Author Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17  (Read 252458 times)

Offline The Real Rasta

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #80 on: September 12, 2016, 06:36:23 pm »
I must admit, I never used to read this thread because based on the title I thought it was one of those things that were based on if decisions had gone our way etc.
The thing is it takes about a minute to understand, it is brilliant in its simplicity and at this time of the year - especially with our start- puts things into perspective. Thanks to prof and everyone else that gets involved.
As did I  ;D

Offline drmick

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #81 on: September 12, 2016, 07:12:41 pm »


How about grey for Utd in honour of their best-ever kit?

Are you sure you posted the right photo? All I can see are Southampton players haha!

Offline Dpt1983

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #82 on: September 12, 2016, 07:23:06 pm »
Well you come into a thread, take the piss and then get all coy and evasive when people ask you simple questions. What would you call that?

If you genuinely think the idea is "daft" why hang around if you aren't willing to explain what you mean by that, or have a useful discussion where you might learn something new? Instead, you're just being a bit rude. The fact you can't see the point doesn't mean it's pointless. Saying that just makes you look like a simpleton.

And as you might have picked up, it's not exactly the first time someone has come into one of these threads and declared it to be a waste of time because they don't understand what it's for or how it works. We're used to it. We know it's not something everyone is going to be interested in, or able to follow, but nobody is forcing you keep coming back.

On the other hand, we're always happy to try and explain what it's all about if you're genuinely interested.
Ok fair enough I understand people take this serious, but you say I'm taking the piss then say I'm a simpleton? I've not been evasive, you asked what so I think it takes to win the league and I thought you were taking the piss out of me as that's obvious, get more points(or the same points but better goal difference). I was genuinely interested what an ALP could be and then when I found out what it was I found it a bit daft as it doesn't matter who are the supposed difficult teams to beat and are the supposed easy teams to beat all that matters is who get the most points whoever they come against. Also a 'hard' team could become an 'easy' team due to injuries and/or European commitments. An ' easy' team can become 'hard' due to a relegation fight? Like I said in an earlier(now deleted for some reason) post there are way to many variables. I hope I've explained myself and haven't caused too much offence. Also the only reason I kept coming back to this thread is because people were quoting me.

Offline Nessy76

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #83 on: September 12, 2016, 08:52:19 pm »
Ok fair enough I understand people take this serious, but you say I'm taking the piss then say I'm a simpleton? I've not been evasive, you asked what so I think it takes to win the league and I thought you were taking the piss out of me as that's obvious, get more points(or the same points but better goal difference). I was genuinely interested what an ALP could be and then when I found out what it was I found it a bit daft as it doesn't matter who are the supposed difficult teams to beat and are the supposed easy teams to beat all that matters is who get the most points whoever they come against. Also a 'hard' team could become an 'easy' team due to injuries and/or European commitments. An ' easy' team can become 'hard' due to a relegation fight? Like I said in an earlier(now deleted for some reason) post there are way to many variables. I hope I've explained myself and haven't caused too much offence. Also the only reason I kept coming back to this thread is because people were quoting me.

Ok, well let's move on.
In answer to the points you raise:

The idea here is to set a firm target for what we need to do regardless of what other teams do. This is a target we can look at before a ball is kicked or at any point in the season, it doesn't change from week to week or season to season. So your "more points than anyone else" is replaced with something more concrete.

We have no control over how many points other teams notch up in games against one another. So the APLT sets a simple target of 90 points and measures performance against that target rather than the shifting goalposts of what other teams can or might do.

If you actually look at the record of league winning sides closely, you will see that this model is very close to the real situation. It first relies on the fact that teams who win the league tend to win most or all of their home games.

So the first part is simple: winning all the home games will get you 57 points on the board.

That leaves 33 points to pick up from your away games. Again, looking through the records shows that the team that wins the league will typically beat the weakest sides away more often than the strongest sides.

If you drew every away game (which used to be seen as the key to winning the league) you'd end up with 19 of those 33 points, so you need to win seven games away to make up the difference.

