Topic: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy

[Redeo]

Just watched Brasil v. Bosnia game. That Pjanic kid is simply great, and young too. Come on NESV, splash the cash!!!

[sinnermichael]

Liverpool's director of football Damien Comolli insists he is not expecting the club to spend massively this summer.

Following the Reds' Carling Cup success at the weekend, Comolli told Sky Sports that a number of 'big players' were already in the club's sights.

However, Comolli admits there will not be a repeat of last summer when Kenny Dalglish brought in seven players, taking his spending to over £100million since taking charge.

"It is early days. We will probably make some adjustments in the summer but nothing that we've done before," said the Frenchman.


"We signed nine players since Kenny came back so there will be a few adjustments but nothing massive.

"We have done the hard work and now it is a question of making some adjustments in certain positions.

"Kenny has said it several times that we have a very competitive squad and all positions are covered by two or three players, quality players, and we have a lot of young players coming through as well."

After lifting the Carling Cup last weekend, the club's first trophy for six years, matters now turn to the Premier League.

Comolli believes Saturday's visit of Arsenal is a match the Reds have to win to boost their hopes of a top-four finish.

The Gunners' stunning 5-2 win over Tottenham last weekend, having been 2-0 down, means Arsene Wenger's side are currently in pole position for the final UEFA Champions League qualification spot.

However, Chelsea are only below them on goal difference and Liverpool need to claw back a seven-point gap - although they do have a match in hand, against Everton.

"We have a massive game against Arsenal at the weekend," said Comolli.

"The next priority is to win the next game. When you see the results at the weekend with Arsenal beating Spurs we definitely need to win on Saturday."

Comolli believes victory in the Carling Cup on Sunday, securing the club's first trophy for six years, can only have a positive impact on the club and the players.

"It is a fantastic statement and also we are back in Europe early in the season," he added.

"We know it will bring us positive dynamic for the rest of the season.

"It is a fantastic way to end February with a trophy already but we know we have a lot to play for until May."

http://www1.skysports.com/football/news/11669/7558595/Reds-won-t-spend-big

[CraigDS]

Crappy article but is what I'd expect from SSN.

He doesn't mention anything about money, he mentions it won't be massive as in 7 players coming in like last summer.

[Gene]

Crappy article but is what I'd expect from SSN.

He doesn't mention anything about money, he mentions it won't be massive as in 7 players coming in like last summer.

I agree in that we don't need 7 players coming in, but we do need to spend a good bit of cash on a couple of players.

[JamesLS7]

I think that article is good to be honest in terms of what DC is saying.

There wont be massive squad overhaul, just small adjustments. So basically, when you think about him saying bringing in big names, could mean there will only be two or three signings in the summer, but they will be big name signing for the first team, rather than players for the squad.


This summer is a big summer for the club, we must secure CL football next season at latest. If we were to miss it this season, that would be 3 years in a row. 4 would be unthinkable, so this summer I could see us making moves for the likes of Hazard, M'Villa, Cavani and that sort of player. Wether we get them is another matter entirely.

[socrates the sophist]

I agree in that we don't need 7 players coming in, but we do need to spend a good bit of cash on a couple of players.

I don't know if we even need to spend that much either. We just need the right players, especially going out. If I was manager, I'd send Doni, Aurelio, Spearing and Adam. May be even Kuyt and Carra.

Then in coming I'd get a lb and either a winger (ending bellamy a cover for strikers) or a striker (with Bellamy playing as a winger) if we sell Kuyt. Personally I'd go for a winger.

So we are talking about 4-6 players out with 1-2 coming in. They don't have to cost much either, for example getting Jordi Alba won't cost more than 10-12 at most.

[CraigDS]

I don't know if we even need to spend that much either. We just need the right players, especially going out. If I was manager, I'd send Doni, Aurelio, Spearing and Adam. May be even Kuyt and Carra.

Then in coming I'd get a lb and either a winger (ending bellamy a cover for strikers) or a striker (with Bellamy playing as a winger) if we sell Kuyt. Personally I'd go for a winger.

So we are talking about 4-6 players out with 1-2 coming in. They don't have to cost much either, for example getting Jordi Alba won't cost more than 10-12 at most.

Lets hope this doesn't happen!

[JamesLS7]

I think around 80M has to be spent this summer. That should be spent bringing in top quality that without a shadw of doubt improves the 1st team. Players who we can say, yes thats a top quality player. Players we can name alongside Reina, Agger, Lucas, Gerrard and Suarez.


