Author Topic: Statistics and Analytics - insight into our performance  (Read 191508 times)

Offline ElstonGunn

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Statistics and Analytics - insight into our performance
« on: January 4, 2014, 12:02:14 am »
I think a lot people have noticed that there are more and more good statistical writers in football these days. Andrew Beasley (AKA BassTunedtoRed) and Dan Kennett are the most prominent Reds around, and do consistently good work. Then you have others, like MCofA, from cartilagefreecaptain, whose projected Premier League tables we've started to see quite a bit around RAWK; Ted Knutson, Ben Pugsley and Colin Trainor, who have made the new site Statsbomb.com a must read; James Grayson (with a blog named after himself), the best source of pure stats analysis on the web, and even bitters like Paul Riley (of differentgame) and Mike Goodman (of Grantland) who are doing great stuff. Our very own Prof also posted something very interesting about final third entries the other day. (And I'm sure I've missed a bunch of others.)

Instead of cluttering up threads like the Alternate Premier League Table (which is intentionally much simpler than a statistician would make it), I thought it would be good to have one place where we can keep track of developments in the stats world for those of us interested.

To start off, I did my own relatively simple statistical look at how we've played with and without the Lucas-Gerrard duo this season. It's been a little bit of time now since the partnership has been broken up, so I thought I'd take a look at what the stats indicate. I've long maintained that our issue in midfield was never about Gerrard himself (or Lucas), but the lack of mobility we had when both play. Obviously, that may have some effect on my analysis, but I think the facts below speak for themselves.

I focused particularly on 4 stats: total shots for and allowed, shots on target for and allowed, Total Shots Ratio (TSR), and Shots on Target Ratio (SoTR). The first two are straightforward, and are strong indicators of how well we're playing.

TSR and SoTR may be a little less familiar, but they're actually pretty straightforward too. TSR is just a measure of what percentage of the total shots taken are taken by a given team rather than its opponents. So, if Liverpool plays Everton and both sides have 10 shots each, Liverpool's TSR is .50, because it took 50% of the 20 total shots in the game.

There's some debate about how valuable the stat is--Villas Boas' teams always underperform their TSR's, for instance, for obvious reasons--but in general, having a good TSR is strong indicator of being a good team. (The r^2 between TSR and points gained in a season is .67, and it is arguably the single best stat for predicting future performance, which indicates it reveals to some extent "true ability.").

SoTR is the same thing as TSR, but using only shots on target instead of all shots.

When Lucas and Gerrard started together
Total shots against (on target) / shots for (on target): 179 (68) / 195 (76)
Shots against per game: 13.8
Shots for per game: 15
SoT against per game: 5.2
SoT for per game: 5.8
TSR: 52.1 (would be 10th in the league, virtually tied with MUFC)
SoTR: 52.7 (would be 11th, virtually tied with Swansea)

Lucas and Gerrard (only games where Suarez played)
Total: 109 (38) / 133 (50)
Shots against per game: 13.6
Shots for per game: 16.6
SoT against per game: 4.75
SoT for per game: 6.25
TSR: 54.9 (would be 9th in the league)
SoTR: 56.8 (would be 7th, just ahead of Spurs)

When only one of Gerrard or Lucas play:
Total: 82 (20) / 145 (53)
Shots against per game: 11.7
Shots for per game: 20.7
SoT against per game: 2.8
SoT for per game: 7.6
TSR: 63.8 (league best for the season is Man City with 63.7)
SoTR: 72.6 (!!) (league best for the season is Man City with 66.3)

In short, when Lucas and Gerrard have played together, our underlying stats are those of a team on the outside of a Europa League chase*, even if you only include the games when Suarez was available.

When we've only started with one of them, we've been playing like the best team in the league.

It's obviously important not to read too much into something like this. The sample is small, and there are other factors. In particular, our fitness may be improving as a result of Rodgers' periodization methods, and we've exclusively played 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 in the games since the Lucas-Gerrard partnership was broken up, whereas we played a variety of formations, including 3-5-2 and 4-4-2 before, when Sturridge was fit.

Nonetheless, I think we've all observed the improvement in our energy and mobility in midfield recently. I think it's a mistake, however, to think the change started with the Spurs game. For me, that added mobility was also evident against West Brom and West Ham, when Allen came in for Lucas and Gerrard played. My tentative conclusion, then, is that Henderson and Allen should be regular starters in midfield, while it should be a straight choice between Gerrard and Lucas for now.

