Author Topic: The Top Six Mini-League Thread... Sponsored by TENA  (Read 343244 times)

Offline Alan_X

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The Top Six Mini-League Thread... Sponsored by TENA
« on: March 12, 2017, 07:16:21 pm »
I've made an Excel spreadsheet that shows the run in series of games for each of the top six teams. I use it to play around with predictions and what-ifs.

After today's win at Burnley the Top six is as follows:

 Chelsea    P 27 Pts 66 GD 37. Maximum Pts 99

 Spurs      P 27 Pts 56 GD 33. Maximum Pts 89

 Man City   P 27 Pts 56 GD 24. Maximum Pts 89

 Liverpool  P 28 Pts 55 GD 25. Maximum Pts 85

 Arsenal    P 26 Pts 50 GD 24. Maximum Pts 86

 Man United P 26 Pts 49 GD 17. Maximum Pts 85

Based on that there are four teams that could get more points than us which suggests that getting top four is no longer in our hands. I haven't worked out every permutation yet but there is one factor that I believe leaves us not only with our fate in our own hands but among the favourites to finish in the top four.

That factor is the Top Six Mini-League. We have now played everyone home and away except for Man City who we play next. That means that of the other five teams competing for a Champions League place only City can affect us. All the other games are in our own hands

The story is very different for the others who have to play two teams (Chelsea and Spurs), three (Arsenal) or four (Man City and Man United).

Chelsea   - Man City (H) Man United (A)

 Spurs     - Arsenal (H) Man United (H)

 Man City  - Liverpool (H) Arsenal (H) Chelsea (A) Man United (H)

 Liverpool - Man City (A)

 Arsenal   - Man City (A) Spurs (A) Man United (H)

 Man Utd   - Chelsea (H) Arsenal (A) Spurs (A) Man City (A)

That means that all of the teams around us can't achieve maximum points. This is simply illustrated by looking at the maximum totals for each team if the points are shared equally in the mini-league, ie all of the remaining games between the top six are drawn:

Chelsea    Drop 4 pts - Maximum Possible Pts 95

 Spurs      Drop
4 pts - Maximum Possible Pts 85

 Liverpool  Drop 2 pts - Maximum Possible Pts 83

 Man City   
Drop 8 pts - Maximum Possible Pts 81

 Arsenal   
Drop 6 pts - Maximum Possible Pts 80

 Man United
Drop 8 pts - Maximum Possible Pts 77


If you assume all draws but one of the teams wins all of their mini-league games you get:

 Chelsea win both (all other mini-league games drawn):

    Chelsea 99; Spurs 85; Liverpool 83; Man City 80; Arsenal 80, United 76

Spurs win both (all other mini-league games drawn):

   Chelsea 95; Spurs 89; Liverpool 83; Man City 81; Arsenal 79, United 76

 Man City win four (all other mini-league games drawn):

   Chelsea 94; Man City 89; Spurs 85; Liverpool 82; Arsenal 79, United 76

 Liverpool win one (all other mini-league games drawn):

    Chelsea 95; Spurs 85; Liverpool 85; Man City 80; Arsenal 80, United 77

 Arsenal win three (all other mini-league games drawn):

   Chelsea 95; Arsenal 86, Spurs 84; Liverpool 83; Man City 80; United 76

 United win four (all other mini-league games drawn):

   Chelsea 94; United 85; Spurs 84; Liverpool 83; Man City 80; Arsenal 79,

Of course there are many other permutations and many other variables, not least our ability to win games against the rest, but the bottom line seems to suggest that despite first appearances, it's up to us whether we finish in the top four because somehow, in some fashion, the other five challengers only have a limited number of points to share between them.

Add in the impact of cup games and that the others all have one or two games in hand to catch up we should be odds on to finish in the top four.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2017, 07:37:48 pm by Rhi »
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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2017, 07:20:31 pm »
another variable to add now is Kane's absence for Spurs.

