Author Topic: Statistics and Analytics - insight into our performance  (Read 192560 times)

Offline Flinstone

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #680 on: October 8, 2015, 08:11:52 pm »
Laptop gurus - the lot of you.

In all seriousness, where can one compile or download raw data such as the ones Tailor etc are using?
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Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #681 on: October 9, 2015, 10:50:25 am »
Cheers for the comments, guys. Here's the extended 12" remix of that Tomkins Times piece ;-)

Now that Jürgen Klopp has been confirmed as the new manager of Liverpool, it’s time to look at a few stats from his time at Dortmund, to see if his championship winning sides were that good, or if the team in his final season were that bad.

As usual, time constraints prevent me from going really in-depth, but I’ve returned to an old favourite of mine for this article: Shots on Target ratio (SoTR). It’s a great stat as it’s really easy to figure out, using widely available data, and best of all (as this article shows) it’s almost as good as fancy expected goals models. Simple but effective; perfect.

I first wrote about it in-depth in 2013 (here), but for the uninitiated, SoTR is a simple measure of how many of the total shots on target in a game one team has. So if Team A has six shots on target and Team B have four, their Shots on Target ratios are 60% and 40% respectively.

For one game it may not tell us a lot, but across a whole season it can be very useful, as teams tend to finish roughly in order of their SoTR. Using six seasons of data from the Premier League, I have found that the champions average 66%, second place posts 64%, third 62% and fourth, you guessed it, 60%.

I haven’t checked if these figures apply to Germany, where there are fewer financial behemoths and only eighteen teams in the division, but the below table certainly suggests that similar figures are probably in play in the Bundesliga; the two Dortmund sides with a figure below 60% both finished outside the top four, for instance.

What we have here is a table showing the shot figures for Dortmund in each of Klopp’s seven seasons, the same years for Bayern Munich (to provide some context from Germany) and also the last three seasons for Liverpool. The clubs are sorted by their shots on target ratios.



Here are the main points of interest for me:

•I’ve looked at seven seasons of Premier League data for this, and only one team has either averaged over 6.8 shots on target per game, or posted a SoTR of over 70%. In fact, it was one team who did both: the Chelsea side of 2009/10 (whose manager Liverpool definitely haven’t spoken to), yet we can see here that Klopp’s Dortmund managed both of these feats on their way to the title in 2010/11, and also hit over seven shots on target per game in 2013/14.
•Dortmund weren’t as bad in 2014/15 as the league table suggests. Colin Trainor proved that here a few months ago, but again, the simplicity of the shots data makes it clear too. They allowed their opponents the second fewest shots in the division (behind Bayern, inevitably), and their SoTR was (by English standards) akin to that of a third placed team.
Over his seven seasons with Dortmund, Klopp’s team averaged a SoTR of 63.7%; if he can repeat that at Anfield then he will surely bring Champions League qualification (and who knows what else) to Liverpool.

I thought it’d also be interesting to look at the shots in the box stats for the above teams (though I can only get this from 2009/10 onwards), and once again, the numbers paint Dortmund in a decent light. The teams are sorted here by their box shot difference.



How many of the shots in the box that you score at one end and concede at the other is obviously hugely relevant (else Brendan Rodgers’ team should’ve finished far higher in his debut season) but the stats here again demonstrate that Dortmund were a well balanced team under Jurgen Klopp, and also that they were perhaps unlucky to struggle as badly as they did last year.

Over the six seasons here, Dortmund’s average shots in the box difference was 4.5 per game, whilst Rodgers’ Liverpool posted 3.6 across his three full seasons, and Klopp’s team posted above 10 shots per game in the penalty area across a season four times whereas Liverpool haven’t topped ten in any of the last three years.

This tweet from WhoScored also provided a few interesting insights

GRAPHIC: Jürgen Klopp #LFC pic.twitter.com/4vwxlmazGE

— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) October 8, 2015

The one that particularly caught my eye regarded scoring counter attack goals; Liverpool scored 22 times on the break over the last six years, whilst Dortmund were scoring 48 (and from 24 fewer matches too). With the pace the Reds have up top, we can hope to see more of this on Klopp’s watch at Anfield.

