Author Topic: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15  (Read 46767 times)

Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #200 on: February 25, 2015, 03:27:30 pm »
As I said in the Stats thread, I'd be very wary of using our last 12-13 matches as any sort of barometer because our unbalanced schedule has had us facing relatively mediocre opposition since the beginning of December.

We'll found out how good we really are in our run in.

Our form this entire season has been so erratic that I have no idea how we're going to do.

In that run of games, we've faced Spurs, Southampton, Arsenal, Everton and United, though. That's just under 50% of the schedule. So I think the schedule has been as balanced as can be, to be fair
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Offline Jack Slater

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #201 on: February 25, 2015, 11:44:35 pm »
If you pessimistic you'll always find a reason to doubt the team.
Putting it down to the absence of European games I think is just looking for rain clouds on a hot sunny day.

I dont think that we have better than 50:50 chance of finishing top 4.

I also go further than that, and do not think that we are one of two favourites, of the five contenders, to finish top 4.

Bookies have, roughly:

Arsenal:  80% (1/4)
MU:   56% (4/5)
Us:  35% (15/8)
So'ton:  25% (3/1)
Spurs:  17% (5/1)

Give or take Spurs and Southampton, I'd agree with that ordering.

I'd also say they're probably about right for us and MU.

I'd say Spurs' chances should be higher, and Arsenal's and maybe Southampton's slightly lower.

But around 35% for us is about right, imho, and so is having third best chance.




Offline farawayred

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #202 on: February 26, 2015, 12:06:58 am »
Bookies have, roughly:

Arsenal:  80% (1/4)
MU:   56% (4/5)
Us:  35% (15/8)
So'ton:  25% (3/1)
Spurs:  17% (5/1)
One problem referring to the bookies favorites is that things can change in a blink, and they do. Remember our odds for winning the FA Cup before and after the draw? What the bookies don't account for is the slump Arsenal tend to go into every season, which has just started with their loss to Monaco and very likely CL exit, and the other one is that United have had easy games and their luck won't continue forever. On paper, Arsenal should be free to focus on the league and the FA Cup, but papers have been wrong. All it takes is to lose confidence, and it will depend on how they react to the CL exit. But I would tip them for one spot of the top 4. Imho, Us and United have close odds, so I'd agree with your 50-50 assessment, but I think that we can edge them, especially if we win against City. Southampton may arrest their fall and start playing well again when their injured players come back, so they are in the mix too. And Spurs are always in the mix, because they always support the drama around the battle for the top 4. :)
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Offline zabadoh

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #203 on: February 26, 2015, 03:22:15 am »
In that run of games, we've faced Spurs, Southampton, Arsenal, Everton and United, though. That's just under 50% of the schedule. So I think the schedule has been as balanced as can be, to be fair

I should have worded it better:  Except for Everton, those were all equivalent matches that we won last season.  Equivalent matches we drew or lost, for whatever reasons, seem to be concentrated at the front and back ends of this season.

Arsenal:  80% (1/4)
MU:   56% (4/5)
Us:  35% (15/8)
So'ton:  25% (3/1)
Spurs:  17% (5/1)

The problem is that bookies' odds are based on punters' emotions.  If some side is looking unusually attractive, the money and bookies' odds will flow to them, regardless of how the underlying fundamentals are.

That's Southampton, IMO.

The opposite is true as well.  A team that is punished by a difficult run in their schedule will have bookies' odds flow away from them, even if they are doing just as well or better than last season.

That's Spurs, whom IMO are in great position for 3rd or 4th, despite their current 7th place in the table, because they have actually improved upon their equivalent results from last season.
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Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #204 on: February 26, 2015, 03:23:54 am »
I should have worded it better:  Except for Everton, those were all equivalent matches that we won last season.  Equivalent matches we drew or lost, for whatever reasons, seem to be concentrated at the front and back ends of this season.




Ah, gotcha. Makes sense that way.
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Offline Jack Slater

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #205 on: February 26, 2015, 08:33:30 am »

Re bookies' odds, no-one is saying that they represent some sort of Gospel truth.

I was quoting them in relation to the earlier posts which were debating whether it was "optimistic" to think we will be Top 4, or "pessimistic" to think that we wont.

I'm sure that, like Goldilocks, we each think that our own expectations are just right; anyone expecting more is too optimistic, and anyone expecting less is too pessimistic.