*There are caveats worth noting here about the quality of the shots we've generally allowed and taken. Our opponents generally take shots from pretty poor locations, and we take shots from pretty good locations. There's a lot of debate in the stats world, however, about how repeatable "shot quality" is.

« Last Edit: April 26, 2022, 08:55:18 am by royhendo »

Offline ElstonGunn

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1 on: January 4, 2014, 12:06:13 am »
Bonus stat:
TSR without Suarez: 46.9 (would be 11th in the league)
TSR with Suarez: 59.2 (4th, 3 points ahead of Everton in 5th)

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #2 on: January 4, 2014, 12:12:39 am »
Great thread! Interesting question regarding midfield.  Fascinating stats (looking forward to more data).
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Offline robgomm

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #3 on: January 4, 2014, 12:24:14 am »
Yay, great idea! Shall follow with interest.

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #4 on: January 4, 2014, 12:34:38 am »
Thanks for the post and the thread. Is this for just this season? Do you have the stats for the same breakdowns for last year if so?

I also agree with you that the midfield becoming much better occurred before Spurs and you could see it. I am not sure, however, though that it has to be either/or with Gerrard+Lucas.
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Offline jooneyisdagod

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #5 on: January 4, 2014, 12:35:20 am »
Superb Elston. In terms of your thinking with respect to the midfield, I'm firmly with you in that while neither Gerrard or Lucas individually are a problem, their collective is a massive problem. And to me its no coincidence that our best footballing performances, Chelsea notwithstanding, have come with Allen in the side providing the kind of impetus that we so sorely lacked in the earlier part of the season.

I would be very interested to see the TSR and SOTR with Joe Allen in the side and I reckon if we consider the Everton game as a sort of a freebie given it was his first game in ages and the Chelsea game where he was injured evidently, we might see a massive jump in those measure. But really, I think this nails it. It doesn't cover everything as you cannot expect a single statistical measure to do that but it does say a fucking lot. Great post !
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Offline ElstonGunn

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #6 on: January 4, 2014, 12:37:35 am »
Thanks for the post and the thread. Is this for just this season? Do you have the stats for the same breakdowns for last year if so?.
It's just this year--I did it by hand, so I doubt I'll add everything from last season as well, but maybe if I get the time. It would be a lot less meaningful from last year IMO though, since there was a huge amount of transition at the beginning of the season (we were a mess in a lot of ways), and Coutinho and Sturridge joined very close to the time Lucas came, and those two quite obviously transformed our attacking ability. This season the scale of the changes--once Suarez came back--has been a lot less extreme.
« Last Edit: January 4, 2014, 12:40:18 am by ElstonGunn »

Offline ElstonGunn

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #7 on: January 4, 2014, 12:39:40 am »
Superb Elston. In terms of your thinking with respect to the midfield, I'm firmly with you in that while neither Gerrard or Lucas individually are a problem, their collective is a massive problem. And to me its no coincidence that our best footballing performances, Chelsea notwithstanding, have come with Allen in the side providing the kind of impetus that we so sorely lacked in the earlier part of the season.

I would be very interested to see the TSR and SOTR with Joe Allen in the side and I reckon if we consider the Everton game as a sort of a freebie given it was his first game in ages and the Chelsea game where he was injured evidently, we might see a massive jump in those measure. But really, I think this nails it. It doesn't cover everything as you cannot expect a single statistical measure to do that but it does say a fucking lot. Great post !
Cheers. Yeah, the numbers would be very similar if you think about it as "games where Joe Allen played" rather than "games where only one of Lucas and Gerrard played." The Everton and Hull (home) games are the only ones that switch.

Offline ProvidenceKOP

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #8 on: January 4, 2014, 12:52:22 am »
It's just this year--I did it by hand, so I doubt I'll add everything from last season as well, but maybe if I get the time. It would be a lot less meaningful from last year IMO though, since there was a huge amount of transition at the beginning of the season (we were a mess in a lot of ways), and Coutinho and Sturridge joined very close to the time Lucas came, and those two quite obviously transformed our attacking ability. This season the scale of the changes--once Suarez came back--has been a lot less extreme.

Jesus, really? That must have taken ages.

Thanks for the work, this is fascinating.
Where did you get the data from? Just match summaries?

Offline ElstonGunn

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #9 on: January 4, 2014, 12:58:21 am »
Jesus, really? That must have taken ages.