We have two big games coming up, which we usually do well in [City and Everton]. This league is all about momentum, we have no other distractions, no other competitions, we can only blame ourselves in the end if we fail to finish in the top four.


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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #2 on: March 12, 2017, 07:22:35 pm »
That win today was crucial.  Just gives us a buffer and some breathing space (until they play their games in hand anyway). United's games in hand are City and Southampton away I think they'll do well to win either. Arsenal always look like they'll finally crack and normally recover, hopefully this year will be different.

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #3 on: March 12, 2017, 07:52:21 pm »
Cheers for the OP, interesting that the other teams in the top 6 have to take more points off each other than can be taken from us. Reasons to be cheerful, perhaps. Also, the fact that we have more games against non-top 6 opposition should be a positive, given that they are theoretically weaker than those above them.

I suppose the flipside is that we tend to do better against the better teams and the lower quality oppo who sit back and try and frustrate us often succeed where Spurs, Man City et al find it more difficult to play us. Swings and roundabouts, but I think if we can have a couple of months of form where we replicate how we were playing earlier in the season we'll be able to turn over most teams, bus-parkers or no. Big if, mind.

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #4 on: March 12, 2017, 08:42:30 pm »
Yes I had a lot of this in mind myself Alan (was hoping more for a 1st/2nd push as it goes a few weeks back) and had thought that there are a lot of 6 pointers that we aren't involved in. Thanks for going to the trouble to put it together We have 7/8 games in run in where a direct rival can't take points of us (no 6 pointers). If we can find some form in those ones it will be an advantage.

Someone said that the league game between Chelsea/United is scheduled for semi final weekend, so should be postponed whatever happens -means they could have all four of theirs in the last six.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2017, 08:46:02 pm by Hij »
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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #5 on: March 12, 2017, 08:46:27 pm »
Interesting OP. We need to go all out now, get as many wins as possible, and top four is a possibility.  :)
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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #6 on: March 12, 2017, 09:09:42 pm »
Lets get our house sorted first by winning against city.
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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #7 on: March 12, 2017, 09:11:52 pm »
Its playing sides out side the top 6 has myself more concerned

But nice read ;)

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #8 on: March 12, 2017, 09:19:02 pm »
I haven't completely written off winning the league ......at least until it's mathematically impossible .....how nice would it be to win every game here on in  and Chelsea lose 4 ? I know I know .........

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #9 on: March 12, 2017, 09:21:41 pm »
Fucking hell.

Alan's gone all stato on us ;D
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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #10 on: March 12, 2017, 09:28:32 pm »
Ever since the fixtures were released I was always excited about our run-in as it meant we wouldn't be playing any of the Top 7 sides last 9 games which I thought at the time would be very beneficial to our potential title or Top 4 challenge.

However this calendar year I have lost a lot of confidence in us against the bottom 13 teams , there is clearly something fundamentally wrong that's holding us back against these teams. One thing in particular is defending and it goes back to last season - since Klopp took over we have conceded at 1.52 per game ratio which shockingly has continued into this season at the exact same rate. It's just mind blowing how much we concede against the dross because on the other side we are actually competent in that respect against big teams.

Unless we change something drastically tactics wise I can't see how we get to perform better against these teams because our group of players are showing in big games how good they are. It's up to the manager to find the right tweak. *cough*back 3*cough*.


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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #11 on: March 12, 2017, 10:08:06 pm »
Back 3 won't work with this side.