All I'm saying is that the bookies' odds give and approximate indication of the centre of the bell curve.  If the betting market has settled down at odds showing that LFC has 30-40% chance of top 4, then that is quite a good indication that about 50% of betters think our chances are better than that, and around 50% think our chances are worse.

Obviously the odds reflect things other than individual better's personal opinions.  They take into account the opinion of the bookies' own experts, and the need to make a profit, and can also be influenced by one person betting hundred thousand pounds on one outcome, which can outweigh ten thousand people betting ten pounds on the other outcome.  Also not every better is motivated by a desire for profit.  Some bet based on what they hope will happen (England to win the world cup, LOL)

But even allowing for those other things, imho, the fact that the bookies have our odds quite a bit longer than MU and Arse is a fairly reliable indication that the majority of betters, across all teams or none, across all bet sizes, think that those two teams have a better chance than we do.


One problem referring to the bookies favorites is that things can change in a blink, and they do. Remember our odds for winning the FA Cup before and after the draw?

Yeah, odds change over time.  But that does not mean that they were "wrong" before they changed, or that they were "wrong" after they changed.

Isnt it correct that our chances of winning the cup are higher given a LFC v Blackburn; MU v Arse draw than they would be following a Arse v Blackburn; MU v LFC draw?

I think we were roughly 3/1 for top 4 before beating Southampton, and now we're about 2/1.  We might have been as much as 5/1 to 10/1 if we had lost that single game.  But I think that's a reasonable reflection of reality, rather than simply a quirk which demontrate a flaw in the way that odds are decided upon.

Same might happen when we play MU.  What the odds are at the start of play will depend on what has happened between now and then.  But if either team wins that game, then their odds will inevitably shorten, and the opponent's will lengthen. 

And that is because it is true that, for example, LFC has a much better chance of finishing top 4 if it beats MU compared to if it loses.  It does not mean, of course, that LFC is guaranteed top 4 by winning that one match, or that top 4 is impossible following a defeat. 


A team that is punished by a difficult run in their schedule will have bookies' odds flow away from them, even if they are doing just as well or better than last season.

That's Spurs, whom IMO are in great position for 3rd or 4th, despite their current 7th place in the table, because they have actually improved upon their equivalent results from last season.

Excellent points and, of course, that is the whole point of this thread.  ie to show that just because one team gets 7 points from (say) Games 20, 21, 22 does not always mean that they should be considered to have done "better" than another team which gets 4 points from its own Games 20, 21, 22.

My other recent posts higher up the the thread explain why my personal opinion is that we are more likely to be outside the top 4 than within it.  I am not basing my personal opinion on the bookies' odds.  I was just mentioning those odds to compare them to my personal opinion. 

Contrary to the bookies', I think Arse has lower than 80% chance, but - as per the bookies - I also think Arse's chances are better than any of the other 4.

Contrary to the bookies', I think Spurs has higher than 17% chance, but - as per the bookies - I do not think Spurs chances are better than LFC or MU.  I would not be surprised if Spurs finish above Southampton, but, from an LFC perspective, the relative chances of Spurs/Soton compared to each other matter less than the fact that LFC's chances are lower relative to both Arse and MU.






Offline Roger Federer

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #206 on: February 26, 2015, 10:00:23 am »
Does anyone in this thread know how great the correlation between the results from season to season actually is? The whole point of the thread is to compare to last year, and I really enjoy reading it, but how similar are results from year to year? I realise it would take a lot of work, but is it reasonable to expect, for example, Spurs to gain as many points against the teams they have left as they did last year (as Zabadoh says, in this table they look very good, and are on course for 3-4th place)? Two eqvivalent fixture in the remaining schedule, say the last two, could after all have been played anywhere from a year to about 20 months before that, which should make comparisions quite difficult. It would be interesting to know anyway.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2015, 11:29:47 am by Roger Federer »

Offline zabadoh

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #207 on: February 26, 2015, 03:46:38 pm »
@Federer:  The rate of the same result between equivalent matches is somewhere between 40-50%.  Just count the number of horizontal plots between a team's datapoints in the graph.

Right now, we, Liverpool, are at 58% (15/26) likely because of the remarkable string of prior season equivalent wins we went through December through the present, but I suspect that will come down (for better or worse) as more volatile matches come up starting in March.

