. 

The reason that I'm using that as a start is to measure improvement or deterioration in our point total from last season.

From there, as the matches get played, last season's results are effectively replaced by this season's results for each equivalent match. 

e.g.  Last season, we lost at Stoke and got 0 points, this season we won and got 3 points, for the same equivalent match.  So the our point differential for Week 1 is +3, because we have 3 more points than we did after the same match last season.

As the season marches on, the table will look more and more like the current season, until at the end, when it will look exactly like the real table because all the data will have come from the current season.

[Redman78]

Oh okay! Good stuff, thank you

[Roger Federer]

Posting so that I can follow this thread easier, cheers for starting it this season, Nige! I haven't seen JP in a while, does he still post on here?

[helmboy_nige]

Posting so that I can follow this thread easier, cheers for starting it this season, Nige! I haven't seen JP in a while, does he still post on here?

I haven't seen him on here in ages. Real shame as he seemed like a real good un.

[zabadoh]

JP was busy at work at the start of last season.  Maybe the same thing happened this year.

Does anyone want to do the Time Comparison for this season?

[farawayred]

I'll just quietly say thanks, so I can follow the thread.

[McrRed]

.

[zabadoh]

This week's loss to West Ham, which we won last season, has wiped out the point gains from the last 2 matches, and halved our overinflated GD.

In other words, our awful display this weekend was worth -5 GD compared to last season's result! 

Our attack is performing worse than last season at -2 goals in comparison to last season.  So instead of 4 goals in the 4 equivalent matches last season, we've scored 2 goals in 4 games. 

Manchester City have caught Chelsea,

United play tomorrow.

	Projected Points	Projected GD	Cumulative Pts Differential	Cumulative Goals For Diff.	Cumulative Goals Against Diff.	Cumulative Goals Diff.
Man City	85	+53	+6	+3	-5	+8
Chelsea	84	+38	-3	0	+3	-3
Arsenal	70	+27	-5	-8	0	-8
Man Utd	70	+22	0	-5	-2	-3
Liverpool	65	+9	+3	-2	-7	+5
Spurs	61	+6	-3	-2	-3	+1

[zabadoh]

Man Utd lost the equivalent match by the same score, so their line goes horizontal.

[zabadoh]

We lost the equivalent match 3-0 last season, so we actually gained +1 GD this time around.

Doesn't feel any better though...

Chart after the rest of the weekend's results are in and I get the taste out of my mouth.

[Zeb]

Just a wee thanks, and posting to keep thread tracked.

[zabadoh]

We're still clinging onto our +3 points improvement which is just enough to keep us ahead of Spurs.

Chelsea are falling away, but there's still plenty of season left.

Arsenal and ManU are on track to finish about even, with Arsenal a slight lead in the GD tie breaker.

	Projected Points	Projected GD	CumulPtsD	Cumul GFD	Cumul GAD	Cumul GD
Man City	88	+56	+9	+4	-7	+11
Chelsea	81	+33	-6	-5	+3	-8
Arsenal	70	+26	-5	-9	0	-9
Man Utd	70	+21	0	-5	-1	-4
Liverpool	65	+10	+3	-1	-7	+6
Spurs	63	+7	-1	-3	-5	+2

[helmboy_nige]

Been out of the country for a few weeks with work so not really had a chance to update.

I've updated the OP. We're up 3 points on last seasons equivalent matches. Needless to say the game against Norwich is a must win to keep ahead of last season and then the game against Villa is a chance to improve on the last 4 seasons were we failed to win each time at home.

[ShayGuevara]

Been out of the country for a few weeks with work so not really had a chance to update.

I've updated the OP. We're up 3 points on last seasons equivalent matches. Needless to say the game against Norwich is a must win to keep ahead of last season and then the game against Villa is a chance to improve on the last 4 seasons were we failed to win each time at home.

That's actually depressing. Crazy record at home.

[zabadoh]

Welcome back Nige.  I don't blame you for staying away these last few weeks ;-)

That's actually depressing. Crazy record at home.

I don't find that so.  Some teams are just bogey sides for us, and the Results Comparison accounts for some of that. 

If we beat Aston Villa, then it will be more of a sign of improvement than if we beat Norwich.

