Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15

[Prof]

[MacAttack]

A win away to Swansea (after a week's rest) and United dropping points to Spurs would see a huge swing.

[QC]

Madness that we still haven't broken into the top 4 despite our form.

[MerseysideBrum]

Madness that we still haven't broken into the top 4 despite our form.

Not really considering our form at the start of the season. We don't even average 2 points a game yet which is pretty standard for top 4.

[DanA]

Not really considering our form at the start of the season. We don't even average 2 points a game yet which is pretty standard for top 4.

Isn't the whole premise of this thread that 70 points or approximately 1.84 points per game will get you top four? we won't average 2 ppg this season but you are wrong to suggest it is required to finish top four.

[rickardinho1]

United have actually matched chelsea in the APLT since gw10, how the hell did that happen?!

[Redman0151]

And another dodgy win for United, that's what i'm worrying about. It's like every single ball falls for them every single game

[MerseysideBrum]

Isn't the whole premise of this thread that 70 points or approximately 1.84 points per game will get you top four? we won't average 2 ppg this season but you are wrong to suggest it is required to finish top four.

Okay by the same reasoning we're not averaging 1.84 points per game yet so it isn't exactly mad that we're currently 5th.

[TheShanklyGates]

Madness that we still haven't broken into the top 4 despite our form.

Just goes to show just how poor we were up until Christmas unfortunately.

[DutchRed]

Ease of fixtures. They've got Arsenal, City and Spurs in the next month at home, lose those 3 and it's -9 in this model.

Not a dig at Prof in any way, love the model, but it obviously has its weaknesses. Burnley at home is easier than Chelsea at home, and Newcastle away is much easier than, say, Arsenal away, yet they are rated similar. Again, this is not to say Prof's model is wrong, but it's not perfect either. You can't really have a perfect one anyway.

[Prof]

Not a dig at Prof in any way, love the model, but it obviously has its weaknesses. Burnley at home is easier than Chelsea at home, and Newcastle away is much easier than, say, Arsenal away, yet they are rated similar. Again, this is not to say Prof's model is wrong, but it's not perfect either. You can't really have a perfect one anyway.

I agree.  It makes lots of assumptions and uses possible point returns for each match.  Otherwise we'd use decimal values based on expectations of points returns.

[DanA]

There is 1 million ways to complicate this system which might make it marginally better. Now if someone want to create a similar thread with ELO values assigned to each club updated after each game then I'm all for it. It'd be a full time job or an extremely talented programmer a week or two to do it mind you.

Until then this is a pretty clean way of tracking things and if anything it's simplicity is it's strength. I honestly think it highlights the inaccuracy somewhat of the betting market, Liverpool looking pretty good value for top four betting markets.   

[SP]

Not a dig at Prof in any way, love the model, but it obviously has its weaknesses. Burnley at home is easier than Chelsea at home, and Newcastle away is much easier than, say, Arsenal away, yet they are rated similar. Again, this is not to say Prof's model is wrong, but it's not perfect either. You can't really have a perfect one anyway.

The fudge factors would massivelty complicate the Model. The overall effect of different difficulties of par fixtures does average out over the season. This version of the APLT is like Newtonian mechanics, broken in the details but good enough for simple usage. You don't want to invoke tensor calculus unnecessarily.

[FoolForPool]

Sometimes I want to go back to using my own model (a technical and advanced system of wishful thinking), life was so much simpler then...   :-(  Curse you Prof !!!!

Now it is not enough for my team to win, I have to bloody well calculate Par for all the other matches - Damn'it man, this is football not golf!!!! <sobs>

[Frizzo]

Another lucky goal from Henderson then 😊

[GregCharrua]

We'll make 3rd. Undefeated for the rest of the season. Just you wait. 

[Iska]

United have actually matched chelsea in the APLT since gw10, how the hell did that happen?!

This is genuinely horrifying.  Arsenal are also matching them if you start at week 11.

[johnny74]

United have actually matched chelsea in the APLT since gw10, how the hell did that happen?!

Indeed. They are well set-up to win games. They have a very successful, proven manager who seemingly prefers to win by playing uninspiring football, and playing people out of position. That sort of result pattern is no accident and next year they could potentially be title contenders. They certainly have a lot of manoeuvrability in terms of improving from where they are without even spending a penny.

Regarding that ten game bedding in period in the season....    ..as PoP explained during the Ferguson-Moyes transition United would play with the confidence of the predecessor for about ten games on memory and then the effect of the successor's methods would become more apparent. Perhaps this also happened with the Moyes-Van Gaal transition - for the first ten games United were experiencing a Moyes hangover. Add to this that Van Gaal was new to the PL, and is still learning its idiosyncracies and you have enormous scope for improvement I would guess?