In contrast, Yernited are 35% (9/26), Chelsea are 50% (13/26), Manchester City are 42% (11/26), Arsenal 54% (14/26), Spurs 50%(13/26), Everton 46% (12/26), Southampton 46% (12/26)

Adding all of those up, the average so far this season for the 8 teams I'm tracking is 48%

edit:  I have no idea whether 48% equivalent matching results validates this method or not.  If league football was just win or lose, I would expect a "blindfolded throwing at a dartboard" match ratio of 50%.  But because we have a significant number of draws as well (28.5% draws in the PL according to some random gambling site I googled), that complicates things beyond my ken. 

Any stats wizards want to enlighten us?
« Last Edit: February 27, 2015, 05:21:39 am by zabadoh »
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Offline zabadoh

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #208 on: March 2, 2015, 03:02:49 am »
Good results for ManU and Arsenal.

No changes for us or City because we won the equivalent match last season.



Projected PointsCumulative Pts Differential  Cumulative Goals For Diff.  Cumulative Goals Against Diff.  Cumulative Goals Diff. 
Chelsea89+7+13+5+8
Man City88+20-1+1
Arsenal77-2+3-4+7
Spurs75+6+8-4+12
Liverpool68-16-38-4-34
Man Utd65+1-1-1+2
Soton57+1+60+6
Everton52-20-12+8-20
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Offline Jack Slater

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #209 on: March 2, 2015, 08:17:28 am »
I have no idea whether 48% equivalent matching results validates this method or not. ...

(28.5% draws in the PL according to some random gambling site I googled)...

This season -  Home win / Away win / Draw : 43: 29: 28
Last season - 47: 32: 21
12/13 - 44: 28: 28

In terms of this method, it could never be "perfect" unless every team was to finish with the same points each season (which doesnt happen) and had exactly the same results each season (which doesnt happen) and with exactly the same scorelines (which doesnt happen).


But as a tool for helping to interpret the current league table, I think it is a good one.  It's important to take into account both comparisons (time and equivalent match).  If the two comparisons both show the team doing better than last season (or both doing worse), then we can be confident that the team is on track to finish with more (or less) than the previous season, and possibly make an estimate of how much better (or worse). 

When the comparisons point in different directions, then that is an important and useful piece of evidence, but the power of prediction breaks down.  For example, if (say) Arsenal were to be 3 points clear at top of table, and 6 points better than their previous season on the time comparison, then most pundits would be bigging them up.  But readers of this thread might be aware that they were actually 12 points worse off on the equivalent match comparison, and would therefore have a sound reason to challenge the orthodox view that Arsenal were on course to win the league. 

Of course, to win the league, a team which is not the reigning champions generally has to beat its equivalent match comparison by a wide margin.  So it is not possible to say "Arsenal definitely will not win league, because their equivalent match comparison proves they will finish with 12 points less than last season".  BUT it is possible to say "Hang on.  Don't get to carried away by Arsenal's current form.  Scratch the surface and you'll see that they may just be where they are because of the order of the fixture list this season"

Basically that's what happened last seaon, if I remember correctly.  Arsenal did well early on (they led almost continuously from early Sep to the start of Feb), but the equivalent match comparison always showed a different story.





Offline Jack Slater

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #210 on: March 2, 2015, 08:32:21 am »

So 5 of our 11 are against current top 10.  Our form is good against current top 10:

1   CHE   Pld 12,   Pts   25,   PPG 2.08
2   LIV   13,   25,   1.92
3   MCI   13,   21,   1.62
4   MUN   13,   19,   1.46
5   TOT   13,   18,   1.38
6   SOT   14,   17,   1.21
7   STO  12,   14,   1.17
8   ARS   13,   15,   1.15


3 are against current top 7.  We're also doing fairly well in those matches.

The top 7 mini league:

        
1   LIV   9,      16,   1.78
2   MCI   9,      15,   1.67
3   CHE   8,      13,   1.62
4   MUN   7,      11,   1.57
5   TOT   9,      11,   1.22
6   ARS   9,      9,   1.00
7   SOT   9,      7,   0.78


However, those 3 same fixtures are actually against the current top 4.  We're not doing so well in that mini league, because most of our points in the previous table came from doubles over Southampton and Spurs.  Yesterday's win has helped, though.

