Author Topic: The Top Six Mini-League Thread... Sponsored by TENA  (Read 343237 times)

Offline wige

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #40 on: March 14, 2017, 12:59:45 pm »
SNIP

I think we need 80 points to be safe but we probably wont get them.

Agreed if we get 80 we'll be safe.

Reality is that our season will probably end in  the hands of midtable teams with nothing to play for in May.

This isn't reality though, it's your pessimistic opinion/prediction. Hope you don't go to games and react with this sort of attitude to in game events. You're a huge part of the problem if so.

Offline Ciara (with a capital "C")

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #41 on: March 14, 2017, 01:30:18 pm »
I think City have quite a straight-forward run in, in terms of teams outside the top 6. I think we are going to be at the stage where we will need Chelsea to beat them and possibly United, whilst hoping United don't pick up wins against the other top 6 sides. They are unbeaten but their remaining fixtures are dreadful. They are surely favourites for the Europa League - surely that's their best chance of getting CL?

I don't think Arsenal have the worst run in either but they are in a precarious position generally, it's sink or swim for them. We should be grateful for Stoke taking points off City last week, that was massive for us.

I have us down for 75 points, but I am not sure that will be enough. Need to avoid defeat v City and we need to win every home game to stand a chance. And hope a lot of those top 6 games are draws perhaps, except where Chelsea are concerned - we need them to take maximum points.

If Burnley continue their home form they could do us a massive favour too. One thing from looking at all the fixtures is that Middlesbrough are fucked - think they play 5/6 top teams.

We really need to focus on ourselves and get our own form right. I agree with the person above who said momentum is key and we desperately need that.

Offline deFacto please, you bastards

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #42 on: March 14, 2017, 01:38:53 pm »
City's next three matches are us, Arsenal and Chelsea


With potentially Champions League fixtures and they also have a match with Arsenal in the FA Cup.

United will progress further in Europe meaning they have a grueling schedule. Spurs have lost Kane.

Its not straightforward for anyone other than Chelsea.

« Last Edit: March 14, 2017, 01:41:42 pm by deFacto »

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #43 on: March 14, 2017, 04:22:23 pm »
If Untied get through on Thursday, one bad result in the league could see them doing what we did last season, and put everything in the Europa League basket.

Offline Redman0151

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #44 on: March 14, 2017, 04:23:50 pm »
If Untied get through on Thursday, one bad result in the league could see them doing what we did last season, and put everything in the Europa League basket.

Indeed, and they have a much easier potential route to winning the trophy. No team even close to Dortmund or Sevilla left in
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Offline The G in Gerrard

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #45 on: March 14, 2017, 04:32:35 pm »
Indeed, and they have a much easier potential route to winning the trophy. No team even close to Dortmund or Sevilla left in
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Offline pyroparty

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #46 on: March 14, 2017, 04:34:07 pm »
Ain't Roma decent?

They're more Arsenal than Arsenal, complete bottlers and already in big trouble from the 1st leg anyway. Think top 4 this year is more vital than ever, if we miss out we could have a situation where our 5 rivals are all in and all get that extra cash.

Offline alvaro

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #47 on: March 14, 2017, 04:52:05 pm »
Agreed if we get 80 we'll be safe.

This isn't reality though, it's your pessimistic opinion/prediction. Hope you don't go to games and react with this sort of attitude to in game events. You're a huge part of the problem if so.

I said probably. Look at the fixtures mate. Arsenal will have to play 5 games in May, if they win them all then we are in big trouble.

Offline cornelius

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #48 on: March 14, 2017, 08:01:31 pm »
I have us down for 75 points, but I am not sure that will be enough. 
75 points will definitely be enough and I'd bite your arm off for that right now.

Offline KurtVerbose

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #49 on: March 14, 2017, 08:21:10 pm »
http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/39274784

Quote
Tottenham striker Harry Kane has suffered ligament damage to his right ankle but it is not considered to be as severe as the injury that sidelined him for seven weeks earlier this season.
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Offline NO COUTINHO

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #50 on: March 15, 2017, 12:42:43 am »
kane getting injured will be a huge blow for them. (any side would miss him to be honest) they've gone on a run with like 8 matches without winning when he was last injured i think.
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Offline Sir Psycho Sexy

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #51 on: March 15, 2017, 12:59:51 am »
kane getting injured will be a huge blow for them. (any side would miss him to be honest) they've gone on a run with like 8 matches without winning when he was last injured i think.
he wont miss that many I don't think. It's not as bad as last time and there's an international break
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Offline Bend It Like Aurelio

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #52 on: March 15, 2017, 06:16:08 am »
he wont miss that many I don't think. It's not as bad as last time and there's an international break

It will be enough to unsettle him and the team. Tottenham are very similar to ourselves, they need to play together to gain consistency. And Janssen not being the deputy that they envisioned him to be, means Alli and Son will be pulling more of the load. Even when Kane comes back their form will probably be out of wack, as he always needs time to get his sharpness back.