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #12 on: March 12, 2017, 11:14:06 pm »
If all 6 won their remaining games & took the same points per match for the one's against each other, as they have so far this season,  it looks like this:

Chelsea   96 pts
Spurs       85
Liverpool 84
City          82
Arsenal    79
United      77

Offline jillcwhomever

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #13 on: March 12, 2017, 11:17:27 pm »
If all 6 won their remaining games & took the same points per match for the one's against each other, as they have so far this season,  it looks like this:

Chelsea   96 pts
Spurs       85
Liverpool 84
City          82
Arsenal    79
United      77

I would take that any day of the week.  :D
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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #14 on: March 12, 2017, 11:22:41 pm »
If the maximum points we can get is 85 if we win our last ten then there's no way we can end on 84. But I'll settle for anything above 80. Realistically I think we'll be about 75 at best although I am feeling quite confident of finishing at least 4th now.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2017, 11:24:33 pm by Crosby Road South and Nick »

Offline Hij

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #15 on: March 12, 2017, 11:37:44 pm »
Its playing sides out side the top 6 has myself more concerned

But nice read ;)

True, but the main point is the top six will be playing themselves, only 3 points max can be awarded, can't both take 3.
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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #16 on: March 13, 2017, 05:45:44 pm »
It think 75-77pts is a realistic goal for us and I believe that would deliver CL football. 
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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #17 on: March 13, 2017, 06:29:56 pm »
With 75 points we will likely miss out. 75 points would be borderline if we just had to deal with one opponent. But we have to deal with two. 75 points is not game over but we would need to be lucky to make it. I think we need 80 points to be safe but we probably wont get them. Reality is that our season will probably end in  the hands of midtable teams with nothing to play for in May.

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #18 on: March 13, 2017, 06:39:38 pm »
With 75 points we will likely miss out. 75 points would be borderline if we just had to deal with one opponent. But we have to deal with two. 75 points is not game over but we would need to be lucky to make it. I think we need 80 points to be safe but we probably wont get them. Reality is that our season will probably end in  the hands of midtable teams with nothing to play for in May.

75 points is taking 20 from the last ten and we've been around the 2 points per game mark for a while. To get to 80 we'd have to win 8, draw 1 and lose 1 of the last ten which sounds quite a tall order.

What confuses thing is our weird form. Next two games on paper look the hardest (maybe not Everton at home compared to the likes of West Ham, Stoke and West Brom away). Bit we could win those two and still not get close to 80 points.  We could lose both and then go on a mad run, we are tough to predict.

Still think we'll be about 75 points. United's run in is going to get Brutal and they may put their Eggs in the easier looking Europa basket. Have to hope Arsenal are properly broken this time and they don't do their usual late season Lazarus act.

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #19 on: March 13, 2017, 06:57:29 pm »
Vital we are above Arsenal going in to the final day, cant expect any favours as Everton will fix. Win 7 from 10 and it'll probably be enough, 8 nailed on.

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #20 on: March 13, 2017, 08:10:55 pm »
If you look at the top 6 mini league it looks like this: -



E.g. we're by far in front. Let's use this as form for a prediction and apportion results based on points per game. I've not done home and away - maybe I should have.

If each team wins all their other matches the table will look like this, e.g. we finish 3rd (just) behind Spurs: -



Of course it's all a bit academic, and doubtless there is much more data to add, but thanks Alan_X for pointing out something very much in our favour.

To be honest, I think we'll have Spurs beat if Kane is out for a reasonable amount of time.
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Offline KurtVerbose

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #21 on: March 13, 2017, 08:41:57 pm »
Actually, I've done it with the non-top 6 points per game for the other matches. So this is the genuine prediction if we carry on as we are. We just scrape in 4th.


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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #22 on: March 13, 2017, 08:48:33 pm »
75 points is taking 20 from the last ten and we've been around the 2 points per game mark for a while. To get to 80 we'd have to win 8, draw 1 and lose 1 of the last ten which sounds quite a tall order.

What confuses thing is our weird form. Next two games on paper look the hardest (maybe not Everton at home compared to the likes of West Ham, Stoke and West Brom away). Bit we could win those two and still not get close to 80 points.  We could lose both and then go on a mad run, we are tough to predict.

Still think we'll be about 75 points. United's run in is going to get Brutal and they may put their Eggs in the easier looking Europa basket. Have to hope Arsenal are properly broken this time and they don't do their usual late season Lazarus act.