[zabadoh]

	Projected Points	Projected GD	Cumul PtsD	Cumul GFD	Cumul GAD	Cumul GD
Man City	85	+53	+6	+3	-5	+8
Chelsea	81	+33	-6	-5	+3	-8
Arsenal	70	+26	-5	-9	0	-9
Man Utd	70	+21	0	-4	0	-4
Spurs	65	+8	+1	-2	-5	+3
Liverpool	63	+9	+1	-2	-7	+5

We've just about given back the early season points gains and are only +1 point above last season's equivalent performance.

Our next 5 matches had the following results from last season:

L   Liverpool    0-1   Aston Villa
D   Everton    0-0   Liverpool
W   Tottenham Hotspur    0–3   Liverpool
W   Liverpool    2–1    Southampton
D   Chelsea    1-1   Liverpool

They include both of the amazing early wins over Southampton and Spurs with the Moreno goal before Sturridge got injured and things seemed to turn sour for the season.

Other tracked teams:

Man City slipped against a resurgent West Ham (a candidate for tracked team #7?)  Next week, they're playing Spurs away whom they beat 0-1.

Chelsea beat Arsenal by 2-0 both this time and last.  Next match, they have an opportunity to avenge a 2-1 away loss to Newcastle.

Man U beat Southampton to stay even, and next week they play Sunderland at home where they beat them 2-0 last time out.

Arsenal also have an opportunity to improve on last season and get ahead of ManU, as they drew with Leicester City away 1-1 last time.

Spurs improved by beating Palace whom they drew against last season.  Next week, as mentioned earlier, they play Manchester City at home, whom they lost to last season

-----------------------

So are West Ham for real or are they the beneficiaries of an early favorable schedule?

Let's take a look at West Ham's first 6 matches and equivalents from last season:

Match description	Last season	This season	Points differential
Arsenal away	3-0	1-3	+3 pts
Leicester City home	2-0	1-2	-3 pts
Bournemouth (Hull City) home	3-0	3-4	-3 pts
Liverpool away	2-0	0-3	+3 pts
Newcastle home	1-0	2-0	+0 pts
Man City away	2-0	1-2	+3 pts

Not sure what to make of that at all because it's so inconsistent. 

Since they've proven that they can beat the "hard" teams, then if they can put together some more consistent effort against mid and low table clubs, they should be very good.

But as things stand because of inconsistency, they're only +3 above last season's performance, which would have them finishing with 47 + 3 = 50 points

[zabadoh]

The equivalent reversal for a win over Villa has done our chart a world of good.

We're still at the bottom of the Arsenal/Spurs/ManU/Us pack chasing 3rd and 4th, but at least we're within striking distance.

Next week brings another chance for improvement over last season's 0-0 away draw at Everton.

On the other hand, City have almost entirely given away their strong start and are level with steady eddies Chelsea.

	Projected Points	Projected GD	Cumul PtsD	Cumul GFD	Cumul GAD	Cumul GD
Man City	82	+49	+3	+3	-1	+4
Chelsea	82	+34	-5	-4	+3	-7
Arsenal	72	+29	-3	-5	+1	-6
Man Utd	70	+22	0	-3	0	-3
Spurs	68	+12	+4	+2	-5	+7
Liverpool	66	+11	+4	1	-6	+7

[zabadoh]

Surprisingly, Chelsea's defeat only cost them 1 point in the equivalent table, due to an equivalent draw last season.

Arsenal are on an interesting run of improvement.  Although they won't have a chance to improve the next 2 rounds, their next chance to gain on the lead pair comes 3 and 4 rounds later against Swansea and Spurs respectively.

I'm also surprised to find us in a race for 4th, although it's more to do with Spurs and ManU dropping points than us improving.

	Projected Points	Projected GD	Cumul PtsD	Cumul GFD	Cumul GAD	Cumul GD
Man City	82	+49	+3	+4	0	+4
Chelsea	81	+32	-6	-4	+5	-9
Arsenal	75	+33	0	-3	-1	-2
Man Utd	67	+18	-3	-5	+2	-7
Spurs	66	+11	+2	+2	-4	+6
Liverpool	66	+11	+4	2	-5	+7

Next round's equivalent results from last season:

Tottenham Hotspur    0–3   Liverpool
Everton    3-0   Manchester United
Manchester City    1-1   Hull City (Bournemouth)
Burnley (Watford)   0-1   Arsenal
Chelsea    3-0   Aston Villa

Only both of the Manchesters have a chance to improve next round amongst the expected top 6.

[zabadoh]

The Manchesters both boosted with win reversals over previous results.

As I'm sure most of us are aware, we won that away vs Spurs last season, so this week's result is 2 dropped points.