The final stat of interest that I have recently noticed is that Klopp’s Dortmund were not prone to committing Opta-defined defensive errors which lead to shots. This was a problem for Liverpool throughout Brendan Rodgers’ time in charge; for instance, the Reds’ previous two 1-1 draws in the league both saw leads wiped out by a defensive error.

In total in Klopp’s final three seasons, Dortmund made 34 defensive errors. By contrast, Liverpool made 36 in Brendan Rodgers’ first season alone, and were in the top three Premier League teams for most errors in every one of his three full seasons (and at the time of writing, also 2015/16 so far).

There will now be countless articles out there providing a variety of in-depth analyses of Klopp’s tactics, his favoured playing style and so on, and with this brief scratch of the surface I can’t hope to compete. But what I think I can say is this….

At his Liverpool best, Brendan Rodgers built a phenomenal attack but it was combined with a flimsy defence, which was prone to mistakes and allowing good chances. But at his Dortmund best, Jürgen Klopp had both a phenomenal attack AND an excellent defence, and repeating that will give him a fantastic chance of succeeding in what I still believe is arguably the hardest job in football.

Welcome to Liverpool, Jürgen. Make us dream please!


Offline kaz1983

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #682 on: October 10, 2015, 06:58:37 am »
What do people think about the use of Average Defensive Distance – ADD and Passes allowed Per Defensive Action – PPDA?

It's interesting because it's the first of all Average Defensive Distance looks at:
Quote
''The average distance up the pitch where a team performs its defensive actions. For all tackles (failed and completed), interceptions and fouls we use the distance between event and the goal line of the defending team. The average of all of those is the Average Defensive Distance. Teams that perform their defensive actions high up the pitch, have a high ADD, those that defend primarily close to their own goal have a low ADD.'' Crystal Palace under Tony Pulis had an ADD of just 36.6, this mean Palace defends 3.3 meters deeper than the average team, and 10.1 meters deeper than Bayern.
The defensive actions that are being using are:

Tackles
Interceptions
Challenges (failed tackles)
Fouls

The Passes allowed Per Defensive Action looks at:
Quote
The amount of passes that a team allows, then divide that number by the amount of defensive actions made. By convenience, we compute this metric over the passes and defensive actions made at least 40 meters from the goal line (look below) .. in other words the final 2/3's of the pitch or a tad higher. The lowest PPDA (i.e. the highest amount of pressure) is noted by Bayern at 6.9, for every 6.9 passes that their opponents make in that zone - Bayern make one defensive action. Compare to a team who sits off letting the opposition have the ball, very few defensive actions higher up the pitch = a higher PPDA. This looks at how far your players are positioned up the pitch and how quickly or how long you delay until you look to win the ball back - put in a defensive action.

Combining ADD and PPDA

Both metrics share common ground, but I’d make the case they are different enough to be valuable. What’s more, they can bring even more insight when combined. ADD tells you where teams performed their defense, PPDA tells you how much defense away from goal they performed. ADD is how high their defensive line was, PPDA is how intense the press was. As is said in the article below ''generally, teams that play high defensive lines also use intense press (Bayern), and teams that play deep defensive lines use low press (Palace)''. It makes complete sense and is a good stat when talking about Klopp's Liverpool in the coming weeks, months and hopefully years.

http://11tegen11.net/2014/11/10/quantifying-gegenpressing/
http://statsbomb.com/2014/07/defensive-metrics-measuring-the-intensity-of-a-high-press/

So you can see how it works, Bayern with their high pressing/high defensive line style of football under Pep (when they loose possession) put in a defensive action every 6 passes the opposition complete and 47 meters away from their goal - on average. Compared to Arsenal who let their opponents have the ball for twice as long average and they defend 6 meters deeper than Bayern - on average. That doesn't read like much but looks far different. You could look at it like bigger a top team Arsenal push up to a similar distance away from their goals as Bayern when they on average make a defensive action (look to win the ball back) but when Arsenal loose possession they retreat 6 meters on average before a defensive action is made, letting their opponents advance with the ball putting pressure on their defenders - after all they let their opponents have the ball, without a defensive action twice as long as Bayern? On the other hand when Bayern have the ball their center backs push past the half way line, looking to come out of defense as they are ball playing center backs. Then they retreat back into shape (5 or so meters) as soon as they loose possession, looking to step out and press if needed. Personally that means they compared to Arsenal are much more proactive about winning the ball ball as quickly as possible, as high up the pitch as possible. I'm pretty sure Bayern's attacking midfielders have a higher number of defensive actions, well it would make sense wouldn't it?

