An interesting analysis in this evening's London Standard by the editor of the New Statesman.
Tories’ Copeland win could spell political death for Jeremy Corbyn, writes Jason CowleyConservatives’ gain of the seat for the first time in over 80 years suggests Labour has lost its traditional identity
Jason Cowley
Labour’s defeat to the Tories in the Copeland by-election in Cumbria, which the party had held for more than 80 years, is a humiliation for Jeremy Corbyn and his moribund party. This is the first time a governing party had gained a seat in a by-election since Margaret Thatcher’s party won Mitcham and Morden in 1982.
The victorious candidate, Trudy Harrison, who increased the Tories’ share of the vote in this former Labour stronghold by more than eight per cent, hailed the victory as “truly historic”, while Labour MP John Woodcock called it a “disaster”, and even the shadow chancellor and Corbyn ally, John McDonnell, conceded it was a “profound disappointment”.
At a time in the electoral cycle when a credible opposition should be winning by-elections and riding high in the polls, Labour is in disarray: rejected, humiliated, ridiculed. It has all but collapsed in Scotland, where the Tory leader Ruth Davidson has emerged as the popular, unapologetic leader of Unionism. And in England the danger now is not that it will lose seats to Ukip — whose leader bad bootle meff was rejected yesterday in the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election, which Labour held on a low turnout after a dispiriting campaign — but to Theresa May’s Conservatives.
The Copeland result was a vindication for the Prime Minister. When I interviewed her in Downing Street recently she had a simple message for Labour: we are coming after your voters — and she is.
Because of its embrace of the radical Left, May accused Labour of abandoning many of its traditional supporters. The party was not responding to their concerns on issues such as “the impact of immigration on lower income levels”.
True enough: Corbyn favours mass immigration and open borders yet is an economic protectionist — a classic Marxist position but electoral suicide in our new, emerging, post-liberal era in which populist movements are rising across Europe and an America First nationalist is in the White House.
“I hope there are Labour voters,” May told me, “out there who will now look at us afresh and say, ‘Labour hasn’t responded to our concerns, it hasn’t recognised what matters to us, but the Conservatives have seen that and are responding to it’. I want our greater prosperity not to be confined to particular groups of people or a single part of the country.”
The polls suggest that more than just disaffected Labour voters are looking at the Tories afresh, as we embark on the epic challenge of negotiating the Brexit settlement.
May believes Brexit was not only a vote to leave the European Union but a demand for change from those people — many of them in places such as Copeland — who felt ignored and excluded from prosperity and greater opportunity.
Her vision is for a “Great Meritocracy” (whereas Corbyn’s is for a socialist republic) combining greater social justice with enhanced social mobility. It’s an intellectually fascinating and ambitious project and, if successful (and many doubt her, not least her own Right wing), it has the potential to condemn Labour to electoral oblivion.
The collapse of the Labour Party as a stable and credible political force is dismaying. Many of the party’s problems precede Corbyn, who is sincere and determined but is not a national leader. But then neither was Ed Miliband, who misunderstood the financial crisis, which he believed had created a “social democratic moment”, and misread the country he sought to govern. Miliband treated politics like an elevated Oxbridge PPE seminar and introduced the new rules by which the party elected its leader, disempowering MPs and creating the opportunity for the far Left to capture the party. Nice work, Ed!
The distinguished Cambridge historian Robert Tombs has called the European Union a system of “managed discontents”. Something similar could be said of Corbyn’s Labour, except that its discontents are scarcely managed at all.
Most Labour MPs despise or are embarrassed by their leader. The MPs are divided and demoralised, with some pondering whether to follow Tristram Hunt and Jamie Reed (whose departures created respectively the Stoke and Copeland by-elections) out of politics. The Corbynites are breaking up into factions (one hears talk of “hard” and “soft” Corbynites), and Corbyn himself is incapable of appealing to those who do not share his ideological convictions.
For now, the Labour leader retains the support of activists and members and, crucially, of Unite, Britain’s biggest union and the party’s paymaster. But even his friends must accept that he is leading the party in only one direction — into the abyss.
On the eve of the two by-elections, Corbyn posted a message on Facebook: “Whatever the results, the Labour Party — and our mass membership — must go further to break the failed political consensus, and win power to rebuild and transform Britain.”
The statement was received with derision on social media. The idea that Labour can win power any time soon (notwithstanding some black-swan event) is magical thinking. Corbyn’s personal ratings among traditional working class, semi-skilled and unskilled Labour voters are catastrophically poor. He appeals to students, affluent metropolitans with degrees and minority groups. As for the majority of the electorate, forget it.
MPs are reluctant to challenge Corbyn because they know any leadership contest would revitalise his leadership, as happened last summer when the Welsh MP Owen Smith mounted an ill-considered challenge. Nor is there a pre-eminent candidate waiting in the shadows, as Michael Heseltine was in the last years of the Thatcher administration.
So Labour will continue to be the Zombie Party: too weak to win but too strong to die. Its founding mission was to defend the labour interest and to create a fairer, more ethical society. But Labour has lost its role, its confidence and sense of purpose. Obsessed by identity liberalism, bewildered by Brexit and led by a radical socialist, Labour can only look on helplessly as the Tories start to win seats in its former heartlands and hunker down for another decade or more in power.
Jason Cowley is editor of the New Statesman
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/tories-copeland-win-could-spell-political-death-for-jeremy-corbyn-writes-jason-cowley-a3475476.htmlThis line should give pause for thought to Johnno, Trada and the other Corbynistas who keep banging on about the 'working man...'
"Corbyn’s personal ratings among traditional working class, semi-skilled and unskilled Labour voters are catastrophically poor. He appeals to students, affluent metropolitans with degrees and minority groups. As for the majority of the electorate, forget it."