Top 5 mini league

        
1   CHE   5,      9,   1.80
2   MUN   4,      7,   1.75
3   MCI   7,      9,   1.29
4   ARS   5,      5,   1.00
5   LIV   5,      4,   0.80





Offline Jack Slater

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #211 on: March 4, 2015, 12:31:25 am »
There'd have been some very different headlines if the start of the season had been based on the actual results we have seen from 29 November onwards.

The top 4 would have all played 15 games.

Joint top on 34 points, both Wenger and Rodgers would be hearing how safe their jobs were, and how they had silenced the doubters.

Joint third on 31 points, Pellegrini might have some questions to answer, but Van Gaal's start would be seen as a solid improvement on the Moyes era

Mourinho would have 1 game in hand.  But would that be enough to stop talk of the sack, being 6 points off the top, and 3 off the champions league.

Koeman would be mid-table (9th, 11 points off the top, and 8 off the CL spots having played a game more).  A fair amount of praise would come his way considering Southampton had been many people's dark horses for relegation.  But nothing spectacular.

Meanwhile, one place and 2 points worse off (albeit with game in hand on Southampton), Fat Sam would hardly be defying any expectations with a solid 10th place.

But the major headlines would all belong to Roberto Martinez.  15 points from 14 games would see them second from bottom.  Only Leicester would be below them, and even Leicester could overtake with a 2 goal victory in their game in hand.  Having less points than Burnley, Villa, Sunderland and QPR (as well as everyone else) would be a major talking point.

At least they would have 2 more goals than Villa (11 to 9).







Offline zabadoh

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #212 on: March 4, 2015, 04:01:08 am »
This round's SCoRE chart:



Chelsea have scheduled their make up match against Leicester City almost at the end of the season on April 29th.  How important is that?  Should be a gimme for Chelsea, so Man City will have to go 3 points ahead of them in the real table until then.
« Last Edit: March 4, 2015, 04:10:04 am by zabadoh »
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Offline suede lady

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #213 on: March 4, 2015, 10:04:27 pm »
A shame all teams around us also keep picking up three points - Tottenham, Southampton, United and Arsenal all won so we are no nearer third place than before.

Offline Jack Slater

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #214 on: March 5, 2015, 12:41:31 am »
A shame all teams around us also keep picking up three points - Tottenham, Southampton, United and Arsenal all won so we are no nearer third place than before.

Yep.  Even with the decent form we have shown after our very poor 12 game start, we have not gained enough ground on our closest rivals.  Over the last 16 games, we're neck and neck with Arse (and slightly worse GD than them) and only 3 points better than MU.

We've done well to overhaul the massive (12 point) gap that existed to Southampton.  But the respective 6 point and 3 point leads that MU and Arse had already built up over the first 12 games have been much harder to rein in. 

Everton's form over the last 16 games has been amazing, though.  Good job they did so "well" (to reach 9th place, with 17 points) in the first 12 matches, or else they might have been in for another relegation scrap.


Last 16 Games
       
1   ARS   37   
2   LIV   37   
3   MCI   34   
4   CHE   34   
5   MUN   34   
6   TOT   33   
7   STO   27   
8   SOT   23   
9   SWA   22   
10   WHU   21   
11   CPA   18   
12   WBA   17   
13   HUL   16   
14   NEW   16   
15   QPR   14   
16   SUN   13   
17   ASV   13   
18   BUR   12   
19   EVE   11   
20   LEI   09   



« Last Edit: March 5, 2015, 12:43:26 am by Jack Slater »

Offline farawayred

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #215 on: March 5, 2015, 04:50:30 am »
United's luck is going to run out eventually. Their goal today was like in a schoolboy game. NewcStle were absolutely terrible for the goal. And a goal at the 89th minute at that.
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Offline zabadoh

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #216 on: March 5, 2015, 09:35:24 am »
Pretty much a meh update as history repeats itself up and down the chart.  Except for Everton sliding into the abyss :)

Next up is our first opportunity in a looong time to climb upwards on this comparison as we drew at Swansea last season.  Matches we lost or drew last season are coming thick and fast from here to the end.

« Last Edit: March 5, 2015, 09:40:21 am by zabadoh »
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Offline myrlas

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #217 on: March 13, 2015, 01:18:58 pm »
I don't know if anyone have mentioned it before, but if we beat Swansea monday it will be the first result this season that is improvement in this model since the first round vs Soton!!