We have a strong core in the first team, we just need to add 2 or 3  players. IMO, a top quality striker, a top quality CM to play next to Lucas so Gerrard can be pushed forward, and a top quality winger/wide forward.

When you look at who could be sold in the summer, we should be able to rise 20M at least from player sales IMO, so with that, money generated by the club itself, and hopefully an injection from FSG, there should be a large warchest come the summer.

[DanA]

80m? that's a hell of a lot.

I'd be happy if we spent half that.

[JamesLS7]

80m? that's a hell of a lot.

I'd be happy if we spent half that.

Liverpool football club generate alot of money. We now no longer have to spend our profits on interest payments so IMO it should be reinvested. I think that say 40M of the club money could be spent, then 20M from possible player sales, and I hope that FSG invest some of their own money as up till this point, all money that has been spent I think has been the clubs own money.

[Rox]

I hope that FSG invest some of their own money as up till this point, all money that has been spent I think has been the clubs own money.

Apart from the small matter of actually shelling out a few hundred million on the club itself.

[JamesLS7]

Apart from the small matter of actually shelling out a few hundred million on the club itself.

Sorry lad, but if you buy a football club, IMO you cant just start saying :

"Ok we bought the club, we arent going to invest anymore money."


Buying the club should be the first investment, not the last.

[DanA]

Liverpool football club generate alot of money. We now no longer have to spend our profits on interest payments so IMO it should be reinvested. I think that say 40M of the club money could be spent, then 20M from possible player sales, and I hope that FSG invest some of their own money as up till this point, all money that has been spent I think has been the clubs own money.

I don't think we need that much personally. I guess we could blow 80m on Cavani, Hazard & M'Vila or something like that but for me it's unrealistic.

[DanA]

Sorry lad, but if you buy a football club, IMO you cant just start saying :

"Ok we bought the club, we arent going to invest anymore money."


Buying the club should be the first investment, not the last.

They paid down our debt didn't they? That's a hell of a start a new stadium would be the 2nd thing I'd love. Not really looking for money blown on players

[Dmode101]

80m? that's a hell of a lot.

I'd be happy if we spent half that.

you dont seem like a genuine fan if spending 40m makes us happy. i mean if you say contented i would understand. but happy? unless you work for the owners, that's not a natural reaction. we clearly have not even one classy winger let alone two. we don't even have a great DM/CM to play along side lucas. you think 40m will  get us all that?   

[paddysour]

I hope that FSG invest some of their own money as up till this point, all money that has been spent I think has been the clubs own money.

They aren't allowed to. FFP stops that. And they've said themselves they wouldn't be anways, they want us to be self sufficient.

[JamesLS7]

They paid down our debt didn't they? That's a hell of a start a new stadium would be the 2nd thing I'd love. Not really looking for money blown on players

Sorry mate, but I just expect owners of the club to invest in the squad. Thats what we are all concerned about, and thats what we all enjoy watching. Its great having a new stadium if that happens, but I would rather stay at Anfield and win the league, than move to a new stadum and be 6th or 7th.

Everything else is secondary to the players at the football club. A successful team on the pitch will lead to successful off of it.


I am not asking the owners to "blow" loads of money like City or Chelsea, I am suggesting a steady, moderate invest in the playing staff. Say 10M of their own money a season, combined with the money the club generates on its own.

That way we can improve, and challenge for titles, which is how the club will people able to generate more money of its own, and in the long run, the owners will not have to spend their money as the club will generate more.


You have to speculate to accumulate, as the saying goes.

[Rox]

Sorry lad, but if you buy a football club, IMO you cant just start saying :

"Ok we bought the club, we arent going to invest anymore money."


Buying the club should be the first investment, not the last.

"Lad"?

I was answering a post claiming they hadn't invested any money.  Buying the club and wiping the debt whichever way you look at it is 'investment'.

I didn't say they shouldn't be investing more, merely challenging the idea they hadn't invested.

Still I should know better than to expect people to think on this board these days.

[JamesLS7]

They aren't allowed to. FFP stops that. And they've said themselves they wouldn't be anways, they want us to be self sufficient.

FFP does not stop that. It stops City spending 100M a season of their owners money. Which is not something I am even hinting at.

[CraigDS]

They aren't allowed to. FFP stops that.