Thanks for the work, this is fascinating.
Where did you get the data from? Just match summaries?
Heh, yeah, I've followed stats in baseball and football long enough to understand them, but I never learned how to do data mining or anything like that. It didn't take that long, though. I mean, I did use a calculator!

And yeah, just from the Whoscored match summaries.

Offline ProvidenceKOP

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #10 on: January 4, 2014, 01:03:27 am »
You should use excel---actually we should build an excel database for lfc--for each game, lineup and all the relevant stats.

In an ideal world, what would you have?
Shots (on target)
SoT
TSR

pass completion %?
WARP?

Offline ProvidenceKOP

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #11 on: January 4, 2014, 01:04:04 am »
The joke there was WHIP.

I missed it.

Offline masher

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #12 on: January 4, 2014, 01:10:15 am »
Great idea for a thread. I have been thinking of doing some analysis myself but I am not sure where to get the data from. Is there a place where I can extract data for all premier league matches into excel? Can't be bothered to copy all of it every week. Is there a place where you can extract the data from and obviously refresh it with each gameweek. Wouldn't mind paying for it.

Offline ElstonGunn

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #13 on: January 4, 2014, 01:10:29 am »
You should use excel---actually we should build an excel database for lfc--for each game, lineup and all the relevant stats.

In an ideal world, what would you have?
Shots (on target)
SoT
TSR

pass completion %?
WARP?
That is a fantastic idea.
As a start, shots, shots on target, passes completed, total passes, clear cut chances, crosses attempted and completed, key passes, tackles, and interceptions, I think.

Ideally you'd break that stuff down to different areas of the pitch--e.g. final third tackles, shots from central inside the box. People get access to that stuff--presumably from an OPTA subscription?--but I'm not sure how. I certainly don't think any of us are going to go on StatsZone and count out the number of final third tackles we made every game.

The joke there was WHIP.

I missed it.
Definitely need VORP!

Offline ElstonGunn

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #14 on: January 4, 2014, 01:12:59 am »
Great idea for a thread. I have been thinking of doing some analysis myself but I am not sure where to get the data from. Is there a place where I can extract data for all premier league matches into excel? Can't be bothered to copy all of it every week. Is there a place where you can extract the data from and obviously refresh it with each gameweek. Wouldn't mind paying for it.
I'm not sure, though I think OPTA might do it for a fee. If not you could ask Andrew Beasley or Dan Kennett (I think they both post here occasionally?) where they get their data.

Offline ProvidenceKOP

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #15 on: January 4, 2014, 01:28:56 am »
we need a data-entry intern.

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #16 on: January 4, 2014, 01:30:42 am »
Superb Elston. In terms of your thinking with respect to the midfield, I'm firmly with you in that while neither Gerrard or Lucas individually are a problem, their collective is a massive problem. And to me its no coincidence that our best footballing performances, Chelsea notwithstanding, have come with Allen in the side providing the kind of impetus that we so sorely lacked in the earlier part of the season.

I would be very interested to see the TSR and SOTR with Joe Allen in the side and I reckon if we consider the Everton game as a sort of a freebie given it was his first game in ages and the Chelsea game where he was injured evidently, we might see a massive jump in those measure. But really, I think this nails it. It doesn't cover everything as you cannot expect a single statistical measure to do that but it does say a fucking lot. Great post !

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Offline houkura

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #17 on: January 4, 2014, 01:37:17 am »
Very interesting. One question...why did you pick these particular statistics? I'm no stat guy but it seems there would be more relevant statistics to inform oneself regarding the midfield performance of a football team. Especially shots on target. I know MCofA has a specific subset of shots from different areas-sort of a high/low percentage shots statistic but otherwise I would think shots on target is more down to the performance of the striker(s). Honestly interested to hear the methodology-not a wind up.
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Offline ElstonGunn

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #18 on: January 4, 2014, 01:48:54 am »
Very interesting. One question...why did you pick these particular statistics? I'm no stat guy but it seems there would be more relevant statistics to inform oneself regarding the midfield performance of a football team. Especially shots on target. I know MCofA has a specific subset of shots from different areas-sort of a high/low percentage shots statistic but otherwise I would think shots on target is more down to the performance of the striker(s). Honestly interested to hear the methodology-not a wind up.
No it's a good question, that I'm not sure I can give an adequate answer to. Here's the way I understand it, and what my thinking was. The bottom line is that shots numbers are the best (simple) indicator of overall performance. How many shots you get off is a function not just how well your forwards are playing, but the quality of the service they get as well, and how much of the ball the team has. Shots on target are being used here basically as a proxy for how good the shots are, especially in terms of where the shot is taken from and how much pressure is on the shooter. MCofA's are much more granular (and better), but it's basically the same idea. Obviously the shooting ability of the striker will matter as well, but it's far from the only thing that affects it.