Offline jepovic

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #53 on: March 15, 2017, 07:53:46 am »
10 games left - of course it's in our hands! 85 points will always give top-four.  Even 75 might be enough.

I'm not sure if we have the form though, especially against the weaker teams.

I think it's going to be very close and exciting. ManU has the best form, but the fewest points, and now they need to win without Zlatan for a few games.

Offline keyop

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #54 on: March 15, 2017, 08:30:25 am »
I think we have a really great chance of 4th and even higher.

With the others having fixture congestion and playing each other more, I hope we can put our poor run behind us and build on the momentum of 3 wins in our last 4.

It would be fitting if Arsenal finish outside the CL places and Wenger goes - a real end to an era which could go either way for them. For Utd to finish outside the top 4 with Mourinho at the helm and with the money they've spent would represent a huge failure for them and give them the Thursday night trips across eastern Europe again next season. Without Kane, Spurs will draw and lose games much more frequently, and City also have CL and FA cup.

Think it will be Chelsea, City, Liverpool, Spurs, with Arsenal/Utd in 5th/6th place. Going from 8th to 4th in one season would be real progress - getting to 3rd or 2nd would be fantastic. Either way it will be a great foundation on which to build, and with a good summer of signings we could be competing on all fronts next season.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2017, 08:32:38 am by keyop »
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Offline LallanaInPyjamas

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #55 on: March 15, 2017, 09:58:01 am »
10 games left - of course it's in our hands! 85 points will always give top-four.  Even 75 might be enough.



75 points has been enough for top four in every season of the Premier League and I'd wager the First Division as well.

Offline Paul1611

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #56 on: March 15, 2017, 10:07:23 am »
I think we have a really great chance of 4th and even higher.

With the others having fixture congestion and playing each other more, I hope we can put our poor run behind us and build on the momentum of 3 wins in our last 4.

It would be fitting if Arsenal finish outside the CL places and Wenger goes - a real end to an era which could go either way for them. For Utd to finish outside the top 4 with Mourinho at the helm and with the money they've spent would represent a huge failure for them and give them the Thursday night trips across eastern Europe again next season. Without Kane, Spurs will draw and lose games much more frequently, and City also have CL and FA cup.

Think it will be Chelsea, City, Liverpool, Spurs, with Arsenal/Utd in 5th/6th place. Going from 8th to 4th in one season would be real progress - getting to 3rd or 2nd would be fantastic. Either way it will be a great foundation on which to build, and with a good summer of signings we could be competing on all fronts next season.

I hate to say it but Utd are the ones I fear.  Mourinho has a knack of grinding out those results when it matters and they are once again becoming hard to beat.  Although it might be more a personal fear as I have given SO much sh1t out to my Utd following mates this season ;)

Offline jepovic

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #57 on: March 15, 2017, 10:08:57 am »
75 points has been enough for top four in every season of the Premier League and I'd wager the First Division as well.
Yeah, it will probably do. This year's top six is very close though.
We will need to play better than we've done in the winter, but we don't need some kind of magic 13/14 form. For a title challenge, we do.

Offline LallanaInPyjamas

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #58 on: March 15, 2017, 10:27:43 am »
Yeah, it will probably do. This year's top six is very close though.
We will need to play better than we've done in the winter, but we don't need some kind of magic 13/14 form. For a title challenge, we do.

Our title challenge ended two months ago.

All we should be focusing on is winning 7 of our last 10 games and hitting that 76 points mark as it will almost definitely be enough to secure Champions League football next season.

An extra win would make absolutely sure I think.

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #59 on: March 15, 2017, 11:34:21 am »
We're so weird...our "easy" run on paper is actually fuckin hard for our crazy upside-down team!

