Topic: Results Comparison 2016/17

[JP-65]

Updated season to go:

Chelsea's 28 points only exceeded once in the prior 3 seasons.

[TepidT2O]

Looking at that, we look very very solid for a top four finish.

That would be the bare minimum we should take out of the season, but, being back in the champions league is very important for attracting the best players..

[vallapureddy]

Still we are doing better comparatively from last season and 2014 season.

[JP-65]

Updated top 8...Chelsea continue to look a threat, what an easy schedule City & Everton have had so far!

[JP-65]

With Chelsea on 31 points, and ourselves & City with 30, you have to go back to 2002-3 to find 3 teams with 30+ points after 13 matches (Arsenal ended up winning it easily, the season they went unbeaten & all 3 ended up in the top 3 slots).

Even more unusual though is that the 4th place team is so close even with 3 with such strong starts.

[JP-65]

Updated season to go

[King Klopp.]

With Chelsea on 31 points, and ourselves & City with 30, you have to go back to 2002-3 to find 3 teams with 30+ points after 13 matches (Arsenal ended up winning it easily, the season they went unbeaten & all 3 ended up in the top 3 slots).

Even more unusual though is that the 4th place team is so close even with 3 with such strong starts.

It's standard really. Any time we are able to be bloody good everyone else becomes good 

[vallapureddy]

Comparing with 13/14 season we took 12 points in the next 6 games. After that the next 15 games out of 45 we got around 41 points. We need to replicate that to be in contention this season.

[sms1986]

Hope nobody minds me putting this here, but I decided to have a look at where we were after fourteen games in the last ten seasons. In bold are parts where we did better than we are doing this season so far.

2015/16 - W6 D5 L3 GF18 GA15 23/42 points, sixth place
2014/15 - W6 D2 L6 GF19 GA19 20/42 points, eighth place
2013/14 - W8 D3 L3 GF30 GA17 27/42 points, fourth place
2012/13 - W3 D7 L4 GF18 GA18 16/42 points, twelfth place
2011/12 - W6 D5 L3 GF17 GA13 23/42 points, seventh place
2010/11 - W5 D4 L5 GF16 GA17 19/42 points, ninth place
2009/10 - W7 D2 L5 GF31 GA20 23/42 points, fifth place
2008/09 - W10 D3 L1 GF21 GA8 33/42 points, second place
2007/08 - W8 D6 L0 GF26 GA6 30/42 points, fourth place
2006/07 - W6 D3 L5 GF15 GA15 21/42 points, ninth place

The overall average of these seasons is -

 6.5 victories (we have 9 so far, above average)
 4 draws (we have 3, below average)
 3.8 losses (we have 2, above average)

 21.1 goals for (we have 35, above average)
 14.8 goals against (we have 18, below average)
 
 23.5 points (we have 30, above average)
 6th place in the table (we're second, above average)

[BassTunedToRed]

Hope nobody minds me putting this here, but I decided to have a look at where we were after fourteen games in the last ten seasons.

We were about fifteen minutes away from having our best start after 14 games in the PL era. Bloody collapse at Bournemouth scuppered that though!

[El Lobo]

Comparing with 13/14 season we took 12 points in the next 6 games. After that the next 15 games out of 45 we got around 41 points. We need to replicate that to be in contention this season.

Good to know.

Could you let me know six random numbers I can use which are guaranteed to be winning lottery numbers this week?

[Fluke]

Good to know.

Could you let me know six random numbers I can use which are guaranteed to be winning lottery numbers this week?

Would you be happier if they wrote "imo" at the end?

[El Lobo]

Would you be happier if they wrote "imo" at the end?

Well it'd make sense wouldn't it

At the moment we're on for 80+ points, and thats with a really tough start. There's absolutely nothing to suggest we need to go on some insane run to have a chance. We've seen numerous teams already looking like 'they'll run away with it' and then dropped right off, it happens.

[Fluke]

Well it'd make sense wouldn't it

At the moment we're on for 80+ points, and thats with a really tough start. There's absolutely nothing to suggest we need to go on some insane run to have a chance. We've seen numerous teams already looking like 'they'll run away with it' and then dropped right off, it happens.

I agree with you!  I doubt Chelsea go unbeaten to the end of the season.

I just think that when someone posts something, we can probably assume they are just sharing their opinion, rather than make fun of them for claiming to be an Oracle or something [emoji14]

[JP-65]

Updated Top 8 table:

Spurs/Chelsea & United have played all their 1st half matches.