Stats that more obviously have to do with midfield performance, like possession and tackle stats etc., can be very misleading IMO, as they often have as much to do with strategy as the quality of the performance. Possession is a decent indicator of performance, but it's pretty weak when compared to shots. In my opinion, and I think this is backed up by the analytics, the way to tell how well you played is to look at how many shots you and your opponents had, and of what quality they were. I think it's almost impossible to isolate midfield performance from other parts of the pitch, but we can see with what groups of players we've performed the best overall.

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #19 on: January 4, 2014, 02:00:45 am »
That is a fantastic idea.
As a start, shots, shots on target, passes completed, total passes, clear cut chances, crosses attempted and completed, key passes, tackles, and interceptions, I think.

Ideally you'd break that stuff down to different areas of the pitch--e.g. final third tackles, shots from central inside the box. People get access to that stuff--presumably from an OPTA subscription?--but I'm not sure how. I certainly don't think any of us are going to go on StatsZone and count out the number of final third tackles we made every game.
Definitely need VORP!

For the data to be really useful, you'd probably need to indicate the time that each event in the match occurred, so it can be correlated to which players were on the pitch, the game state, and stuff like that.

People have been doing detailed analysis on locations of tackles, interceptions, and shots too, so a good database would need to take location of these things and the player involved.

One interesting stat I haven't seen yet is the location that players get tackled. We've seen stats about where tackles take place, and there are stats on how often players get tackled, but we don't know which players have a tendency to lose the ball in their own box, for example.
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Offline ProvidenceKOP

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #20 on: January 4, 2014, 02:30:04 am »
NBA teams are using an overhead camera system (SportVU) that analyzes spacing, shot percentage, and the difficulty of shots (is there someone in your face or not)
I'm sure Premier League teams have access to this stuff, but it's going to be really cool once we can see the results of those analytics.
Even just to get a better idea about player spacing and the impact of tactical decisions.

I mean, its seems to me that Coutinho has had less space to operate this year.
Is that true? Is it because he's on the left?
Or, does he have the space and the problem is that he wants to make the national team so badly he insists on blazing shots over the bar from 25 meters.

Offline ElstonGunn

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #21 on: January 6, 2014, 08:59:44 pm »
A roundup of the best stats articles I've seen on the web recently, with a particular focus on what it means for LFC. If people like this, i can try to do something similar most weeks.

First, Ted Knutson released an update of his Premier League projection model. Highlights:
  • Liverpool, Everton and Arsenal are all roughly equal in the chasing pack behind. He added the subjective comment that he expected Everton to drop off because of "injuries, etc.," but it sounds like they're pretty even with us in the actual model.
  • Chelsea have nearly caught up with City for first, especially when you take strength of schedule into account.
  • He also pointed out LFCs much easier schedule in the second half means that we have a genuine shot at the title if we buy well in January. I've questioned before whether our second half--where almost all the best teams play at Anfield, but we have to play almost all the worst teams away--was actually easier, since we have so few home bankers. He tweeted about the idea a little more earlier today, and I'm starting to come around. Basically the idea is that there's a much bigger win probability shift between home and away against a good team than a bad one (caveat: only applies if you're a good team like us):

    Ted Knutson ‏@mixedknuts 9h
    City are probably 60% to win that before it's played. Take the same match and flip it to Anfield.  Suddenly City are about 35% or so to win

    Ted Knutson ‏@mixedknuts 9h
    That type of probability swing changes your expected points for the 2nd half of the season significantly. (One more ex coming)

    Ted Knutson ‏@mixedknuts 9h
    Now take Palace vs City. City probably 75% to win that one away, but change to 83% if the match is at home. MUCH smaller flux in probability
  • The relegation scrap is crazy unpredictable--Sunderland are likely going down, but other than that, who knows?
  • He also talked about us playing better without Gerrard in an impressionistic way.