And the chasing pack has separated again, but not in our favor.

	Projected Points	Projected GD	Cumul PtsD	Cumul GFD	Cumul GAD	Cumul GD
Man City	84	+53	+5	+8	0	+8
Chelsea	81	+31	-6	-5	+5	-10
Arsenal	75	+35	0	-1	-1	0
Man Utd	70	+24	0	-2	-1	-1
Spurs	67	+14	+3	+2	-7	+9
Liverpool	64	+8	+2	-1	-5	+4

Next week's equivalent results from last season:

Liverpool	2–1	Southampton
Manchester United	4-2	Manchester City
Bournemouth(Hull City)	1-2	Tottenham Hotspur
Arsenal	2-0	Everton
West Ham United	0-1	Chelsea

[rickardinho1]

Its really surprising that Chelsea aren't doing much worse in this table given how poor their results have been.

Thanks for the hard work zabadoh

[zabadoh]

This season's been strangely volatile so far:  Only about a 31% identical result rate (e.g. last season equivalent loss matched with a loss this season), while last season's eventual identical result rate was a little over 50% by my hand count covering all 8 teams that I tracked.

I've not done further back, so I have no idea whether either rate is normal or not.

Although I seem to remember when someone asked the question last season, the identical result rate was a little over 40% at before the halfway point in the season, so maybe we can expect to see more flat lines later.

[rickardinho1]

Sorry to be a pedant, but would you mind changing the y-axis maximum and minimum values to 90 and 55 or 60 next time?

The graph is really congested and it would make it easier to see how many points teams are on if the lines were a bit more spaced out

[zabadoh]

Good idea.  That was a holdover from making room for Everton last season

[zabadoh]

Its really surprising that Chelsea aren't doing much worse in this table given how poor their results have been.

Using the APLT methodology as a reference for measuring their performance, by my eyeball reckoning, Chelsea would be -4 in equivalent APLT matches last season, and this season they're -10, so the same -6 points worth of degradation in performance is reflected there too.

Just their starting point total is higher here, so it doesn't look as bad.

[zabadoh]

In a season where Chelsea are on track to hand over a Champions League spot to us or Spurs, and United are playing particularly listlessly, we're not doing the job to go and claim it.

	Projected Points	Projected GD	Cumul PtsD	Cumul GFD	Cumul GAD	Cumul GD
Man City	85	+55	+6	+6	-4	+10
Chelsea	78	+29	-9	-5	+7	-12
Arsenal	75	+34	0	-1	0	-1
Man Utd	68	+22	-2	-6	-3	-3
Spurs	67	+17	+3	+5	-7	+12
Liverpool	62	+7	0	-2	-5	+3

Next week's equivalent results:

Chelsea	1-1	Liverpool
Crystal Palace	1-2	Manchester United
Norwich City(QPR)	2-2	Manchester City
Tottenham Hotspur	0-1	Aston Villa
Swansea City	2-1	Arsenal

[myrlas]

Doesn't Score make their charts this season?

[zabadoh]

I've been looking.  He hasn't posted a chart since end of last season.  His last blog post is September 12 2015.

His twitter seems to be more on the Rugby World Cup and a little Eredivisie.

https://twitter.com/simongleave

[zabadoh]

That was a nice result to put us back into positive territory for the season.

Man City look incredible this season and are +11 GD over last season's pretty good results.

Arsenal have caught Chelsea by reversing an equivalent defeat.  Now the question is whether they have enough improvement in them to catch City.

Chelsea are now on -14 GD from last season from deterioration at both ends of the field.

Spurs play an out of form Villa this Monday so they have an excellent chance of reversing the equivalent defeat last season to go +3 pts this week and overtaking the Mancs.

	Projected Points	Projected GD	Cumul PtsD	Cumul GFD	Cumul GAD	Cumul GD
Man City	87	+56	+8	+6	-5	+11
Arsenal	78	+38	+3	+1	-2	+3
Chelsea	77	+27	-10	-5	+9	-14
Spurs	67	+17	+3	+5	-7	+12
Man Utd	66	+21	-4	-8	-4	-4
Liverpool	64	+9	+2	0	-5	+5

Next week's equivalent results from last season:

Liverpool	1-3	Crystal Palace
Manchester United	0-1	West Bromwich Albion
Aston Villa	0-2	Manchester City
Arsenal	1-1	Tottenham Hotspur
Stoke City	0-2	Chelsea