Ok fair enough I understand people take this serious, but you say I'm taking the piss then say I'm a simpleton? I've not been evasive, you asked what so I think it takes to win the league and I thought you were taking the piss out of me as that's obvious, get more points(or the same points but better goal difference). I was genuinely interested what an ALP could be and then when I found out what it was I found it a bit daft as it doesn't matter who are the supposed difficult teams to beat and are the supposed easy teams to beat all that matters is who get the most points whoever they come against. Also a 'hard' team could become an 'easy' team due to injuries and/or European commitments. An ' easy' team can become 'hard' due to a relegation fight? Like I said in an earlier(now deleted for some reason) post there are way to many variables. I hope I've explained myself and haven't caused too much offence. Also the only reason I kept coming back to this thread is because people were quoting me.
Ok, well let's move on.
In answer to the points you raise:
The idea here is to set a firm target for what we need to do regardless of what other teams do. This is a target we can look at before a ball is kicked or at any point in the season, it doesn't change from week to week or season to season. So your "more points than anyone else" is replaced with something more concrete.
We have no control over how many points other teams notch up in games against one another. So the APLT sets a simple target of 90 points and measures performance against that target rather than the shifting goalposts of what other teams can or might do.
If you actually look at the record of league winning sides closely, you will see that this model is very close to the real situation. It first relies on the fact that teams who win the league tend to win most or all of their home games.
So the first part is simple: winning all the home games will get you 57 points on the board.
That leaves 33 points to pick up from your away games. Again, looking through the records shows that the team that wins the league will typically beat the weakest sides away more often than the strongest sides.
If you drew every away game (which used to be seen as the key to winning the league) you'd end up with 19 of those 33 points, so you need to win seven games away to make up the difference.
The seven teams you have the best chance of beating will be the three newly promoted sides and the four lowest placed surviving teams from last season.
As you say, it's certainly possible for one of those teams to be better than that the following season (heroically so in Leicester's case) but it happens less often than you might think.