The seven teams you have the best chance of beating will be the three newly promoted sides and the four lowest placed surviving teams from last season.

As you say, it's certainly possible for one of those teams to be better than that the following season (heroically so in Leicester's case) but it happens less often than you might think.
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Offline Dpt1983

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #84 on: September 12, 2016, 10:25:29 pm »
Ok, well let's move on.
In answer to the points you raise:

The idea here is to set a firm target for what we need to do regardless of what other teams do. This is a target we can look at before a ball is kicked or at any point in the season, it doesn't change from week to week or season to season. So your "more points than anyone else" is replaced with something more concrete.

We have no control over how many points other teams notch up in games against one another. So the APLT sets a simple target of 90 points and measures performance against that target rather than the shifting goalposts of what other teams can or might do.

If you actually look at the record of league winning sides closely, you will see that this model is very close to the real situation. It first relies on the fact that teams who win the league tend to win most or all of their home games.

So the first part is simple: winning all the home games will get you 57 points on the board.

That leaves 33 points to pick up from your away games. Again, looking through the records shows that the team that wins the league will typically beat the weakest sides away more often than the strongest sides.

If you drew every away game (which used to be seen as the key to winning the league) you'd end up with 19 of those 33 points, so you need to win seven games away to make up the difference.

The seven teams you have the best chance of beating will be the three newly promoted sides and the four lowest placed surviving teams from last season.

As you say, it's certainly possible for one of those teams to be better than that the following season (heroically so in Leicester's case) but it happens less often than you might think.

Thanks for the reply mate. I understand it a bit better now.

Offline drmick

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #85 on: September 12, 2016, 11:07:44 pm »
I said in last year's thread I can't get my head round par 3 being easier than par 1 when in golf par 3 is easy and par 5 are harder (well they were for the 12yr old version of me that played golf).

I translate your terms as 3-pointers and 1-pointers in my head.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #86 on: September 12, 2016, 11:40:26 pm »
I said in last year's thread I can't get my head round par 3 being easier than par 1 when in golf par 3 is easy and par 5 are harder (well they were for the 12yr old version of me that played golf).

I translate your terms as 3-pointers and 1-pointers in my head.

Yes, the par thing can be a bit tricky at first. Man City are doing the best currently, but if you're used to golf scores, at +2 they look like they're doing the worst.

Offline riismeister

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #87 on: September 12, 2016, 11:48:54 pm »
I said in last year's thread I can't get my head round par 3 being easier than par 1 when in golf par 3 is easy and par 5 are harder (well they were for the 12yr old version of me that played golf).

I translate your terms as 3-pointers and 1-pointers in my head.
The difference here is that in football you need more points to win (above par is better), while in golf you need fewer shots to win (below par is better).

Offline Boaty McBoatface

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #88 on: September 12, 2016, 11:49:41 pm »
Suggestions?  As much as possible I try to keep it close to club colours.

Is it possible to do multicoloured stripes?

Arsenal - red and white
mancs - red and black or red,white and black
spurs - blue and white
Maybe Leicester could be gold this year because they're champions.

Offline Nessy76

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #89 on: September 13, 2016, 12:07:21 am »
The difference here is that in football you need more points to win (above par is better), while in golf you need fewer shots to win (below par is better).

One of many reasons why golf is a stupid game. ;-)
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #90 on: September 13, 2016, 04:43:47 am »
Is it possible to do multicoloured stripes?

Arsenal - red and white
mancs - red and black or red,white and black
spurs - blue and white
Maybe Leicester could be gold this year because they're champions.
Just to free a color for Everton?  ;)
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #91 on: September 13, 2016, 10:06:04 am »
APLT Full Table: Round 4
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Offline sminp

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #92 on: September 13, 2016, 10:23:46 am »
Everton have had a good start, only blip being an away draw to Spurs which is not a bad result for them. Very early days but I think they'll be a contender to replace Leicester later in the season if we're looking to keep the number of teams we currently have. They've got a good manager and a reasonable squad.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #93 on: September 13, 2016, 10:27:40 am »
Everton have had a good start, only blip being an away draw to Spurs which is not a bad result for them. Very early days but I think they'll be a contender to replace Leicester later in the season if we're looking to keep the number of teams we currently have. They've got a good manager and a reasonable squad.