Here is Barcelona under Guardiola. Note Pep's 2010/2011 Barcelona compared to when Vilanova was in charge and Barcelona 17th mid season in La Liga.



As of 2013/2014 Bayern under Pep have a the lowest PPDA (i.e. the highest amount of pressure) in the dataset is again noted by Bayern at 6.9. So, for every 6.9 passes that their opponents make in that zone which is from their opponents goal to 40 meters from the Bayern goal, Bayern make one defensive action. His Barcelona side had a PPDA of 5.9 at the best, so for every 5.9 passes that their opponents make in that zone (i.e. further than 40 meters from the Barca goal) Barca make one defensive action.



During Nigel Adkins’ they had a rolling average PPDA of 12 to 14. Under Pochettino the Saints’ PPDA value dropped, with the result being a value was less than 8.

We can see that they maintained this level throughout the remainder of the 2012/13 season.

« Last Edit: October 10, 2015, 07:00:19 am by BMW »

Offline kundalini

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #683 on: October 19, 2015, 06:10:43 am »
but on the whole Liverpool concede too often when their opponents shoot in the box. Despite not letting them shoot in the box too often. Football, eh?

So is it just bad luck, or something deeper? Answers on a postcard, please!

It's related to defensive choices.

Do you place an emphasis on stopping the cross or would you rather make sure you have enough men in position in the box to make life difficult for opposing forwards ?

On corners do you want a man on both posts ? Or would you rather have him positioned to clear the ball before the opposition can get a header in ?

Does your keeper come for crosses, catch or punch the vast majority but look an idiot when he misses, allowing an easy goal for the opposition, or should he stay on his line and make several routine saves as well as conceding the occasional bullet header ?

Use a high line, attempt to play offside, then get in trouble on the few occasions the opposition gets through. Or park the bus and accept 20 low quality shots that you hope don't get deflected, wrong-footing the keeper, ending up in the net.

Whenever a defender makes a proactive attempt to stop an attack, there is the risk he gets it wrong, the opponent gets through and has a big chance of scoring. Reasonably competent proactive defending will reduce the number of shots conceded.

Same applies to playing out from the back. Rodger's Swansea side conceded relatively few goals simply by sitting on the ball for large chunks of the game. But each time a mistake is made, it is likely to be costly one as possession is won so high up the pitch, with the defence out of position.

If you place an emphasis on restricting the number of shots the opposition take within the penalty box, it is highly likely that the chances they do get will be a of a higher average quality than if you let them shoot but tried to block the effort or restricted them in a way that helped the keeper make comfortable saves most of the time.

Offline kaz1983

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #684 on: October 19, 2015, 07:30:19 am »
I'm going to do the Average Defensive Distance – ADD and Passes allowed Per Defensive Action – on Liverpool vs Tottenham... I'm thinking it will be interesting.

Offline pjshaun

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #685 on: October 19, 2015, 08:04:18 am »
You guys have been doing an excellent job mjk, BEAST, BMW and BassTunedToRed. Keep them stats and analysis coming.  :wave
« Last Edit: October 19, 2015, 08:07:46 am by pjshaun »

Offline kaz1983

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #686 on: October 19, 2015, 12:40:11 pm »
Okay some interesting numbers thrown up, with regards to the defensive side of the game.