Hopefully post-Everton....we get into the swing of picking up points in these games. They'll all be similar battles so we'll know what to do week in week out
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Offline Jookie

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #60 on: March 15, 2017, 01:21:26 pm »
I hate to say it but Utd are the ones I fear.  Mourinho has a knack of grinding out those results when it matters and they are once again becoming hard to beat.  Although it might be more a personal fear as I have given SO much sh1t out to my Utd following mates this season ;)

If you use 76 as the magic Top 4 points target. United would need to get 27 points out of a possible 36. On paper that seems do-able. In reality it seems  a huge challenge. As Alan_X stated their fixtures include Chelsea (H), City (A), Spurs (A) and Arsenal (A). They also have Burnley away (top 6 home record this season) and Everton at home. That's a relatively tough 6 games. Even if they won the other 6 games they'd still need 9 points out of those 6 to get to 76 points. At the moment United have only won 6 out of 14 home league games this season, albeit they've only lost one. That would need to improve dramatically if they are really going to push up to 76 points.

On the flip side, it's not beyond them. They are the outsiders though. With the quality left in the competition they have a golden opportunity to win the Europa League and qualify for the CL via that route. If they reach the latter stages of the competition the QF 2nd leg will fall between Chelsea at home and Burnley away. The 2 semi final legs will fall between Arsenal and Spurs away. That's a massive challenge to maintain performances across that many tough games in a short period of time. You've got to think that there's a potential scenario where they prioritise the Europa League games over the league encounters. That will hinder United's chance of getting Top 4 but it may help Spurs and Arsenal's case if they play weakened sides against them.
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Offline Alan_X

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #61 on: March 15, 2017, 01:47:57 pm »
10 games left - of course it's in our hands! 85 points will always give top-four.  Even 75 might be enough.

I'm not sure if we have the form though, especially against the weaker teams.

I think it's going to be very close and exciting. ManU has the best form, but the fewest points, and now they need to win without Zlatan for a few games.

'It's in our hands' means that if we win all our games no other team or teams can get enough to push us out of the top four. That was the point of my OP - taken on their own there are four teams that can get more points than us if they win all their games.
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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #62 on: March 15, 2017, 02:14:21 pm »
'It's in our hands' means that if we win all our games no other team or teams can get enough to push us out of the top four. That was the point of my OP - taken on their own there are four teams that can get more points than us if they win all their games.

But all four of those teams can't win all their games can they?

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #63 on: March 15, 2017, 02:23:31 pm »
But all four of those teams can't win all their games can they?
No, they play each other quite a bit, so multiple teams around us are going to drop 2-3 points in games against each other.

Offline Alan_X

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #64 on: March 15, 2017, 02:29:49 pm »
But all four of those teams can't win all their games can they?

Exactly - that's the point of the OP.
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Offline jepovic

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #65 on: March 15, 2017, 09:43:08 pm »
'It's in our hands' means that if we win all our games no other team or teams can get enough to push us out of the top four. That was the point of my OP - taken on their own there are four teams that can get more points than us if they win all their games.
Yes I see what you mean, but it's completely unrealistic that the other five would take all the points that they can get.
If we can find our form again, we'll be fine. 75 points will most probably be enough for top four, and we need a 2 point average for that. Not easy, but not too bad either.
I could absolutely see this being decided in the last round.

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #66 on: March 15, 2017, 09:51:34 pm »
Exactly - that's the point of the OP.

Always quick on the uptake me. :D

Offline Paul1611

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #67 on: March 16, 2017, 09:37:29 am »
If you use 76 as the magic Top 4 points target. United would need to get 27 points out of a possible 36. On paper that seems do-able. In reality it seems  a huge challenge. As Alan_X stated their fixtures include Chelsea (H), City (A), Spurs (A) and Arsenal (A). They also have Burnley away (top 6 home record this season) and Everton at home. That's a relatively tough 6 games. Even if they won the other 6 games they'd still need 9 points out of those 6 to get to 76 points. At the moment United have only won 6 out of 14 home league games this season, albeit they've only lost one. That would need to improve dramatically if they are really going to push up to 76 points.

On the flip side, it's not beyond them. They are the outsiders though. With the quality left in the competition they have a golden opportunity to win the Europa League and qualify for the CL via that route. If they reach the latter stages of the competition the QF 2nd leg will fall between Chelsea at home and Burnley away. The 2 semi final legs will fall between Arsenal and Spurs away. That's a massive challenge to maintain performances across that many tough games in a short period of time. You've got to think that there's a potential scenario where they prioritise the Europa League games over the league encounters. That will hinder United's chance of getting Top 4 but it may help Spurs and Arsenal's case if they play weakened sides against them.

Good points Jookie, bearing this in mind Utd may fall short, but I wonder if we have it in us to get to 75/76 points?  15 points from our previous 10 games...

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #68 on: March 16, 2017, 10:50:25 am »
This is useful - shows our chance of finishing in different places depending on what our results for the rest of the season:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Liverpool.html

75-plus points gives us over 90% chance of a top four finish, and a W6 D2 L2 finish seems achievable enough. All ifs and buts as ever though.

