Numerous questions will be present in this game on Wednesday. Which Liverpool will turn up? What personnel changes will be made? Who will cover for Enrique? Will we play 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1? Will we even go 3 at the back again? If Sunderland sit deep, will we score or will we dominate but concede? It’ll be a tough game, for a number of reasons – the opposition, the timing of the game, injuries, players sold, form, etc. The biggest danger is that it becomes another Villa game – weaker opposition on paper that defends stoutly and hits us on the break against the run of play. Or it could be another Fulham/QPR – players who are not playing to their potential who concede one goal early and collapse for the rest of the game. There are no easy predictions. What we might be able to guess, though, is how the game will go.
Sunderland’s system – Sunderland are a traditional O’Neill team. Where once O’Neill was actually an innovative systems manager to a small extent (his 3-5-2 with Celtic, with Didier Agathe and Alan Thompson on each wing, was as fluid an attacking system as any around), these days he basically plays a more or less “British” game – flat back four, 4 or 5 in midfield, 1 or 2 up front, usually stacked in a “1-1” set-up. This Sunderland team plays deep, hits on the break, usually through the wings, with crosses as the main delivery of the final ball. They are fairly balanced defensively, although they can get pulled to one side against teams that are strong on one side of the field. If Suarez fancies a side to play from against Sunderland, expect a lot of space to be created on the opposite side. Without Enrique though, the chances to score from a back post run are reduced, and we might well be relying on a piece of magic and/or a set-piece goal to get something on the board.
Their system plays fairly deep in the defensive third, and as we know, this can create problems for our finishing. The two central defenders, likely Cuellar and Bramble, will sit tight, central and create defensive depth. Colback in front of them will patrol the space ahead of the back four, with Larsson possibly doing double duties as a defensive mid getting forward, although they might try to plug the middle of the field by restricting these two players to defence-only tasks. There might be little space to play in between the lines, which might force Suarez wider, leaving us with no real central runs, unless Gerrard (if he plays) makes some penetrating movements as a 3rd attacker. On the other hand, Colback can go wandering sometimes, and the Sunderland back two might actually be exposed if they don’t show tactical discipline. For this reason, we might see Larsson restrained in his positional tasks, which on one hand will make the main area condensed (especially Zone 14) – on the other hand, it will detract from their attacking transitions and make their attacks predictable. We will probably see the same tactics employed by Villa and Stoke, with the entry pass being a direct ball through the central channel to two forwards on the counter. Without beating the Back Three drum, this is a game where at the very least we might have to show a bit more central defensive tightness; alternatively, we can try to cut the long ball off at source, and play Henderson in midfield with the job of pressing high, meaning Gerrard and Lucas in defensive midfield. This seems unlikely, but if Rodgers is learning as he goes, he’ll know that there are certain midfield combinations that don’t work against certain opposition, and this game is one game which should be looked at from this point of view.
Liverpool’s System – In all likelihood, the system will be the same as against QPR – 4-3-3 to start with, and the only big changes being who comes in for Enrique. Common sense says Wisdom on the right and Johnson shifting to the left. Downing can be relied upon to back Wisdom up, and Sterling is not afraid to put the miles in tracking back. Down the flanks we should be covered well. It is important though, that Downing stay on the right, as he is playing well, but more importantly, he is seeing the kinds of runs Suarez makes and is delivering the ball to him in areas that Suarez likes to move into. The second goal against QPR is a fine example of Downing realizing where Suarez will make a run, and playing a perfectly weighted pass into his path before moving off the pass to support. Getting anyone on the same wavelength as Suarez is always a good thing. We might see a Joe Cole appearance if there’s a shop window factor, but the front three should pick itself – Sterling, Suarez, Downing – and the back four should be relatively predictable depending on the replacement for Enrique. Central midfield is harder to call though, as Henderson should start, if he’s feeling well enough, although there might be a case for resting Lucas. There is a physical case for resting Gerrard, but he is playing very well the last few games and it would be smart to keep him involved for that fact alone. He seems to be choosing the frequency of his explosive runs into the box, which is the main concern with a player of his power. As long as he doesn’t overdo the attacking sprints, he should be good to play at least 60 minutes in a more conservative midfield position.
It is important that whoever plays the holding midfield role drops very conservatively into the space between the back two when Sunderland win the ball. Fletcher and Sessegnon can to a lot of damage if given space, much like Benteke and Weimann for Villa, with maybe not as much physical power (although Fletcher is no slouch). Sunderland are not prolific shot-takers, though, and average 4 shots on target per game. If we can keep them to below that amount, we should be looking at a clean sheet again. If we let them get higher than their average, though, we might be seeing a repeat of Villa and Stoke, and this would be bad for morale all-round, as the chances are that the shots will come from the same types of play that we’ve been vulnerable to against teams similar to Sunderland. Thankfully, though, we have a good record at home in general (4-3-3), although not brilliant by any means. We are strong enough at home though, to be confident of a solid win against Sunderland, but a lot will depend on how we play the game out – do we adjust to Sunderland’s strengths, or do we play to our own and hope our weaknesses don’t catch up with us? Sunderland, though, have only won 2 away games all season, so the signs are positive for a good result for us.
Set-Pieces – Set-pieces will be an important aspect of this game. Surprisingly, we are doing quite well on corners this season. We’ve scored 8 goals from set-pieces this season, which is a healthy return in 20 games. Conversely, Sunderland are surprisingly weak at defending set-pieces, particularly for a Martin O’Neill team. It will be important for us to maximize our corners, and get a little bit of variety and a lot of good services in, especially to Skrtel and Agger on corner kicks. Defensively, it would be wise to make and tactical fouls on Sunderland players as close to the halfway line as possible, as McClean is a real danger from direct free kicks, and if Reina doesn’t set the wall properly, or isn’t on his game, this might be Sunderland’s best chance of getting a goal on the board. Overall, if we can work a good early spell of pressure and score from it, and then sustain the pressure and add to the score, the game should go like QPR and Fulham. Sunderland will probably get dragged towards the relegation spots after Christmas, and they are definitely a team we should be looking to beat rather than just compete against. There are a few factors to take into consideration (Enrique replacement, how we cope with that, and structure of the midfield), but all in all, this is a game we should look to be winning, with a tight scoreline (2-0 or 2-1). It could be more, but Villa blip aside, it is unlikely to be a loss.