Exactly - some people need to get a grasp on reality.

[CraigDS]

FFP does not stop that. It stops City spending 100M a season of their owners money. Which is not something I am even hinting at.

So where is £80m coming from?

[Rox]

So where is £80m coming from?

Jay Spearing's Tuck Shop money...

[JamesLS7]

"Lad"?

I was answering a post claiming they hadn't invested any money.  Buying the club and wiping the debt whichever way you look at it is 'investment'.

I didn't say they shouldn't be investing more, merely challenging the idea they hadn't invested.

Still I should know better than to expect people to think on this board these days.

Cut the condescending arrogance mate. It doesn't suit you.

When I said invested, I obviously was not referring to them buying the club. I was talking about in the transfer market, which is what the topic has been generally based around mate.

[Quintet]

you dont seem like a genuine fan if spending 40m makes us happy. i mean if you say contented i would understand. but happy? unless you work for the owners, that's not a natural reaction. we clearly have not even one classy winger let alone two. we don't even have a great DM/CM to play along side lucas. you think 40m will  get us all that?

Yes Granit Xhaka. Going for around £5-7m apparently. I have seen him quite a bit recently and I already think hes above Adam in ability. I honestly think £40m net will get us up there IF SPENT WISELY. There are some real realistic bargains out there...for instance Isla, Gaston Ramirez, Granit Xhaka.

However a top class striker will set us back, but again there's players like abel Hernandez who are in the last year of their contract. Fact is spending £80m would be silly in our postion. I just hope we've learnt from last summer. IMHO we are the worst side along with chelsea in Europe at the moment in the transfer market. But i think that is mainly due to the home grown rule, which has been our downfall starting with the alonso-barry saga. The moneyball approach works but it doesn't work with overrated average british players.

[JamesLS7]

So where is £80m coming from?

If you read my post you will see.

I suggested it as a ballpark figure, that could be made up from Player sales, money generated by the club itself, and small investment from the owners.

[paddysour]

FFP does not stop that. It stops City spending 100M a season of their owners money. Which is not something I am even hinting at.

Where do you want us to pull £80m out of then? We won't make that kind of profit over the next 5 years in all likelyhood, never mind splashing it in one summer.

[Rox]

Cut the condescending arrogance mate. It doesn't suit you.

You started it "pal".

I was replying to someone's comment and you barged in - hardly my fault you're hard of understanding, is it?

[Carlito Roberto]

I think around 80M has to be spent this summer. That should be spent bringing in top quality that without a shadw of doubt improves the 1st team. Players who we can say, yes thats a top quality player. Players we can name alongside Reina, Agger, Lucas, Gerrard and Suarez.


We have a strong core in the first team, we just need to add 2 or 3  players. IMO, a top quality striker, a top quality CM to play next to Lucas so Gerrard can be pushed forward, and a top quality winger/wide forward.

When you look at who could be sold in the summer, we should be able to rise 20M at least from player sales IMO, so with that, money generated by the club itself, and hopefully an injection from FSG, there should be a large warchest come the summer.

£80m 

Can't see us spending anywhere near that. To get back to where we need to be that figure is about right, but with Financial Fair play coming in I just can't see it. The problem is we've already spent this £80m warchest you allude to and bar Suarez, the big money signings haven't done enough. It's a frightening thought we blew a combined £80m on Carroll, Henderson, Adam and Downing. We can't seem to get the balance right. Under Rafa it was the sub £10m players that we had the most trouble with, but whenever Rafa bought big (Aquilani aside) they were an unqualified success; Alonso, Torres, Mascherano, Johnson and Kuyt.

Kenny/Commoli have absolutely nailed the 'value' signings (Adam aside) with Bellamy, Coates and Enrique being brilliant signings. If only the big money ones were of the level of Rafa's we'd be absolutely sorted.

[CraigDS]

If you read my post you will see.

I suggested it as a ballpark figure, that could be made up from Player sales, money generated by the club itself, and small investment from the owners.

Change that to large investment from the owners and you'd be right. Then you'd also see it falls on the wrong side of the FFP rules.

[Garcepticon]

80m? that's a hell of a lot.

I'd be happy if we spent half that.

I agree with this post, don't get your hopes up for that sort of spending.

[myliverbird]

I like Cardozo who plays for Benfica. Granted he's 27 or 28 now but the man is a goal machine and has been for some time. Someone like him and maybe add someone like Ramirez, Xhaka or Isla.