Quote
Defensive actions against Stoke; 28
Defensive actions against Bournemouth; 27
Defensive actions against Arsenal; 30
Defensive actions against West Ham; 21
Defensive actions against Norwich; 22
Defensive actions against Man United; 21
Defensive actions against Aston Villa; 29
Defensive actions against Everton; 33
Defensive actions against Tottenham; 34
Who remembers the Tottenham 0 vs 5 Liverpool, in the 2013/14 season? We performed 37 defensive actions in just inside their half (from the base of the center circle)

Then look at the total amount of passes our opposition made or we let them make - how ever you want to see it.
Quote
Total Stoke passes made in our half; 42
Total Bournemouth passes made in our half; 96
Total Arsenal passes made in our half; 227
Total West Ham passes made in our half; 46
Total Norwich passes made in our half; 70
Total Man United passes made in our half; 108
Total Aston Villa passes made in our half; 42
Total Everton passes made in our half; 85
Total Tottenham passes made in our half; 62
In the 2013/14 season away against Tottenham we let them play 55 passes in our half.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2015, 01:12:42 pm by BMW »

Offline pjshaun

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #687 on: October 19, 2015, 01:02:51 pm »
It was Spurs 0-5 Liverpool in 2013/14 and it was AVB's last game in charge for Tottenham. They were totally clueless in that game and we were absolutely brilliant because Suarez was the center of everything.

Offline Petadroli

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #688 on: October 19, 2015, 01:30:09 pm »
It was Spurs 0-5 Liverpool in 2013/14 and it was AVB's last game in charge for Tottenham. They were totally clueless in that game and we were absolutely brilliant because Suarez was the center of everything.

And they had to play with 10 men for 40 minutes or so.
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Offline kaz1983

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #689 on: October 19, 2015, 01:37:41 pm »
Yep that's right I'm remembering that game better now... cheers.

Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #690 on: October 19, 2015, 06:45:46 pm »
You guys have been doing an excellent job mjk, BEAST, BMW and BassTunedToRed. Keep them stats and analysis coming.  :wave

Thanks very much, and agree re the others. Doing an Anfield Index stats podcast this week to try to assess the Rodgers era in it's entirety, watch this space....

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #691 on: October 21, 2015, 02:12:02 pm »
I was thinking about how we could measure the effectiveness of our pressing and counter pressing; having looked at a few conversations on twitter, (BassTunedtoRed) if we look at pass completion rate of the opponent in opposition defensive third, it could show how many times the opponent looses the ball due to pressing and counter pressing.

So I looked at Tottenham's pass completion in their defensive third for all their premier league matches this season. They average 92% pass comp. rate in their defensive third. Against us they averaged 93% So our press/counter press doesn't seem to have much of a difference in their defensive third. However I looked at the number of passes they attempted in their defensive third and it was 84 times more than their league average (164 compared to their usual average of 80) suggesting due to our high press they weren't able to move out quickly from their defense.

Another bit of analysis to do for high pressing systems is to look at opposition pass incompletion rate. Michale Caley looked at this for Bayer Leverkusen

"Bayer have conceded the lowest opposition pass completion percentage in the Bundesliga. About 35 percent of passes attempted against Leverkusen do not find their target. Bayern Munich stand second with 33 percent of opposition passes incomplete.

In this statistic again there are no EPL analogues. Arsenal lead the league with a 24 percent opposition incomplete pass rate."


I had a look at our opposition incomplete pass rate for the 2013/2014 season thinking it would be quite high compared to Arsenal however it wasn't at approx. 21%. This season before Klopp took over it was 22%. In his first game it rose to 26%. It will be interesting to see if their is any correlation in future games.


*This only shows the defensive side of pressing and doesn't really tell us much about the attacking outcomes of pressing/counter pressing.

Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #692 on: October 22, 2015, 12:01:14 pm »
Good stuff, mjk.

I wondered if Spurs would've passed backwards more than they previously had thanks to our pressing, but they hadn't (I don't have the figures to hand but they're on Squawka).

Offline Ashburton

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #693 on: October 22, 2015, 02:47:15 pm »
Good stuff, mjk.

I wondered if Spurs would've passed backwards more than they previously had thanks to our pressing, but they hadn't (I don't have the figures to hand but they're on Squawka).

I'd typically expect players to not pass it backwards more often, because if they know their opposition will press them regardless of where the ball is on the pitch - letting them press the defenders or goalkeeper is more likely to result in an opportunity to concede than keeping the ball up the pitch.  Additionally, the most technical players are typically midfielders and forwards, which tends to mean better technique and ability to withstand pressure/pressing.