[greyfade]

[Frizzo]

Indeed. They are well set-up to win games. They have a very successful, proven manager who seemingly prefers to win by playing uninspiring football, and playing people out of position. That sort of result pattern is no accident and next year they could potentially be title contenders. They certainly have a lot of manoeuvrability in terms of improving from where they are without even spending a penny.

Regarding that ten game bedding in period in the season....    ..as PoP explained during the Ferguson-Moyes transition United would play with the confidence of the predecessor for about ten games on memory and then the effect of the successor's methods would become more apparent. Perhaps this also happened with the Moyes-Van Gaal transition - for the first ten games United were experiencing a Moyes hangover. Add to this that Van Gaal was new to the PL, and is still learning its idiosyncracies and you have enormous scope for improvement I would guess?

I just think a huge part of it is they've been extremely lucky.

Off the top of my head i can think of half a dozen games where they've scraped a win from the oppositions terrible finishing and/or poor refereeing.

In the same way that Southampton grabbed lucky wins and are regressing to the mean, i think united will too.

[Nessy76]

I just think a huge part of it is they've been extremely lucky.

Off the top of my head i can think of half a dozen games where they've scraped a win from the oppositions terrible finishing and/or poor refereeing.

In the same way that Southampton grabbed lucky wins and are regressing to the mean, i think united will too.

Southampton's underlying numbers were always good, though. I think they are now struggling to finish. Pelle is finding that new strikers in the Premier League sometimes get a few months before someone works them out, and now seems to be struggling. Their squad is such that it's very hard for them to slot another goalscorer in when he's out of form, which is why they aren't doing as well as they were.

I predicted here long ago that February might be when they really dropped off, and so it's proved. It's going to be very hard for them from now on, but I don't think you can write them off just yet.

What's happening at Manchester United is a bit different. They are frequently being outplayed and not creating chances to score. Everything about football says this is wrong, you just can't keep playing that way and win many games, and the fact they only recorded their fourth away win of the season against Newcastle is the proof. Either they need to fix it (and by all accounts they were offering a little more punch than in recent weeks at St James' Park) or it will catch up with them.

But this thread isn't really about that, there's plenty of other places for that debate. What we see here is that they did in fact win at Newcastle and they have in fact gained 2 APLT points in doing so.

[SP]

I was looking to see what effect taking a current snapshot of the 12 par 1 fixtures as opposed to last seasons results. The only change is West Brom replace Everton. Which makes our run in look more difficult than everyone else's. Considering how this was supposed to be an unusual season, I expected a little more variance.

[Nessy76]

Latest update on this:

Team	Points	APLTpts	Max Pts	DAWH	Par pts	PPG	T(PPG)
Chelsea	63	+4	96	86	94	2.3	87
Man City	58	-10	88	78	80	2.1	80
Arsenal	54	-10	84	76	80	1.9	72
Man United	53	-15	83	73	75	1.9	72
Liverpool	51	-17	81	69	73	1.8	68
Southampton	49	-19	79	67	71	1.8	68
Tottenham	47	-20	80	66	70	1.7	65

[latortuga]

United winning games 1-0 under apparently fortuitous circumstances is hardly a new occurrence.  I remember under Ferguson they went on some ridiculous run of winning games 1-0 to take out the title one year.  I think we'll continue to see them do this all the way to end of the season and if we're going to take 4th we'll need to beat them to it not sit in hope that they're going to fall away or their luck runs out.

[Nessy76]

United winning games 1-0 under apparently fortuitous circumstances is hardly a new occurrence.  I remember under Ferguson they went on some ridiculous run of winning games 1-0 to take out the title one year.  I think we'll continue to see them do this all the way to end of the season and if we're going to take 4th we'll need to beat them to it not sit in hope that they're going to fall away or their luck runs out.

With Spurs and Southampton so close behind us, I don't think there's much chance of us letting up anyway. All of these sides will drop points before the end of the season, we just need to ensure we drop fewer than anybody else.

[Vork+The Knights of Good]

Indeed. They are well set-up to win games. They have a very successful, proven manager who seemingly prefers to win by playing uninspiring football, and playing people out of position. That sort of result pattern is no accident and next year they could potentially be title contenders. They certainly have a lot of manoeuvrability in terms of improving from where they are without even spending a penny.