[JamesLS7]

Where do you want us to pull £80m out of then? We won't make that kind of profit over the next 5 years in all likelyhood, never mind splashing it in one summer.

How about you read my post rather than jumping down my throat and acting like a smart arse mate.

For about the third time:

Player sales. Say 20M
Money generated by the club. Say 40M
Investment from the owners. Say 20M.

80M does not have to be an exact number, it could be anywhere from 60M, which as a top 6 club and one of only 5 self sufficient clubs in the country, I do not see as a major risk spending when a good proportion will be recieved back from sales of players.

[JamesLS7]

Change that to large investment from the owners and you'd be right. Then you'd also see it falls on the wrong side of the FFP rules.

Where a club can run at a loss of up top 40M. I do not see us doing that with say 50M net spend for one season.

[paddysour]

How about you read my post rather than jumping down my throat and acting like a smart arse mate.

For about the third time:

Player sales. Say 20M
Money generated by the club. Say 40M
Investment from the owners. Say 20M.

80M does not have to be an exact number, it could be anywhere from 60M, which as a top 6 club and one of only 5 self sufficient clubs in the country, I do not see as a major risk spending when a good proportion will be recieved back from sales of players.

I've read them, and now I'm correcting them. Nothing arsey about it.

We will not generate £40m. And the owners are not allowed to put £20m in for us to spend on transfers.

[JamesLS7]

You started it "pal".

I was replying to someone's comment and you barged in - hardly my fault you're hard of understanding, is it?

Oh, so its against forum rules is it to respond to a post if it isnt directly specifically at you ?

Maybe you need to take the stick out your arse mate if you find terms like pal and lad offensive.

I cant be arsed arguing over such a pointless topic, if you take offensive at someone calling you lad, then thats your problem.

[JamesLS7]

I've read them, and now I'm correcting them. Nothing arsey about it.

We will not generate £40m. And the owners are not allowed to put £20m in for us to spend on transfers.

Well they are allowed to invest mate. My understanding is that you can run up to a 40M loss, I just don't see how a 20M investment in one season breaks the FFP rules. If thats the case then Chelsea will never be able to buy a player again.

[Quintet]

How about you read my post rather than jumping down my throat and acting like a smart arse mate.

For about the third time:

Player sales. Say 20M
Money generated by the club. Say 40M
Investment from the owners. Say 20M.

80M does not have to be an exact number, it could be anywhere from 60M, which as a top 6 club and one of only 5 self sufficient clubs in the country, I do not see as a major risk spending when a good proportion will be recieved back from sales of players.

No £35-£40m generated from club, well made available for player purchases (£45m at a push considering europe, warrior and meireles money)

£10m max from player sales, How are you going to get £20m with only the likes on aquilani, cole, kuyt and maxi going, with two of those leaving on a free with the other going for £6m to milan and around £5m for kuyt. But then its not football manager we won't even get that with agent payments and cole demading money for moving to lille who are giving him 60k less a week. Its not how much you spend its who you buy thats important. As I've stated there are some real bargains out there.

[Zlen]

Sure, there won't be a overhaul like the one from the last summer, however I hope he's only speaking about the number of players moving, not about the amount of money spent because we're seriously short of attacking class and quality. This summer will make or break him and this current 'Project Liverpool' and I honestly don't see any serious progress happening without signing of no less then three high/top quality players (CAM/CM, RW, CF).

[CraigDS]

How about you read my post rather than jumping down my throat and acting like a smart arse mate.

For about the third time:

Player sales. Say 20M
Money generated by the club. Say 40M
Investment from the owners. Say 20M.

80M does not have to be an exact number, it could be anywhere from 60M, which as a top 6 club and one of only 5 self sufficient clubs in the country, I do not see as a major risk spending when a good proportion will be recieved back from sales of players.

Since when has the club generated £40m (not including player sales) they can pump in to player purchases? Unless we get CL (which the money from wouldnt be seen until the summer after) we won't get near that. Warrior and Standard Chartered only scratch the surface of covering what we lose not being in the CL.

[Suareznumber7]

Dont worry. Supporters think they are smart and have to pay 50 quid a ticket. Premier Leaque shareholders think they are smart owning the business and lose 500m quid a year. Everyone thinks Wayne Rooney is stupid but he earns 200k a week. I know who has the business model here.