First the monthly update to the current temp. graph.
No surprises – temperatures falling back to the long term trend line following the departure of the big El Nino.
Before I move on, a word on the meaning of a heading on a lot of my graphs
CO2 Atmospheric Physics Calcs - No Feedbacks (ECS=1)
Nothing magical – the IPCC (indeed everyone!) agree on the basic equation to calculate the rise in temp from a rise in CO2 – namely
∆T = (ECS) * (ln(C2/C1)) / ln(2))
where ∆T = Change in temperature, °C
ECS = Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity , °C /doubling
C1 = CO2 concentration (PPM) at time 1
C2 = CO2 concentration (PPM) at time 2
Feed that into a spread sheet with this years and the start years CO2 figures gives you the temperature rise.
It’s the ECS – the multiplying factor – that I disagree with. The IPCC say 1.5 <-> 4.5 with a mean of 3.
Exaggerated bollocks.
Anyways - especially for Tepid here are some slightly (
) longer term graphs than the 18 year pause.
Firstly, one goes back to post WW2 when CO2 began to move upwards significantly.
Looks close to no feedbacks to me.
This next one goes back to the start of temp records from Giss and Hadcrut – 1880. It then switches to satellite data from 1979 onwards.
Again, the tracking of ECS=1 as opposed to ECS=3 seems blatent.
To try to be fair, I’ve done the same graph as the one above but stayed with Giss/H4 (ground station) data. This now more straddles the ECS1 and ECS3 lines.
This illustrates one of the big bones of contention in the Global Warming saga - namely, the Urban Heat Island Effect. i.e. ground stations exhibit an illusory temperature rise by virtue of increasing populations around the sites of the thermometers.
One of the endless problems that really need sorting out.
220 years a long enough period?
Finally, the graph that (in large measure) started it all.
This was touted by Gavin Schmidt of the NASA Goddard Institute (GISS), Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia (HADCRUT), and Michael (hockey stick) Mann as the end of civilisation as we know it.
It (for thirty years) maps the 3X predictions and led to the ‘Large Positive Feedbacks’ nonsense.
It’s the only 30 year period to do so.
Except – of course – 1910-1940 – when there was virtually
NO CO2 RISE!Natural variation anyone?
Last post for a while - you're problably glad to hear! Spending far too much time on it of late. Will try and update the main graph at the end of Feb