That tells us plenty about our early form, and awkward fixture list up against this model this season.
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Offline zabadoh

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #218 on: March 14, 2015, 02:45:50 am »
Good eye!  Although we fluffed our previous chance to improve at Goodison 5 rounds ago.

That probably says more about how spectacular last season was that we have just about failed to improve any results this time round.
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Offline Jack Slater

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #219 on: March 16, 2015, 06:49:39 am »

Top 7 Mini Table

1.  LIV Pld 9, Pts 16, PPG 1.78
2.  MCI  9,  15,  1.67
3.  MUN  8,  14,  1.75
4.  CHE  9,  14,  1.56
5.  TOT  10,  11,  1.10
6.  ARS  9,  9,  1.00
7.  SOT  10,  8,  0.80




Offline Jack Slater

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #220 on: March 16, 2015, 06:59:18 am »
I don't know if anyone have mentioned it before, but if we beat Swansea monday it will be the first result this season that is improvement in this model since the first round vs Soton!!

That tells us plenty about our early form, and awkward fixture list up against this model this season.

It's an interesting point that we gone so many games without improvement. 

Although the glass half empty point of view is that our form over our last 16 games - which has been reasonably good in an absolute sense - is less impressive when it is noted that we havent actually improved on the same fixtures from last season.



Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #221 on: March 16, 2015, 09:29:51 am »
It's an interesting point that we gone so many games without improvement. 

Although the glass half empty point of view is that our form over our last 16 games - which has been reasonably good in an absolute sense - is less impressive when it is noted that we havent actually improved on the same fixtures from last season.

The glass half full point of view is that last season was title challenging, if we had matched all results without being able to better, we'd be in a title race now.

Offline zabadoh

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #222 on: March 17, 2015, 04:34:02 am »
...and that was the help we needed to catch Spurs!  OTOH, ManU are hot on our tail.  It's still a three sided coin flip as to whom will take 4th.

If we can beat both the Mancs and Arsenal in our next 2 league matches...

Chelsea seem determined to make it a close race for the title, no matter how hard Man City want to give it away.



Modified the table to sort by projected points, then projected GD

Projected PointsProjected GDCumulative Pts DifferentialCumulative Goals For Diff.Cumulative Goals Against Diff.Cumulative Goals Diff.
Chelsea87+48+5+9+5+4
Man City85+58-1-9-2-7
Arsenal77+31-2+2-2+4
Spurs72+12+3+9+1+8
Liverpool70+10-14-41-6-35
Man Utd68+24+4-2-3+3
Soton58+15+2+5-2+7
Everton51+2-21-13+7-20
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Offline Jack Slater

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #223 on: March 17, 2015, 06:41:46 am »
The glass half full point of view is that last season was title challenging, if we had matched all results without being able to better, we'd be in a title race now.

Yeah, I realise that; but it isnt what I was getting at.

I was saying that even if you stripped our poor first 12 games out of the picture, and looked only at (at the time of writing) the 16 games in which we had climbed from 12th to 5th, then even then we had not matched/improved upon last season.

Almost certainly, if we want to win the league, we will have to improve on last season over 38 games.  The fact that we have not managed the task of improving over a much shorter (less than half) period, even when seemingly doing well, shows how difficult winning the league would be.



Offline Jack Slater

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #224 on: March 17, 2015, 07:24:57 am »

9 games left for most teams, 10 for Chelsea.  If each team matches its points haul for the last 9 games in the next 9 games (or 10 for 10 in Chelsea's case) then we'd have the following.

1.  CHE 83
2.  ARS 81
3.  LIV 79
4.  MUN 75
5.  MCI 70
6.  TOT 66
7.  SOU  64


Our league position was lowest after the first 12 games.  The best performers in the 17 games since then are:

1.  ARS 40 points
2.  LIV 40
3.  MUN 37
4.  MCI 34
5.  TOT 33
6.  CHE 32 from 16 games
7.  STO 27
8.  SOT 24

It's our misfortune, perhaps, that the two teams that we might well have singled out as our biggest rivals for top 4 (ARS and MUN) have been the best performers, along with us, over this period.

But glass half full, other teams above us after 12 games included SOT (12 points ahead), NEW, EVE and TOT.  We've overhauled all of them (so far).  It's obviously kind of self-fulfilling to some extent that whichever of our rivals continued to do well would be the same teams that we might still be behind at this stage. 