Offline Paul1611

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #69 on: March 16, 2017, 11:30:11 am »
This is useful - shows our chance of finishing in different places depending on what our results for the rest of the season:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Liverpool.html

75-plus points gives us over 90% chance of a top four finish, and a W6 D2 L2 finish seems achievable enough. All ifs and buts as ever though.

Interesting....  for us the stats/forecast suggest from our final 10 games:-
64-67pts = 6th (9-12 more pts)
68-71pts = 5th (13-16 more pts)
72-74pts = 4th (17-19 more pts)
75-78pts = 3rd (20-23 more pts)
79+ = 2nd (24+ pts)

As ever who knows what is going to happen!



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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #70 on: March 16, 2017, 11:50:32 am »
This is useful - shows our chance of finishing in different places depending on what our results for the rest of the season:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Liverpool.html

75-plus points gives us over 90% chance of a top four finish, and a W6 D2 L2 finish seems achievable enough. All ifs and buts as ever though.

Cheers. How come percentage chances differ slightly with the different combinations we can reach a certain points total?  Is it just predicting that GD might be slightly different?

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #71 on: March 16, 2017, 11:57:33 am »
Interesting....  for us the stats/forecast suggest from our final 10 games:-
64-67pts = 6th (9-12 more pts)
68-71pts = 5th (13-16 more pts)
72-74pts = 4th (17-19 more pts)
75-78pts = 3rd (20-23 more pts)
79+ = 2nd (24+ pts)

As ever who knows what is going to happen!

Just tried it using Man Utd's statistics and it came up with the following

49-85pts = 6th (0-36 more pts)


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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #72 on: March 16, 2017, 12:08:13 pm »
Cheers. How come percentage chances differ slightly with the different combinations we can reach a certain points total?  Is it just predicting that GD might be slightly different?

I'm not 100% sure, but as it knows the remaining fixtures to be played I think it takes account of all potential scenarios. So in one instance, we win on Sunday and Man City lose, which increases our chances and decreases theirs, or we draw, or they win etc. How we win the points (as in against who) will have an impact on how our rivals do and so where we can finish.

I would guess this has less influence on us now as we play fewer direct rivals for the top four than the other sides fighting for it though.

Offline Paul1611

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #73 on: March 16, 2017, 12:10:49 pm »
Just tried it using Man Utd's statistics and it came up with the following

49-85pts = 6th (0-36 more pts)

haha!  I've had so much fun with this point recently.

By the end of Saturday night they may actually be 7th!

Offline mkingdon

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #74 on: March 16, 2017, 12:41:50 pm »
United are likely to draw most of their games against the other top 6 sides as Jose sets up not to lose those types of games.

That would help us I think.

With one game a week and our injury issues hopefully coming to an end (Henderson aside) we have no reason not to be positive.  Win the next two and I'll be very confident that we will do it.

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #75 on: March 16, 2017, 12:45:54 pm »
With one game a week and our injury issues hopefully coming to an end (Henderson aside) we have no reason not to be positive.  Win the next two and I'll be very confident that we will do it.

Henderson could be back for the derby, thanks to the international break.

http://www.thisisanfield.com/2017/03/jordan-henderson-ruled-vs-man-city-dejan-lovren-doubt-new-injury/

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #76 on: March 17, 2017, 11:09:51 am »
This is the sort of well noticed situation thread that makes rawk so much better than other teams fan sites. Preceding with the proviso that points in the bag are better than games in hand, we do have a false reason for optimism with the current state of the of table. One or two games extra to earn points from for all of them takes away some of the initially optimistic observation. Injuries to Pogba and Kane help us, and our Burnley "ugly" win is a result in more ways than one. Let's see if it broke the Hoodoo when we get to Bournemouth and Stoke.
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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #77 on: March 18, 2017, 02:50:44 pm »
Regardless of what happens tomorrow, if we don't get top 4 now we'll only have ourselves to blame.

Offline NO COUTINHO

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #78 on: March 18, 2017, 02:56:01 pm »
We can go 8 clear of Arsenal and utd tomorrow if things go our way. starting to look like we might not need 80 pts for top 4 after all.
Barcelona BEATEN, Liverpool TRIUMPHANT, Messi MASHED on Merseyside

Offline Le_Mot_Juste

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Re: The Top Six Mini-League and the Run In...
« Reply #79 on: March 18, 2017, 03:23:56 pm »
Well well well. Starting to look tangibly realistic now.
To choose dogma and faith over doubt and experience is to throw out the ripening vintage and to reach greedily for the kool-aid.
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