To look at the effectiveness of the press I'd rather look at:

'clear cut chances conceded' - In theory, pressing should stop creative players from being able to spot good opportunities for through balls as often
'chances created against' - Again, reducing creativity
'average passes per chance created against' - Are you forcing them to rush their play? Are they creating suboptimal opportunities?

Perhaps the reason the opposition pass completion being comparatively higher in the EPL is the tendency for teams to hit on the counter-attack instead of play through the middle.  It is much easier to hit a ball to a winger for a cross in to the box, after bursting through the lines, than the technical and creative skill needed to thread balls through the congested middle of the park when a team sits back.  This tendency for wide play drags a defence wider to compensate, and opens more space in the middle of the pitch which is less conducive to inaccurate passes and opposition interceptions - it could also explain why Arsenal are the best side in the EPL for interceptions due to this space being congested; although it is done at the cost of being vulnerable on the break.

As Klopp himself has said, the important part of his style is press and win the ball, in order to create opportunities is the transition phase, something which is difficult to instill without a great deal of practice on the training pitch.  I'd expect the number of opportunities to score may not rise as quickly as some expect this season, however the defensive side of the game certainly needs buy-in from the players, something I expect he will maintain this throughout the season (though winter games may cause more injuries, which may complicate things).

Am interested to see what occurs in January with you lot, too.  The recent publicity surrounding Marchisio does point to an all round, capable box to box midfielder with creativity in addition to being able to carry the ball.  I'm sure Milner is looking forward to another spell on the wing due to the necessity of keeping four 'attacking' players upfield to press (otherwise there is always an out ball).

Offline Cattive Maniere

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #694 on: October 26, 2015, 11:28:30 am »



Offline Dubred

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #695 on: October 26, 2015, 11:40:45 am »




Used to love it when other teams where the butt of these stats and we were the ones scoring all the goals  ;D

Not so much fun now

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #696 on: November 16, 2015, 12:32:53 am »
Interesting bit on the impact of the Europa League on domestic performances here:

http://www.espnfc.com.au/#blog/espn-fc-united-blog/68/post/2709321/does-europa-league-participation-harm-league-form

I think the level of analysis could go a lot deeper than it does, but it does provide on the surface a decent starting point for discussing how to approach the EL.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2015, 12:43:26 am by Redcap »

Offline Kopenhagen

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #697 on: January 22, 2016, 12:13:32 am »
"There is no final victory, just as there is no final defeat. There is just the same battle to be fought over and over again."

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #698 on: January 25, 2016, 01:55:12 pm »
On our defending from corners (from Dan Kennett)
Quote
This season we are conceding from 8.2% of our corners vs a 4 year PL average of 3.7% (99.9th percentile)
Or in other words that's 1 goal every 33 corners for the average Premier League team. This season we are conceding 1 goal every 12 corners!
Previous LFC seasons: 12/13 - 25 corners per goal
                                  13/14 - 36 corners per goal
                                  14/15 - 30 corners per goal

He talks abut this more on the Anfield Index Under Pressure podcast

Offline Notfromaroundhere

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #699 on: January 25, 2016, 02:07:52 pm »


What does this mean? Is this where he has taken all his shots from this season, and something to do with expected goal return?

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #700 on: March 21, 2016, 12:00:10 am »
This is an old piece i just found on our lack of fortune at both ends, and that things could reverse in the near future. Like possibly next season. Though of course that shouldn't hide the fact a new keeper is sorely needed, in combination with one further high quality finisher in attack.

-----

For Liverpool, it’s not even funny any more.

Fans with other allegiances may disagree but the slump that Liverpool have found themselves mired in has been deep, repetitive and familiar. This weekend found a new low, with the law of sod taking full effect as they blew a two goal lead against one of the league’s worst teams, Sunderland, within minutes of a fan walkout.

Sometimes, stupid stuff doesn’t go your way, like for example this:
Liverpool have conceded in 26 matches in all competitions this season. They've conceded from the first shot on-target in 21 of the 26.

All the while their head coach is suffering with a suspected bout of appendicitis?