Closing 6 points on MCI is an unexpected bonus.  They still have to play MUN, TOT and SOT.  A few weeks ago, it would have been important to us that MCI won all those games.  Now, we even have a (slightly farfetched) chance of getting past them if our form and theirs both continue.


Our match against MUN on 14 December has been singled out as our turning point.  Even though we lost that match (having taken 7 points from the 3 preceding game) the significance is the start of playing the new formation on a regular basis.

Based on matches starting from, and including, 14 December, the top PPG are:

1.  ARS  2.38
2.  LIV  2.36
3.  CHE  2.08
4.  TOT  2.07
5.  MUN  2.00
6.  SOT  1.85
7.  STO  1.77
8.  MCI  1.69

If each team kept on at that rate to end of season, we'd have:

1.  CHE  84
2.  ARS  78
3.  LIV  75
4.  MUN  74
5.  MCI  73
6.  TOT  68 or 69
7.  SOT  66 or 67





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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #225 on: March 17, 2015, 09:51:21 pm »
So you're saying we've got a chance....
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Offline Jack Slater

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #226 on: March 18, 2015, 06:44:32 am »
So you're saying we've got a chance....

We could get first place provided we win all our games and Chelsea (as well as losing to us) have either 4 non-wins (lose 3, draw 1) or 5 non-wins (lose 1, draw 4) and City have either 2 non-wins (lose 1, draw 1) or 3 non-wins (draw 3) and Arsenal (as well as losing to us) have  1 non-win.












So, yes.  I'm saying there's a chance. 



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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #227 on: March 18, 2015, 07:13:02 am »
So, yes.  I'm saying there's a chance. 

And here's how we'll do it...

Tool to use is this: http://www.thefishy.co.uk/calc.php

My results... 
Team      P   Pts 
Liverpool   38   79 
Chelsea   38   77 
Man City   38   73 
Man Utd   38   72 
Arsenal   38   68 
Tottenham   38   67 

Draw Win
21 03 15   Man City   West Brom 
21 03 15   Newcastle   Arsenal 
22 03 15   Liverpool   Man Utd 
22 03 15   Hull   Chelsea 
04 04 15   Arsenal   Liverpool 
04 04 15   Man Utd   Aston Villa 
04 04 15   Chelsea   Stoke 
06 04 15   Crystal Palace   Man City
11 04 15   Burnley   Arsenal
12 04 15   QPR   Chelsea 
12 04 15   Man Utd   Man City 
13 04 15   Liverpool   Newcastle 
18 04 15   Arsenal   Sunderland
18 04 15   Hull   Liverpool 
18 04 15   Chelsea   Man Utd 
19 04 15   Man City   West Ham 
25 04 15   West Brom   Liverpool
25 04 15   Man City   Aston Villa 
26 04 15   Everton   Man Utd 
26 04 15   Arsenal   Chelsea 
29 04 15   Leicester   Chelsea 
02 05 15   Chelsea   Crystal Palace 
02 05 15   Hull   Arsenal
02 05 15   Liverpool   QPR 
02 05 15   Man Utd   West Brom 
02 05 15   Tottenham   Man City 
09 05 15   Arsenal   Swansea 
09 05 15   Chelsea   Liverpool
09 05 15   Crystal Palace   Man Utd 
09 05 15   Man City   QPR 
16 05 15   Liverpool   Crystal Palace 
16 05 15   Man Utd   Arsenal
16 05 15   Swansea   Man City 
16 05 15   West Brom   Chelsea 
24 05 15   Arsenal   West Brom 
24 05 15   Chelsea   Sunderland 
24 05 15   Hull   Man Utd 
24 05 15   Man City   Southampton 
24 05 15   Stoke   Liverpool 

Go ahead, prove it isn't possible! :p

Offline drmick

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #228 on: March 18, 2015, 06:11:06 pm »
And here's how we'll do it...