Victories against Sunderland, Stoke and West Brom so far. The test of where they are is yet to come. They have Boro, Bournemouth and Palace next so could flatter to deceive a while longer. I suspect that their November and December will then be brutal.

Offline sminp

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #94 on: September 13, 2016, 10:32:51 am »
Victories against Sunderland, Stoke and West Brom so far. The test of where they are is yet to come. They have Boro, Bournemouth and Palace next so could flatter to deceive a while longer. I suspect that their November and December will then be brutal.

Absolutely, the time to re-assess will be around Xmas/new year however they've done their job well so far and have a good manager.  It's the par 3s against the likes of West Ham and Leicester that will be their true test of being best of the rest and possibly nicking a Europa League spot if the cups are won by high placed teams.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #95 on: September 13, 2016, 10:42:13 am »
Everton have had a good start, only blip being an away draw to Spurs which is not a bad result for them. Very early days but I think they'll be a contender to replace Leicester later in the season if we're looking to keep the number of teams we currently have. They've got a good manager and a reasonable squad.

Pedant alert: it was a home draw vs Spurs.

Offline mabbympb

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #96 on: September 13, 2016, 10:43:12 am »
Aaah, the annual re-explanation and attempt to re-invent the wheel, of the concept of something that works so well :butt

Offline sminp

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #97 on: September 13, 2016, 11:03:14 am »
Aaah, the annual re-explanation and attempt to re-invent the wheel, of the concept of something that works so well :butt

You're a bit late with this mate, he shut up yesterday don't get him started again lol

Pedant alert: it was a home draw vs Spurs.

So it was. Still not a bad result for their aspirations
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #98 on: September 13, 2016, 11:37:56 am »
So it was. Still not a bad result for their aspirations

Agreed!

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #99 on: September 16, 2016, 10:22:15 am »
Win the game against Chelsea and we will have got the points/results to stay in title form. Yeah we will most likely be 5 off City still by end of the weekend but fuck it, i'm ignoring everyone else and soley focusing on us. I'm taking the season in 5 game blocks and setting a points tally of what I think will be a needed points return to be in title contention.


84 points is what I've aimed for. To get that we need to beat the bottom 10 home and away, take 4 points from the games against 8-10th teams and then draws home and away against the other 6 teams in the top 7.

With that in mind 9 points would be the goal for our first 5. Beat Burnley and Leicester and draw away to Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs. If Man City or anyone else won the league by getting those results against those 5 teams nobody would say any of those results is below what is needed to win the league. We have dropped the 3 against Burnley, however if we win tonight we will have more than made up for that and will actually be 1 point ahead of where we need to be to challenge for the league at the end of the season.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #100 on: September 16, 2016, 09:52:59 pm »
Get in.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #101 on: September 16, 2016, 09:53:28 pm »
Back up to 0 ;D
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #102 on: September 16, 2016, 09:55:03 pm »
Burnley and Spurs result especially makes me so annoyed because we could/should be on max points but to take 10 points from those tough 5 games is brilliant.

As I said in my post above, it's more than good enough return from those opening 5 to keep us in title challenging form.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #103 on: September 16, 2016, 09:55:15 pm »
Fuck the Daily Mail.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #104 on: September 16, 2016, 09:56:05 pm »
Back up to 0 ;D

I've got some good news for you... we're up to +1 as we gained 2 points there.

Also we're guaranteed to be in the top 2 in the APLT at the end of the weekend
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Offline riismeister

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #105 on: September 16, 2016, 09:57:04 pm »

Offline Nessy76

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #106 on: September 16, 2016, 10:02:38 pm »
So far we've played 3 par 1 games and come away with 7 points. That's money in the bank, if we could just get the consistency against the weaker sides, we'd be looking at a challenge. As it stands, we've now more than made up for the Burnley loss.