Soap operas would reject this serious of events for implausibility yet this and further defensive woes have been enough to undermine a reasonably encouraging numerical base.  A lot has been written about the low quality of shots during Jurgen Klopp’s reign, but regardless, they have taken a good volume of them: nearly 17 per game. The on target rate is comparatively poor at around 4.4 per game (26%), which reflects the lack of success from range but where the silliness occurs, where things haven’t gone Liverpool’s way, is at the other end. The positive side is that they have conceded very few shots. In twelve out of seventeen Klopp games, they have allowed nine or fewer shots. Only defeats against West Ham and Leicester have seen the opposition create a good volume of shots and shots on target and otherwise, for volume, they have been superb at suppressing the opposition.

The trouble starts when you refer once again to how many of these shots have been kept out of goal. Season long, Liverpool have saved 57.6% of the on target shots they have faced compared to a league average of 69.4%. This is a lower rate than Bournemouth, who have had a horrific season preventing chances and goals and is lower than any full team season recorded over the last six years.  We can make it look worse by looking at Klopp’s era (56.0%) or taking it just to Anfield (48.5%).  No wonder home fans are frustrated; they are witnessing it right now and in front of their very eyes.

While these figures are truly dismal, to endure it is also to this degree is unfortunate and extremely incongruous with the excellent repression of shots.  Despite the poor goalkeeping and individual defensive errors that have effected this misery, a rate this low just will not sustain in the long term.  Repression of opposition shots is an important trait to aspire towards as it is reflective of team quality, an inability to keep the ball out of the net is far more beholden to fate.

The positive takeaway from all this is that some aspects of Klopp’s methods are working and project positively for the future. Some personnel tweaks in the summer, with obvious weaknesses up front and in goal, could well create some solidity where for now we see just mush.  Comparisons have been made with the aspects of Andre Villas Boas’ project at Tottenham: high shot volumes, suppression of opposition shooting and wonky conversion rates at both ends tick all those boxes. However, where Villas Boas’ sticky personality and stubbornness eventually saw his tenure fall apart, Klopp should be able to maintain enough charm to design a team capable of contending for top four next year.

The last Liverpool season to get royally screwed by variance was 2012-13. They were an excellent shots team at both ends that year yet found a way to win only 16 games and finished 7th.  Of course that was the precursor to the Suarez-led rampage towards the title the following year, and while such ambition may seem out of range, this season the unexpected and unforeseen qualities of both Tottenham and Leicester were built from far lower bases. If they can do it then why not Liverpool? If only things could go their way…

Ah hell.

I warned against this kind of nonsense: using Leicester as a blueprint for another team’s future? An example of how each team should dare to dream and that anything is possible?

That lazy comparison is something we may have to get used to.

http://statsbomb.com/2016/02/leicester-and-liverpool-when-it-goes-your-way-and-when-it-doesnt/

Offline Kopenhagen

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #701 on: March 24, 2016, 12:49:50 am »


Source: @natefc
"There is no final victory, just as there is no final defeat. There is just the same battle to be fought over and over again."

Offline SerbianScouser

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #702 on: April 1, 2016, 12:35:30 pm »
Really insightful article on where Liverpool are at the moment from a statistical point of view:

http://statsbomb.com/2016/04/liverpool/

Conclusion

Liverpool are in as good a long-term situation as they’ve been in recent history. They dominate the ball and tilt the field in a way that only Man City and Arsenal can match. This years weaknesses have come down to shot quality which has been heavily influenced by shocking and unlucky proportions of top-tier chances allowed and taken. These will likely even out a good bit without anything changing but the underlying causes there are those that have the easiest fixes: a new goalie, a new centerback and a healthy Sturridge and Coutinho.

Without the ball, only Tottenham can claim to play nearly as well as the Klopp’s squad. If Daniel Sturridge can remain healthy, there is no more complete team heading into next season than Liverpool. Man City and Arsenal’s attacking firepower will make them slight favorites but Liverpool should expect to be the 3rd best team within touching distance of the top starting today and going into next season. Liverpool have the coach and the fundamentals and are right at the edge, the next step isn’t a hard one to make.