Tool to use is this: http://www.thefishy.co.uk/calc.php

My results... 
Team      P   Pts 
Liverpool   38   79 
Chelsea   38   77 
Man City   38   73 
Man Utd   38   72 
Arsenal   38   68 
Tottenham   38   67 

Draw Win
21 03 15   Man City   West Brom 
21 03 15   Newcastle   Arsenal 
22 03 15   Liverpool   Man Utd 
22 03 15   Hull   Chelsea 
04 04 15   Arsenal   Liverpool 
04 04 15   Man Utd   Aston Villa 
04 04 15   Chelsea   Stoke 
06 04 15   Crystal Palace   Man City
11 04 15   Burnley   Arsenal
12 04 15   QPR   Chelsea 
12 04 15   Man Utd   Man City 
13 04 15   Liverpool   Newcastle 
18 04 15   Arsenal   Sunderland
18 04 15   Hull   Liverpool 
18 04 15   Chelsea   Man Utd 
19 04 15   Man City   West Ham 
25 04 15   West Brom   Liverpool
25 04 15   Man City   Aston Villa 
26 04 15   Everton   Man Utd 
26 04 15   Arsenal   Chelsea 
29 04 15   Leicester   Chelsea 
02 05 15   Chelsea   Crystal Palace 
02 05 15   Hull   Arsenal
02 05 15   Liverpool   QPR 
02 05 15   Man Utd   West Brom 
02 05 15   Tottenham   Man City 
09 05 15   Arsenal   Swansea 
09 05 15   Chelsea   Liverpool
09 05 15   Crystal Palace   Man Utd 
09 05 15   Man City   QPR 
16 05 15   Liverpool   Crystal Palace 
16 05 15   Man Utd   Arsenal
16 05 15   Swansea   Man City 
16 05 15   West Brom   Chelsea 
24 05 15   Arsenal   West Brom 
24 05 15   Chelsea   Sunderland 
24 05 15   Hull   Man Utd 
24 05 15   Man City   Southampton 
24 05 15   Stoke   Liverpool 

Go ahead, prove it isn't possible! :p

You had me. Until I saw Arsenal in 5th.

Offline zabadoh

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #229 on: March 23, 2015, 05:19:57 am »


Our remaining equivalent fixtures:

Arsenal    2–0    Liverpool
Liverpool    2–1    Newcastle United
Hull City    3–1    Liverpool
West Bromwich Albion    1–1    Liverpool
Liverpool    3–1    Сardiff City
Chelsea    2–1    Liverpool
Liverpool    3–1    Crystal Palace
Stoke City    3–5    Liverpool

There are good opportunities for improvement with additional wins at Hull City and WBA.
At Arsenal and Chelsea not so much, but you never know... 

Projected PointsProjected GDCumulative Pts DifferentialCumulative Goals For Diff.Cumulative Goals Against Diff.Cumulative Goals Diff.
Chelsea87+47+5+10+7+3
Man City85+59-1-9-3-6
Arsenal77+31-2+3-1+4
Spurs72+11+3+11+4+7
Man Utd71+26+70-3+5
Liverpool67+10-17-41-4-37
Soton58+15+2+5-2+7
Everton53+3-19-11+8-19
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Offline zabadoh

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #230 on: April 7, 2015, 07:59:45 am »
Spurs might fall towards us.  At projected 4 points ahead, we'll need 2 or 3 results in our favor to pull ahead of United.  And we'll need to pull ahead of them because of our inferior GD.

Obviously losing to Palace was a disaster for City.



Projected PointsProjected GDCumulative Pts DifferentialCumulative Goals For Diff.Cumulative Goals Against Diff.Cumulative Goals Diff.
Chelsea87+46+5+9+7+2
Man City82+56-4-10-1-9
Arsenal77+32-2+50+5
Man Utd71+25+7-1-3+4
Spurs70+10+1+9+3+6
Liverpool67+11-17-40-2-38
Soton58+15+2+4-3+7
Everton53+3-19-12+7-19
« Last Edit: April 7, 2015, 08:02:01 am by zabadoh »
“It's impossible,” said Pride.  “It's risky,” said Experience.  “It's pointless,” said Reason.

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Offline Brian Blessed

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #231 on: April 7, 2015, 02:17:04 pm »
I think we have more chance of catching Manchester City.