Second, here's a couple from James Grayson.
First, the most recent data dump.
  • We are now 4th in TSR, having moved ahead of Arsenal, trailing City, Chelsea and Spurs (whose TSR has always been fantastic)
  • Our PDO has regressed a bit. (Not necessarily that bad a thing.)
  • Our strength of schedule rating is pretty low, but the differences seem to be quite marginal (we're still 4th in qualcomp TSR)
And here's a great little post on Fulham's ressurection under Meulensteen, which can be summed up in this chart:



Here are several shot charts Colin Trainor did for Statsbomb this week:

Liverpool. Takeaways:
  • We have the second most total shots, and most shots on target.
  • We have given up too many shots for a team with our ambitions.
  • The shots we take are of below average quality for a title contender
  • We restrict opponents to very low quality shots (only Arsenal are better at preventing shots from "Prime" positions).
  • Suarez can't possibly keep up this goalscoring rate.

  • Coutinho's shooting has been very poor.

Arsenal
  • Great at taking good shots and resricting good shots, but their shot volume isn't high enough for title contenders
  • Giroud is a poor finisher

City
  • City are amazing. Though they don't restrict opponent shot quality that well.

I'll link to a bunch of MCofA stuff, as he's done a lot this week (though mostly not relevant to LFC):

I'm sure I missed several good ones, but there you go!

Offline jameshay

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #22 on: January 6, 2014, 09:14:08 pm »
great stuff.

appreciate the effort.
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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #23 on: January 6, 2014, 09:46:34 pm »
The Premier League Crystal Ball article was very good, only heard of statsbomb a few weeks ago but it's easily becoming one of my favourite sites, great stuff.

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #24 on: January 6, 2014, 10:15:01 pm »
Very Intersting
Cheers


He also talked about us playing better without Gerrard in an impressionistic way. ?

We look better but aren't ?

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #25 on: January 6, 2014, 10:17:58 pm »
Very Intersting
Cheers


He also talked about us playing better without Gerrard in an impressionistic way. ?

We look better but aren't ?
Ha, no I meant it wasn't based on stats.

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #26 on: January 6, 2014, 10:22:11 pm »
Ha, no I meant it wasn't based on stats.
;)

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #27 on: January 6, 2014, 10:25:14 pm »
Very Intersting
Cheers


He also talked about us playing better without Gerrard in an impressionistic way. ?

We look better but aren't ?

Steven Gerrard.
But STATS! 3 goals, 6 assists from midfield in 15 matches. THE CAPTAIN!!1!1!!
Sorry, Liverpool play better overall without him.
Look, Stevie G is still producing well, especially for a 33 year-old. But… Liverpool could get more out of that position. The ball moves better/faster and LFC seem more capable both offensively and defensively without the Gerrard/Lucas axis in place.
Stick Cabaye/Badelj/Gonalons in that Gerrard role and Liverpool are title contenders.
Oh you English are SO superior aren't you? Well, would you like to know where you'd be without US the good old U.S. of A. to protect you? I'll tell you. The smallest fucking province in the Russian Empire, that's where! If it wasn't for us, you'd all be speaking German, singing, "Deutschland, Deutschland Uber Alles!"

Offline rocco

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #28 on: January 6, 2014, 10:33:39 pm »
Steven Gerrard.
But STATS! 3 goals, 6 assists from midfield in 15 matches. THE CAPTAIN!!1!1!!
Sorry, Liverpool play better overall without him.
Look, Stevie G is still producing well, especially for a 33 year-old. But… Liverpool could get more out of that position. The ball moves better/faster and LFC seem more capable both offensively and defensively without the Gerrard/Lucas axis in place.
Stick Cabaye/Badelj/Gonalons in that Gerrard role and Liverpool are title contenders.
Just as I thought ;)

Offline swordfishtrombone

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #29 on: January 6, 2014, 10:42:02 pm »
Has Dan Kennett stopped updating that 'dashboard' that he used last season?

Offline ElstonGunn

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #30 on: January 6, 2014, 10:43:39 pm »
Has Dan Kennett stopped updating that 'dashboard' that he used last season?
I don't know. I never really knew how to interpret it anyway, if I'm honest.

Offline jdpapa3

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #31 on: January 7, 2014, 12:39:15 am »
I think this is a great idea for a thread as I felt weird bringing up any of the new MCofA stuff in the APLT thread as they are based on completely different processes of thought.