Regarding that ten game bedding in period in the season....    ..as PoP explained during the Ferguson-Moyes transition United would play with the confidence of the predecessor for about ten games on memory and then the effect of the successor's methods would become more apparent. Perhaps this also happened with the Moyes-Van Gaal transition - for the first ten games United were experiencing a Moyes hangover. Add to this that Van Gaal was new to the PL, and is still learning its idiosyncracies and you have enormous scope for improvement I would guess?

United winning games 1-0 under apparently fortuitous circumstances is hardly a new occurrence.  I remember under Ferguson they went on some ridiculous run of winning games 1-0 to take out the title one year.  I think we'll continue to see them do this all the way to end of the season and if we're going to take 4th we'll need to beat them to it not sit in hope that they're going to fall away or their luck runs out.

They're nowhere near deserving of a top 4 spot. Their underlying numbers are largely mediocre. They're currently 7th in chances created, 8th in total shots, 6th in shots on target, and 6th in shots on target ratio. They average a full 2 shots per 90 fewer than the 4th placed side (us) and are actually closer in total shots per game to Crystal Palace in 15th than they are to us. When you look at those type of metrics there's a pretty clear delineation between the top 5 sides (Chelsea, City, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Southampton) and the rest. If they don't improve upon those numbers over the final ten games then I think they'll find it very hard to maintain the top 4. Thoughts of them winning the league next year are barely short of laughable. They're miles away from competing for the title and when you look at the age of their attackers I think stagnation/regression are more likely outcomes over the next 12 months than a massive leap.

It's hard to see them surviving their upcoming fixture list without a substantial improvement in their attacking output. Crazier things have happened, but if you were a betting man/woman, you'd be wise to put your money elsewhere.

[TSC]

They're nowhere near deserving of a top 4 spot. Their underlying numbers are largely mediocre. They're currently 7th in chances created, 8th in total shots, 6th in shots on target, and 6th in shots on target ratio. They average a full 2 shots per 90 fewer than the 4th placed side (us) and are actually closer in total shots per game to Crystal Palace in 15th than they are to us. When you look at those type of metrics there's a pretty clear delineation between the top 5 sides (Chelsea, City, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Southampton) and the rest. If they don't improve upon those numbers over the final ten games then I think they'll find it very hard to maintain the top 4. Thoughts of them winning the league next year are barely short of laughable. They're miles away from competing for the title and when you look at the age of their attackers I think stagnation/regression are more likely outcomes over the next 12 months than a massive leap.

It's hard to see them surviving their upcoming fixture list without a substantial improvement in their attacking output. Crazier things have happened, but if you were a betting man/woman, you'd be wise to put your money elsewhere.

Still wouldn't write the mancs off. 

[Vork+The Knights of Good]

I was just killing a few minutes looking at Objective Football and I noticed that Chelsea have a ridiculously low amount of games missed via injury this year. It's remarkable considering the number of games they've played across 4 competitions and perhaps telling in terms of their sustained performance. The site's table hasn't been updated to include this week's midweek fixtures yet, but thus far they've only missed 27 games due to injury. The next best side has missed 52 games. The league mean and median thru last weekend are 91.6 and 81, respectively. For comparison's sake, here are how the other sides in the APLT stack up:

City - 68
Arsenal - 187
United - 136
Liverpool - 127
Southampton - 100
Spurs - 54

I've no idea how much of that can be chalked up to luck or if certain sides have a demonstrated history of avoiding injury (I'd lean heavily towards the former), but I find it interesting that the one side lapping the field in the APLT has also had a nearly fully fit squad for the entirety of the campaign. If my assumption regarding luck is correct, then it seems like Arsenal have been massively unlucky this term and, to lesser extents, so have United, Liverpool, and Southampton. Conversely, City and Spurs can consider themselves fortunate, although nowhere near the level of Chelsea. I'd be curious to see how these compare to previous seasons.

[Vork+The Knights of Good]

Still wouldn't write the mancs off.

No way I'm writing them off with so few games remaining and their noses slightly in front, but their results are vastly outdistancing their performances. It's certainly possible they can continue that for another 10 games, but I wouldn't bet on it and it's in no way indicative of some sleeping giant ready to storm the league next year.

[Roger Federer]

No way I'm writing them off with so few games remaining and their noses slightly in front, but their results are vastly outdistancing their performances. It's certainly possible they can continue that for another 10 games, but I wouldn't bet on it and it's in no way indicative of some sleeping giant ready to storm the league next year.