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #232 on: April 7, 2015, 11:59:36 pm »
-40 in the goals scored column. Fucking hell.
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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #233 on: April 8, 2015, 12:23:05 am »
-40 in the goals scored column. Fucking hell.
Yep. I brought this up some time ago, and unfortunately, the situation hasn't changed yet... We don't have a single player in the top scorers chart on BBC, which lists everyone with >6 goals (note that Swansea's Ki Sung-Yueng and Leicester's Leonardo Ulloa are on 7 league goals, but are missed in the table):
http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/premier-league/top-scorers
Only Sunderland and Palace, the latter of which will probably get relegated, share that feat with us!... Even Leicester has a higher scorer than us, Leicester, FFS!

I know that one swallow doesn't make a spring, but talk about our goal scoring problems...
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Offline drmick

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #234 on: April 9, 2015, 01:48:51 pm »
Yep. I brought this up some time ago, and unfortunately, the situation hasn't changed yet... We don't have a single player in the top scorers chart on BBC, which lists everyone with >6 goals (note that Swansea's Ki Sung-Yueng and Leicester's Leonardo Ulloa are on 7 league goals, but are missed in the table):
http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/premier-league/top-scorers
Only Sunderland and Palace, the latter of which will probably get relegated, share that feat with us!... Even Leicester has a higher scorer than us, Leicester, FFS!

I know that one swallow doesn't make a spring, but talk about our goal scoring problems...

Wow.  How many goals did Borini finish up with last season?


Offline zabadoh

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #235 on: April 9, 2015, 06:48:14 pm »
Wow.  How many goals did Borini finish up with last season?



With Sunderland 32 league apps, 7 league goals, 3 League Cup goals

Yer lazy basterd http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabio_Borini
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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #236 on: April 10, 2015, 04:42:35 am »
-40 in the goals scored column. Fucking hell.

That's about a Suarez-sized hole in our attack (13/14 League 31 goals, 12 assists)
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Offline drmick

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #237 on: April 10, 2015, 04:46:14 pm »
With Sunderland 32 league apps, 7 league goals, 3 League Cup goals

Yer lazy basterd http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabio_Borini

It seemed like more due to so many being crucial.

We so desperately need a striker.  Lots of little transfer stories all round the place, in and out, but it looks like our striker business will be Origi, and maybe Ings........

Offline zabadoh

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #238 on: April 14, 2015, 04:51:23 am »
Man City are out of the title race, unless Chelsea have their own collapse.

Spurs have fallen to our level, but we're ahead on projected goal difference, so we're projected for 5th, poisoned chalice as it is.

Good opportunity for us to "improve" next round by beating Hull City, whom we lost to last season.

Another good opportunity the following round against WBA, with whom we tied.




Projected PointsProjected GDCumulative Pts DifferentialCumulative Goals For Diff.Cumulative Goals Against Diff.Cumulative Goals Diff.
Chelsea87+46+5+8+6+2
Man City79+51-7-11+3-14
Arsenal77+31-2+3-1+4
Man Utd74+30+10+3-4+9
Liverpool67+11-17-40-3-37
Spurs67+6-2+6+4+2
Soton58+14+2+2-4+6
Everton51+2-21-13+7-20
« Last Edit: April 14, 2015, 04:55:47 am by zabadoh »
“It's impossible,” said Pride.  “It's risky,” said Experience.  “It's pointless,” said Reason.

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Offline zabadoh

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15
« Reply #239 on: April 28, 2015, 10:22:52 pm »
Sorry guys, just waiting for this match in case something interesting happened.

Well, the cold comfort is that we didn't lose any ground, because we lost the same fixture last season 3-1.  In fact our cumulative GD went up +1 because we lost the equivalent match from last season by 2 goals and only by 1 goal this time. 

The bad news is that was our last realistic chance to improve on last season's results.  The last remaining negative equivalent result to improve upon is Chelsea away.  The rest of the remaining schedule is equivalent wins.

Spurs seem to be determined to give us 5th.



Projected PointsProjected GDCumulative Pts DifferentialCumulative Goals For Diff.Cumulative Goals Against Diff.Cumulative Goals Diff.
Chelsea87+45+5+6+5+1
Man City79+48-7-12+5-17
Arsenal77+31-2+3-1+4
Man Utd74+30+10+2-5+9
Liverpool67+9-17-42-6-36
Spurs65+3-4+4+5-1
Soton58+14+2+3-3+6
Everton51+1-21-15+6-21
« Last Edit: April 30, 2015, 04:08:35 am by zabadoh »
“It's impossible,” said Pride.  “It's risky,” said Experience.  “It's pointless,” said Reason.

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