I don't know if it's possible, but is there a way to estimate an end date of our title aspirations from previous seasons. I know it's going to be subjective, and I know we all say that the title run was over in December in past seasons, but if you could use your judgment...
I dont think it's really possible, because no two people will ever agree on when it's over.
Also, are we using hindsight or not.
Eg, with the benefit of hindsight, the title was (theoretically) lost last season in Game 25 when we drew with Chelsea. If we'd won that day, and won all our remaining games, and if all other results had stayed the same, then we'd have been champions (on GD from Chelsea, with MU one point behind).
But that's far too artificial, no?
A bit more background on the seasons that we've been top after Christmas:
In 2002, we finished 7 points behind Arsenal.
Since we only dropped 5 points in our final 15 games, then - with the benefit of hindsight - we lost the title before that run-in. And it's certainly true that immediately before that fine finish, we'd had 1 win from 9 games.
However, at the start of the run-in, no-one would have ruled us out. After our Game 24, a 1-0 win at OT, we were 2 points behind MU, and level on games. We were behind Newcastle on GD only, though they had a game in hand. Crucially, though we didnt know it at the time, we were only 2 points ahead of Arsenal, who had 2 games in hand. Arsenal's relentless finish (15 wins and 1 draw from their remaining 16 games) meant that we were done for, and didnt know it.
So that year, not using hindsight, I'd say we were in contention all the way until we lost Game 36. We needed Arsenal to slip up a couple of times. We werent to know that they wouldnt.
In 1997, we kept in close touch with MU up to games 26 and 27. After 26 games, they were 1 point ahead. Since they drew their 27th game, we'd have been top if we'd won ours, but we drew too, and then lost the one after that. Our 4-3 with Newcastle threatened to put us back in contention. MU had lost their game that weekend, so we were back to 1 point behind. But instead of challenging, we just fell away. Only 3 more wins from the last 9 games.
And then there was 1991. Fergie might claim to have knocked us off our perch, but (in terms of rival managers), George Graham has a much better claim. 1989 was the dramatic one. But 1991 was the almost incredible one.
Liverpool had, arguably, their best ever start. 12 wins and 1 draw from the first 13 games, before drawing with Man City. Then, we lost to Arsenal. Was that 15th game the tipping point? Even after our great start, we were only 3 points ahead of Arsenal. Arsenal were unbeaten, with 11 wins and 4 draws, but had had a 2 point deduction. Arsenal then kept up the pressure; they lost only one league game all season. (Although they did draw 13. "Too many" to win the league we are often told).
But, it seemed, we were good enough to withstand the pressure. Kenny's last league game (a win over Everton) saw us regaining top spot. We had 3 points more than Arsenal, and were level on games. After he resigned, we lost our next 2 league games, one of which to Arsenal, and were done for. Like this season, we topped the table a few more times, but only when Arsenal had 2 games in hand.
So, IMHO, both 2002 and this year, are very credible challenges. By accident, we played first, and our opponents always had enough games in hand to overtake us. But we werent (without the benefit of hindsight) being unduly optimistic when we hoped that, at some stage, they'd drop points.