That wasn't last season's Chelsea, either. They will be there until the run in for the title in my opinion, barring an injury crisis.

Great result, it's becoming a tradition to win at the Bridge now.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #108 on: September 16, 2016, 10:12:39 pm »
+1.  8)
I've got some good news for you... we're up to +1 as we gained 2 points there.

Also we're guaranteed to be in the top 2 in the APLT at the end of the weekend

Even better then ;D Thought we were on -2 for some reason!
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #109 on: September 16, 2016, 10:18:15 pm »
A comment on the Burnley match which I haven't read elsewhere and don't like to shout too loudly (so I'll hide it in here)...

They used their home advantage to stop us playing our game.  The grass was left long so it played really slow.  When you train every day on pitches like bowling greens, it's a huge difference.  The players left so many passes short and the interchange of sharp passes we use was almost impossible to implement.

It'll happen again too.  If I was an opposition manager at a lesser team, I'd do it against us every time.  It is easier to do in August due to grass growing rates at that time compared to the middle of winter.  But letting a pitch get saturated will have a similar effect.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #110 on: September 16, 2016, 10:19:56 pm »
As Nessy says, we've made up for the Burnley result there.

Bar Burnley I can't think of a bad performance yet either, even in the League Cup we've looked boss. It's early days but my heart is beginning to tell me to dream of a pretty damn good season afoot.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #111 on: September 16, 2016, 10:24:16 pm »
A comment on the Burnley match which I haven't read elsewhere and don't like to shout too loudly (so I'll hide it in here)...

They used their home advantage to stop us playing our game.  The grass was left long so it played really slow.  When you train every day on pitches like bowling greens, it's a huge difference.  The players left so many passes short and the interchange of sharp passes we use was almost impossible to implement.

It'll happen again too.  If I was an opposition manager at a lesser team, I'd do it against us every time.  It is easier to do in August due to grass growing rates at that time compared to the middle of winter.  But letting a pitch get saturated will have a similar effect.

Taking "agricultural football" a bit too literally there, the swine.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #112 on: September 16, 2016, 10:25:11 pm »
I started thinking at the start of the 2nd half 'Yes, getting 3 pts in a Par 1 game will be huge' and gave a Klopp-style fist pump.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #113 on: September 16, 2016, 10:29:30 pm »
I started thinking at the start of the 2nd half 'Yes, getting 3 pts in a Par 1 game will be huge' and gave a Klopp-style fist pump.
I spend too much time on RAWK  :P

I had to check that Chelsea still count as Par 1 after last season. They were certainly in danger of losing that status at one point.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #114 on: September 16, 2016, 10:33:17 pm »
I started thinking at the start of the 2nd half 'Yes, getting 3 pts in a Par 1 game will be huge' and gave a Klopp-style fist pump.
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Offline Always_A_Red

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #115 on: September 16, 2016, 11:25:35 pm »
What a day to be alive! Get innnnn!! ;D
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #116 on: September 16, 2016, 11:39:46 pm »
one problem with wining Friday night football is the agonising wait for the graph update......
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #117 on: September 16, 2016, 11:41:20 pm »
one problem with wining Friday night football is the agonising wait for the graph update......
The positive is the three points is in the bag and you can enjoy the entire weekend without it possibly being ruined by footie ;)
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Offline Mr_Shane

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #118 on: September 16, 2016, 11:44:37 pm »
All the other teams play teams they should be beating, BUT they have played midweek. Is it too early for an upset  in one of the other games?

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #119 on: September 16, 2016, 11:46:53 pm »
All the other teams play teams they should be beating, BUT they have played midweek. Is it too early for an upset  in one of the other games?
Arsenal going up to Hull could make the difference. The rest seemingly have piss easy home games.
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