Unfortunaly we have put ourselves in a bad position after an awful start of the calendar year. If we finish with 75 points then Arsenal need 25 from their last 12 games. They will probably pull that one through.  The chances of Everton giving us a favor on the final day are less than 0. Crystal Palace and Middlesborough could get something out of them.  Hopefully Sunderland are not relegated by the time they have to play Arsenal in the middle of May. 

The good news is that is not a foregone conclusion that Spurs and City will finish above us. Spurs season could derail if Kane injury is serious.

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #23 on: March 13, 2017, 09:37:44 pm »
Our points per game is bizzare.

2.11 against the top six - that's the highest of the top six, yet 1.89 against the non top 6 - that's the lowest of the top six and by some margin.

We find it easier to beat good teams than $hit teams!
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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #24 on: March 13, 2017, 09:46:49 pm »
Think Utd won't win any of their big games. Just yard dogs.
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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #25 on: March 13, 2017, 10:23:08 pm »
Our points per game is bizzare.

2.11 against the top six - that's the highest of the top six, yet 1.89 against the non top 6 - that's the lowest of the top six and by some margin.

We find it easier to beat good teams than $hit teams!

In the 2010/11 season we got 12 out of 18 from the top 3 but only 6 out of 18 from the bottom 3. ( We exchanged wins with West Ham, Birmingham City, Mna United, Man City. We did the double over Chelsea but Blackpool did the double to us)


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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #26 on: March 13, 2017, 10:47:05 pm »
2.11 against the top six - that's the highest of the top six, yet 1.89 against the non top 6 - that's the lowest of the top six and by some margin.
That's nothing. Last season under Klopp we were conceding at staggering 1.5 goals per game ratio against the non Top 7 teams and what's really shocking is that the exact same ratio continued this season. On the surface it looks appalling but when you see our bizarre tactics against Burnley it kinda makes more sense. If we continue to play 433 and try to beat these teams at their games it's not gonna be pretty for us.

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #27 on: March 14, 2017, 05:03:50 am »
20 points from the last 30 should surely be enough for top 4, especially with so many of the others playing each other

We've used up all of our "lives" with the weak start to 2017. We can't afford anymore stupid points dropped. Win the 5 home games and get 5-6 points from city, Watford, west ham, stoke, west brom away.

Those last 4 feel like the Aways we generally get bullied in and lose, but fingers crossed they can rally for them. City on the surface is actually best for us, but if city show up at their best then you're in major trouble

The bookies have us as 4th most likely to get top 4, they seem to have almost guaranteed city and spurs top 4 finishes which is interesting
« Last Edit: March 14, 2017, 05:06:09 am by Crosby Wych »
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The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #28 on: March 14, 2017, 05:26:20 am »
A roughly 80% chance is nowhere near guaranteed. It's the same as penalty kick with an average kicker. 
« Last Edit: March 14, 2017, 05:28:31 am by alvaro »

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #29 on: March 14, 2017, 06:23:41 am »
It's good that the teams around us will obviously take points off each other. I have to he honest though, if we still had to play three or four of them over the next couple of months I'd be alot more confident of securing top four. But like you say, it's still ultimately in our own hands.

Offline Alan_X

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #30 on: March 14, 2017, 06:41:07 am »
It's good that the teams around us will obviously take points off each other. I have to he honest though, if we still had to play three or four of them over the next couple of months I'd be alot more confident of securing top four. But like you say, it's still ultimately in our own hands.

I'd agree with that. There's no way I'm suggesting we're nailed on for exactly that reason. I'd started my spreadsheet before the Burnley game and ten minutes in I was getting ready to chuck it in the trash.

Based on our form to date, having a couple of chances to actively take points off our rivals might be a good thing but we are where we are. We have to take the opportunities we've struggled with. The message I'm taking from the mini league run-in is that we have a great opportunity but it's still up to us to grasp it.
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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #31 on: March 14, 2017, 08:39:26 am »
Very interesting. I didn't actually realise our rivals had to play eachother on quite so many occasions.