Their results from game 10 or so, are pretty good and much better than their start to the season. Was there a shift in their underlying number around that time? Or have they looked more or less the same all season?

Where do you find this stuff, by the way?

[Vork+The Knights of Good]

Their results from game 10 or so, are pretty good and much better than their start to the season. Was there a shift in their underlying number around that time? Or have they looked more or less the same all season?

Where do you find this stuff, by the way?

I'm unaware of any vast improvement over the past 18 games, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. I'll try to look at that if I get some spare time this weekend. Just based off the eye test, though, they haven't been very impressive at any point.

There are a few sites where you can access variations of this data. Squawka and WhoScored are both good. One I really like is the blog I referenced above, Objective Football. They have a main table that lists data just like the PL table. It's sortable and regularly updated. Very handy.

http://objective-football.blogspot.com.es/2014/09/201415-main-table.html

[Hij]

Should be an interesting weekend for this table.

We get to see all the results before we play.

[Petadroli]

I'm unaware of any vast improvement over the past 18 games, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. I'll try to look at that if I get some spare time this weekend. Just based off the eye test, though, they haven't been very impressive at any point.

There are a few sites where you can access variations of this data. Squawka and WhoScored are both good. One I really like is the blog I referenced above, Objective Football. They have a main table that lists data just like the PL table. It's sortable and regularly updated. Very handy.

http://objective-football.blogspot.com.es/2014/09/201415-main-table.html

I've been looking for such a site for a long time. Thank you so much!

Those stats confirm that we are playing like a top 4 team. You can clearly see what the difference between ManUtd, Arsenal and Liverpool is: the PDO. ManUtd have the best PDO in the whole league, what translates into them scoring with a normal ratio but having a goalkeeper who saves way more shots than he should statistically be able to. They really are riding a hot goalkeeper.

[Prof]

They really are riding a hot goalkeeper.

Each to their own 

[Roger Federer]

A bit late, but cheers for the link Vork!

About De Gea. At what point do we conclude that he's just an exceptional keeper, and not running 'hot'? Him an Courtois seem to make 'impossible' saves just about every time I see them play.

[Iska]

A thing about De Gea is that a lot of his exceptional saves seem to happen low (at least going by the 3-0 against us, I don't see him much otherwise).  The saves against Sterling, and Balotelli's first good chance, came from him anticipating and doing the cricket-y thing where you kneel and extend a calf to make a yard-long barrier to block the ball, and the forward obligingly hitting it.  He did the same to Monreal on Monday only to have it tucked past him at waist-height.  For all I know all keepers do that, but I can't recall noticing it before.

Of course he then went and freakishly tipped Mario's second shot onto the bar, so he's clearly got *it* too.

[Gods_Left_Boot]

A bit late, but cheers for the link Vork!

About De Gea. At what point do we conclude that he's just an exceptional keeper, and not running 'hot'? Him an Courtois seem to make 'impossible' saves just about every time I see them play.

Exactly, I guess that it's because people still remember him being shaky in his first year. He's improved a lot since then, although even back then most of his struggles involved coming off his line, especially for crosses, which is not surprising considering how protected by the refs keepers are in Spain and in Italy compared to the PL. His shot stopping has always been top notch since he moved there.

[Petadroli]

A bit late, but cheers for the link Vork!

About De Gea. At what point do we conclude that he's just an exceptional keeper, and not running 'hot'? Him an Courtois seem to make 'impossible' saves just about every time I see them play.

A lot of that has to do with form though. He has been "in the zone" for most of the season. Last season with Moyes he had quite a few mistakes that costed United dearly. Just like some goalscorers have seasons where they score 25 and seasons where they score 15, goalkeepers sometimes have career seasons. Plus he is playing for a new contract, that might be a factor in his play too.

[ElstonGunn]

A bit late, but cheers for the link Vork!

About De Gea. At what point do we conclude that he's just an exceptional keeper, and not running 'hot'? Him an Courtois seem to make 'impossible' saves just about every time I see them play.

He's certainly an exceptional keeper, but the kind of Save% numbers he's putting up have not been sustainable by any goalkeeper, as far as I know. He's running "hot" (or whatever you want to call it) even for an exceptional goalkeeper.

[sminp]

A bit late, but cheers for the link Vork!

About De Gea. At what point do we conclude that he's just an exceptional keeper, and not running 'hot'? Him an Courtois seem to make 'impossible' saves just about every time I see them play.

Perhaps this isn't the thread for this discussion but De Gea only has Neuer and Courtois ahead of him as the best keepers around in my opinion