I know that people are nervous about the game because it always feels like some games/runs are too good to be true, almost - but really, barring a Villa-like aberration, we should handle these quite comfortably.
Southampton -Attack-wise, they are probably good for a goal per game, on average. Their attack is a lot more sophisticated than it was under Adkins, but really, the raw materials are the same, and their danger men are the same danger men as they were before. The keys to look out for are that Lambert is their target man, and needs to be marked tight; Ramirez will look to sort out the final ball, but will also try to play off Lambert; and Puncheon will bring the attacking drive with the ball at his feet. They play a 4-2-3-1 much like Chelsea do, with a tight attacking midfield three where the two outside AM's can switch sides if needed. The aim is to get the ball into Lambert (but with precision rather than hit-and-hope now under Pocchetino) and support him quickly with runs from Ramirez, Puncheon and possibly Lallana on the other side. Schneiderlin will push the team up from midfield to compress the space, and unlike the game at Anfield, they will actively hunt the ball and try to put us under pressure:
Yoshida at right back could be a danger as he is very aggressive going forward and very involved in their attacking moves and counter-attacks - however, the presence of Coutinho on the left wing for Liverpool and Pocchetino's knowledge of him might force him to either change the set-up and put Yoshida central and someone more defensive on the right of the defence, or give Yoshida a marking job on Coutinho.
Things to look out for from Southampton:
- Boruc delivers the ball centrally to Lambert or to the right for Puncheon/Yoshida to play for
- Lallana is the more conservative of the wide men and plays a lot of safe back-passes - vigilance for this might give a few chances to counter when they are pushed up the field
- The two main players for switching the play from side to side are Schneiderlin and Ramirez, and cutting off their passing options when they have the ball may force them to turn the ball over
- Puncheon can cut inside and favours shorter passes into Lambert or behind the defence
Liverpool -Liverpool, on the other hand, are on a good run of form, and should most likely field an unchanged side, although there are possibilities for players to be rested. The formation will either be the current 4-1-3-2/4-4-1-1 (depending on how you intepret Suarez's positioning and movement), with an unchanged side from the last few games:
There is a possibility within that shape for Skrtel to make a return to give Carragher a rest, and maybe even Wisdom for Johnson. The game plan will be more aggressive than it was against Spurs, being more like the first 25 minutes than the subsequent 25. The tempo will be high and there will probably be a desire to catch Southampton pushed up and play Sturridge in behind with Coutinho and Suarez supporting and Downing maintaining shape, with the fullbacks and Gerrard pushed up for attacking depth. If the key to the new Southampton manager is to hunt for the ball, then Liverpool will want to keep the ball in the So'ton half of the field for as long as possible and create chances for early goals. Coutinho might be marked tightly, so he may have to move inside more to find space, which will create space for Enrique while overloading the central area for Southampton with Suarez, Coutinho and Sturridge all putting pressure on the Southampton defence with Gerrard pushing up behind. There should be a decent amount of possession and a good number of chances, but the key will be to put them away. Boruc has a very low save percentage, so getting as many shots in quick succession early on might cause him to flap and give Liverpool the early goal they want.
Alternatively, though, Rodgers might see this as a game to rest Sturridge or Coutinho (most likely Sturridge) and have him come off the bench late on. If this happens, we could see Henderson on instead (for either player):
If he comes in for Coutinho, we'll play the same way but with Henderson moving from the inside to the outside - although this might give Yoshida space to get forward - and Sturridge and Suarez as you were. If he comes n for Sturridge, though, we will play the 4-3-3/2-3-2-3 formation again, with Coutinho/Suarez/Downing being the forward line, and Lucas/Gerrard/Henderson being the midfield. There is still a chance for the replacement of Johnson with Wisdom and Carragher with Skrtel in either of those selections.
Key Factors -
The key factors in this game for Liverpool will, defensively, come probably come down to how quiet we can keep their right side attack (Puncheon/Yoshida), and how tightly we can mark Lambert. If Lucas can do a pressing job on Ramirez, then they will end up hoping for punts down the field to Lambert that he might latch on to and might get a good shot on goal from once or twice in the game. If that happens, and Reina is in top form, then we should hold out for the clean sheet. If they don't even get that far, then it should be a comfortable win by 3 or 4 goals. There is always a chance of a blip, or a stellar performance from Southampton; but for them, with their remaining fixtures and still very much in danger of relegation, this might be a game where they won't mind giving up the result this week for a better result in a relegation 6-pointer later on - although a big name scalp will go a long way to helping them in that respect.
(Edit - they really only have Reading later as a 6 pointer. They have a very tough fixture list to the end of the season. How they look at that - positively or negatively - will probably dictate the results as much as tactics. Us, Chelsea then Reading, West Ham, Swansea and West Brom after that. They may fancy their chances more in those games than in the next two)