Offline harryc

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #703 on: April 1, 2016, 12:56:27 pm »
Really insightful article on where Liverpool are at the moment from a statistical point of view:

http://statsbomb.com/2016/04/liverpool/

Conclusion

Liverpool are in as good a long-term situation as they’ve been in recent history. They dominate the ball and tilt the field in a way that only Man City and Arsenal can match. This years weaknesses have come down to shot quality which has been heavily influenced by shocking and unlucky proportions of top-tier chances allowed and taken. These will likely even out a good bit without anything changing but the underlying causes there are those that have the easiest fixes: a new goalie, a new centerback and a healthy Sturridge and Coutinho.

Without the ball, only Tottenham can claim to play nearly as well as the Klopp’s squad. If Daniel Sturridge can remain healthy, there is no more complete team heading into next season than Liverpool. Man City and Arsenal’s attacking firepower will make them slight favorites but Liverpool should expect to be the 3rd best team within touching distance of the top starting today and going into next season. Liverpool have the coach and the fundamentals and are right at the edge, the next step isn’t a hard one to make.


Thanks for that very interesting.

Offline JackWard33

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #704 on: April 1, 2016, 01:48:52 pm »
Really insightful article on where Liverpool are at the moment from a statistical point of view:

http://statsbomb.com/2016/04/liverpool/

Conclusion

Liverpool are in as good a long-term situation as they’ve been in recent history. They dominate the ball and tilt the field in a way that only Man City and Arsenal can match. This years weaknesses have come down to shot quality which has been heavily influenced by shocking and unlucky proportions of top-tier chances allowed and taken. These will likely even out a good bit without anything changing but the underlying causes there are those that have the easiest fixes: a new goalie, a new centerback and a healthy Sturridge and Coutinho.

Without the ball, only Tottenham can claim to play nearly as well as the Klopp’s squad. If Daniel Sturridge can remain healthy, there is no more complete team heading into next season than Liverpool. Man City and Arsenal’s attacking firepower will make them slight favorites but Liverpool should expect to be the 3rd best team within touching distance of the top starting today and going into next season. Liverpool have the coach and the fundamentals and are right at the edge, the next step isn’t a hard one to make.


This rams home why keeping our existing quality players (Sturridge, Henderson etc) is so important
There's a good amount of evidence that the team is better than it initially appears when you look at our league record.
People don't like to talk about luck but there are a number of factors (our opponents conversion % especially on early chances, the number of our errors that have led to goals) that can be expected to 'even out' next season having gone against us this

Doesn't mean there isn't a need for improvement but it should be about building on what we have

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #705 on: April 1, 2016, 02:17:03 pm »
the next step isn’t a hard one to make.[/i]

utter nonsense....it's actually the hardest
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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #706 on: April 1, 2016, 03:14:20 pm »
utter nonsense....it's actually the hardest

We, the sheepling masses of RAWK, appreciate your well reasoned and explained argument and concur fully.

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #707 on: April 1, 2016, 03:53:54 pm »
Bored at work so did this. Illustrates what an impact Firmino has had. Most goals and assists. Also shows how much Ibe has struggled.Was surprised to see that Can has only one assist and one goal despite playing a fair chunk of games as number 8. Allen has barely figured for us in the league.
« Last Edit: April 1, 2016, 03:57:45 pm by Too early for flapjacks? »

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #708 on: April 1, 2016, 03:59:00 pm »
Really insightful article on where Liverpool are at the moment from a statistical point of view:

http://statsbomb.com/2016/04/liverpool/

Conclusion

Liverpool are in as good a long-term situation as they’ve been in recent history. They dominate the ball and tilt the field in a way that only Man City and Arsenal can match. This years weaknesses have come down to shot quality which has been heavily influenced by shocking and unlucky proportions of top-tier chances allowed and taken. These will likely even out a good bit without anything changing but the underlying causes there are those that have the easiest fixes: a new goalie, a new centerback and a healthy Sturridge and Coutinho.

Without the ball, only Tottenham can claim to play nearly as well as the Klopp’s squad. If Daniel Sturridge can remain healthy, there is no more complete team heading into next season than Liverpool. Man City and Arsenal’s attacking firepower will make them slight favorites but Liverpool should expect to be the 3rd best team within touching distance of the top starting today and going into next season. Liverpool have the coach and the fundamentals and are right at the edge, the next step isn’t a hard one to make.