Sorry if I missed this in the thread, but I thought this was an interesting article on Prozone and some stats based performance analysis. http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2014/01/features/the-winning-formula

Interesting excerpt:
Quote
Every week during the 2011-2012 season, Manchester's City captain, Vincent Kompany, sat down with the other defenders and a performance analyst, and examined their performance. "They would look at videos and statistics and ask questions," Wilson says. "Was the pressure effective? How many forced errors did they commit? What would happen in the ten seconds after losing the ball? On the basis of that analysis they would design their own defensive tactics for the game. You can have a fantastic analytics team but you can never win a game with data if you're not influencing the behaviour of the players." At the end of the season, Manchester City had conceded the fewest number of goals in the Premier League. "We beat a lot of records that season," Wilson says. "Most of the credit is due to the talent on the pitch. But I believe that about 30 percent of that success is down to how well we prepared and maximised that talent."

My best friend's doing this stuff for an MLB team and I'm trying to get him into football. They've got these incredible databases for college baseball teams that weight for respective conferences and it's just unreal. I think there are still some major clubs that are perennially top-mid table that are not taking this as seriously as they could be. 

Something that drives me a bit mad about OPTA and the like are that they don't consider the damn woodwork as a SOT. Can be enough to skew the data if it's a mad season like Dalglish's last at the helm.

Offline Geormajesty

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #32 on: January 7, 2014, 12:47:01 am »
Has Dan Kennett stopped updating that 'dashboard' that he used last season?
There's a new one for this season.

http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/LFC_2013_14_Perf_Dashboard/LFC#1

Offline robgomm

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #33 on: January 7, 2014, 01:03:53 am »
Hopefully can contribute to the debate more when I have more time but for now KEEP IT UP, young Elston, as this is a great thread.

Offline robgomm

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #34 on: January 7, 2014, 01:31:17 am »
I think there are still some major clubs that are perennially top-mid table that are not taking this as seriously as they could be.

Definitely. I wonder if there's much statistical data available for lower division sides. Must be frustrating for any forward thinking coach to work in the dark to some extent.

Offline ericthered10

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #35 on: January 7, 2014, 04:14:03 pm »
Definitely. I wonder if there's much statistical data available for lower division sides. Must be frustrating for any forward thinking coach to work in the dark to some extent.
Surely they have a way to inexpensively record games and get an intern/good Samaritan fan to at least jot down some of the more common stats? This thread is and will be awesome, thanks for Elston for the time and effort as well as all the other article aggregators and contributors.

Offline ElstonGunn

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #36 on: January 7, 2014, 06:30:43 pm »
Week 20 Projections.
Quote from: MCofA
I have four clubs above 80% for top four, and then a chasm before we get Everton at a little over 20%, and the clubs below Everton, summed together, have about an equal chance of qualifying for the Champions League as Everton. That is certainly a finding. I checked the bookies' lines here, and they seem to roughly agree with me. They have Chelsea, City and Arsenal as basically nailed on for top four, and Liverpool a big step down, Manchester United close behind Liverpool, and Everton and Spurs another step back. The big disagreement between my stats and the bookies' is that I have Liverpool as way better than even odds to finish top four and United as worse than even odds.

Offline robgomm

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #37 on: January 7, 2014, 06:38:32 pm »
Surely they have a way to inexpensively record games and get an intern/good Samaritan fan to at least jot down some of the more common stats?

I'd do that for a club, it'd be ace!

Offline Fromola

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #38 on: January 7, 2014, 06:45:20 pm »
Lucas and Gerrard as a pairing lack so many of the basic qualities you want from a midfield at this level.

Pace - no
Energy - no
Stamina - no
Power - no
Positioning - no
Off the ball - no
ability to function against pressing, energetic sides - no (Southampton and Arsenal performances are the norm when we come against those).

Lucas pre-injury and Gerrard 5 years ago, maybe.
Could have done with Grujic and even Chirivella to tide us over this season

Offline Lenin.

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Re: The Lucas-Gerrard Partnership and Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #39 on: January 7, 2014, 06:50:06 pm »
Lucas and Gerrard as a pairing lack so many of the basic qualities you want from a midfield at this level.

Pace - no
Energy - no
Stamina - no
Power - no
Positioning - no
Off the ball - no
ability to function against pressing, energetic sides - no (Southampton and Arsenal performances are the norm when we come against those).

Lucas pre-injury and Gerrard 5 years ago, maybe.
I think you would find a Gerrard Allen/Gerrard Henderson pairing even worse.
Oh you English are SO superior aren't you? Well, would you like to know where you'd be without US the good old U.S. of A. to protect you? I'll tell you. The smallest fucking province in the Russian Empire, that's where! If it wasn't for us, you'd all be speaking German, singing, "Deutschland, Deutschland Uber Alles!"