As has been stated already though - us not playing as many big teams is not a help to us, but a hindrance. We are guaranteed to fuck up against small teams. Given our history of capitulating against the Burnleys and Bournemouths of this world, and Arsenal/Utd's history of rolling them over with ease - I still think we're outsiders in this top 4 race.

Would be very nice if we could squeeze into that top 4 and have a positive summer window.
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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #32 on: March 14, 2017, 10:35:55 am »
It's good that the teams around us will obviously take points off each other. I have to he honest though, if we still had to play three or four of them over the next couple of months I'd be alot more confident of securing top four. But like you say, it's still ultimately in our own hands.

Indeed. It's not logical to say having the fewest "big games" remaining is an advantage for us because a) our PPG is better in those games than against the bottom thirteen and b) it would have allowed us to take more points directly from them. The latter in particular would have proved particularly useful against a side like Arsenal who generally are very good at beating the sides they should.

That said our record in those games is ridiculous in any case. We literally haven't lost any ground to any of them (even if, God forbid, we lost on Sunday, we'd still be "even" with City) so if we don't get top four we all know where it's gone wrong.

I think the West Brom, Stoke, Watford and West Ham away's will define our season. On paper they look exactly the type of teams we struggle against, so if we can come out of those with say only one loss, we should be on course.

Offline Alan_X

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #33 on: March 14, 2017, 10:41:47 am »
Indeed. It's not logical to say having the fewest "big games" remaining is an advantage for us because a) our PPG is better in those games than against the bottom thirteen and b) it would have allowed us to take more points directly from them. The latter in particular would have proved particularly useful against a side like Arsenal who generally are very good at beating the sides they should.

That said our record in those games is ridiculous in any case. We literally haven't lost any ground to any of them (even if, God forbid, we lost on Sunday, we'd still be "even" with City) so if we don't get top four we all know where it's gone wrong.

I think the West Brom, Stoke, Watford and West Ham away's will define our season. On paper they look exactly the type of teams we struggle against, so if we can come out of those with say only one loss, we should be on course.

The possible advantage isn't us having fewer games against the rest of the top six. It's the number of games they all have against each other.
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Offline LallanaInPyjamas

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #34 on: March 14, 2017, 10:43:40 am »
The possible advantage isn't us having fewer games against the rest of the top six. It's the number of games they all have against each other.

True. I guess the best case scenario for us now is for City and Spurs to really turn up in those games and help create a gap between ourselves and Arsenal/United.

Given they're both at home to the other two (and I think they're better sides) it's far from impossible.

Offline Sir Psycho Sexy

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #35 on: March 14, 2017, 10:50:10 am »
Really don't think Utd will do enough. Hopefully Arsenal's toxic mood will have an impact on them and they'll falter., as I see them as our main competitors
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Offline Alan_X

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #36 on: March 14, 2017, 11:00:10 am »
True. I guess the best case scenario for us now is for City and Spurs to really turn up in those games and help create a gap between ourselves and Arsenal/United.

Given they're both at home to the other two (and I think they're better sides) it's far from impossible.

Yes - given our form against shite teams we're better off hoping Spurs, City and Chelsea consolidate by stuffing United and Arsenal. One or both of Arsenal and United will drop points when they play each other.
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Offline Buenasnoches

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #37 on: March 14, 2017, 11:10:10 am »
I'm fairly confident that we will finish top 4. With Utd and one other missing out, Spurs or Arsenal.

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Offline Alan_X

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #38 on: March 14, 2017, 11:11:27 am »
I can't see Chelsea losing their lead now. But until it's mathematically impossible who knows?
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Offline jwill2127

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #39 on: March 14, 2017, 11:35:40 am »
My worry is city beat us, we cant carry on beating the top 6 teams and then Everton eventually beat us... If we beat both we will get top 4.
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