I just read that from Reddit,amazing analysis.

Bodes well for the future under Klopp.

This line is pretty damning.   

-Benteke almost certainly has no future as a big-minute player. He just can’t pass the ball and isn’t a special shot generator or space-creator. No player on Liverpool has a completion rate below 74% besides Benteke down at 66%.
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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #709 on: April 1, 2016, 04:27:14 pm »
That Benteke stat will be skewed somewhat by attempting flick ons etc?
So bloody what? If you watch football to be absolutely miserable then go watch cricket.

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #710 on: April 1, 2016, 04:33:29 pm »
I just read that from Reddit,amazing analysis.

Bodes well for the future under Klopp.
- Now no EPL team dominates territory like Liverpool. Chelsea, Man City, and Arsenal are still really good, but the Reds have done it more than anyone else. When you look through past seasons in different leagues, you essentially never find a team who is the best at dominating territory and fails to at least contend for the title.

- No team has held opponents to a lower danger zone completion percentage than the Reds: 33.3%.  So under Klopp Liverpool have managed to have a team that can press high effectively, keep teams from reaching the danger zone at an elite level and be the toughest to actually complete a pass in the danger zone against. Only Tottenham have anything like that

- no team plays more passes into dangerous areas than Liverpool under Klopp.

We are most certainly on a right path as Klopp`s principles of play are making us more and more difficult to play against with every week while at the same time our attacking play is developing nicely as well. On the whole we are growing nicely as a team and with a couple of correct tweaks I expect us to make significant progress next season.

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #711 on: April 1, 2016, 08:08:40 pm »
That Benteke stat will be skewed somewhat by attempting flick ons etc?

It would, if he ever actually won one. Little Adam Lallana is better at flick ons than the gigantic Belgian.
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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #712 on: April 8, 2016, 07:52:03 pm »
Sauce apologies

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #713 on: April 9, 2016, 08:11:40 pm »
Our 5 most used centerback pairings this season.

Blue = # of games 
Orange = # of goals allowed
Green = points per game average

Missing context though (strength of opponent, strength of our front six, midfield setup, etc.)


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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #714 on: April 10, 2016, 12:11:04 pm »
Our assist-scorer combinations for the season so far, if anyone's interested.

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #715 on: April 10, 2016, 01:49:36 pm »
Bored at work so did this. Illustrates what an impact Firmino has had. Most goals and assists. Also shows how much Ibe has struggled.Was surprised to see that Can has only one assist and one goal despite playing a fair chunk of games as number 8. Allen has barely figured for us in the league.

Just goes to show how silly it is just to highlight goals and assists. Benteke is our third most productive player according to that.

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #716 on: April 18, 2016, 09:44:24 pm »
Further to the assist combos chart in my previous post on this thread, here is the same thing but for all chances in the Premier League this season.

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #717 on: April 19, 2016, 05:05:48 am »
Further to the assist combos chart in my previous post on this thread, here is the same thing but for all chances in the Premier League this season.

12 chances created by Moreno for Coutinho but zero assists?

Does 'chance' mean a pass leading to a shot here?

Also, Coutinho continues to be the main creator for Sturridge, although Ibe has created shooting chances for Sturridge 5 times in probably about 3 games (at least twice against Bournemouth).

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #718 on: April 19, 2016, 12:15:27 pm »
12 chances created by Moreno for Coutinho but zero assists?

Does 'chance' mean a pass leading to a shot here?

Also, Coutinho continues to be the main creator for Sturridge, although Ibe has created shooting chances for Sturridge 5 times in probably about 3 games (at least twice against Bournemouth).

'pass leading to a shot' is exactly what it means here, and explains how Moreno can create lots for Coutinho with zero assists - he rolls a short simple pass to Coutinho who then dribbles a bit and then has a shot from miles out. A chance has been created, but with a low probability of a goal.

Ibe actually created 4 chances for Sturridge at Bournemouth - the most by one player to another in a Liverpool league game this season. Only been 19 combinations with more than 4 in total across the whole season so far.

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #719 on: April 19, 2016, 06:57:52 pm »
Alright, Daniel. You've got about 8 hours to do it.