Still LFC & Chelsea dominating this table

[vallapureddy]

Good to know.

Could you let me know six random numbers I can use which are guaranteed to be winning lottery numbers this week?

wish I could.. Contention in my dictionary doesn't mean we are going to win it for sure.

[JP-65]

Updated season-to-go:

Very strong performance from Chelsea so far.
United out of the title race.
Looks like 88 point area required to win it.

[xRedmanLFCx]

Sorry I'm new to this thread, where does the 88 point forecast come from? Cheers

[JP-65]

Sorry I'm new to this thread, where does the 88 point forecast come from? Cheers

My best judgement based on my database of 20 seasons of match history.

[JP-65]

Updated top 8 table:

[JP-65]

Season-to-go

[campioni]

Updated top 8 table:

That's an incredible record we've got against the top sides so far this season, especially considering 4 of the 6 games have been away.

Arsenal 3 points behind us in the table but their record in the top 8 table is shite. Flat track bullies.

[JP-65]

That's an incredible record we've got against the top sides so far this season, especially considering 4 of the 6 games have been away.

Arsenal 3 points behind us in the table but their record in the top 8 table is shite. Flat track bullies.

Chelsea, City, Arsenal & Spurs have only lost to teams in this table.  United have lost to 1 team not in this table.  We have lost to 2!

[johnny74]

Updated season-to-go:

Very strong performance from Chelsea so far.
United out of the title race.
Looks like 88 point area required to win it.

Looking at that it seems that a 2.45ppg run of form from here on in has happened only once (Man City 2013/14). So looking at this season you'd expect that most of those teams would fall far short of the 88pt line. In fact you'd assume that only Chelsea would get close to it?

So anyone that can get close to 2.45ppg probably has second place sewn up? Assuming that Chelsea carry on and hit the 90pts mark.

[vallapureddy]

Chelsea yet to play at Goodison, Anfield, Old Traford, Spurs in the 2nd half of the season. Points in these 4 games will define their title challenge. Also, Chelsea, Arsenal, Man Utd yet need to play at Spurs where they are still unbeaten at home against big teams.

[JP-65]

Looking at that it seems that a 2.45ppg run of form from here on in has happened only once (Man City 2013/14). So looking at this season you'd expect that most of those teams would fall far short of the 88pt line. In fact you'd assume that only Chelsea would get close to it?

So anyone that can get close to 2.45ppg probably has second place sewn up? Assuming that Chelsea carry on and hit the 90pts mark.

It's highly likely that only 1 team will perform to a level around 2.45 ppg, whichever team does it will win the league.  (this level was more prevalent when the top teams were stronger in the Rafa era)

Chelsea is in strong position to win as they don't need to do anything extraordinary to get to 87/88/89/90 point area.

[JP-65]

 

Chelsea, City, Arsenal & Spurs have only lost to teams in this table.  United have lost to 1 team not in this table.  We have lost to 2!

Ollie Kay used this data in a Times article today, we have some good lurkers here 

[Hunts Cross]

Chelsea, City, Arsenal & Spurs have only lost to teams in this table.  United have lost to 1 team not in this table.  We have lost to 2!

We have lost to two? We have not lost any buthve drawn two, or I misunderstand, JP.

[dudleyred]

We have lost to two? We have not lost any buthve drawn two, or I misunderstand, JP.

Think he means we have lost to two teams outside of this group

Utd have lost to one outside of the group

Whereas the rest have only lost to the big boys

I guess from that we're indicating our performance against "lesser" opposition will be what costs us if anything

[thejbs]

Chelsea, City, Arsenal & Spurs have only lost to teams in this table.  United have lost to 1 team not in this table.  We have lost to 2!

Is that not a good thing?  Dropping points to top teams gives a bigger swing, surely?  eg. Losing to Chelsea is a 6 point swing.

[mabbympb]

Is that not a good thing?  Dropping points to top teams gives a bigger swing, surely?  eg. Losing to Chelsea is a 6 point swing.

No it is not good. In the year Man Utd beat us to the title they gained 58 from 60 points against the bottom 10 teams. That leaves them needing 1.55 ppg to win the title against the 9 teams that make up the top 10 (28 points). That is how you win the league.

If you look at the top 8 table above, we have 14 points from 6 games. That would leave us needing 14 points from 12 matches, if we had beat every team in the bottom 10 twice, in order to achieve 88 points.

[redk84]

It's all relative tho....if we don't do as well against the weaker teams but better than United in your example^ against the top teams it doesn't matter. As long as the overall ppg is good enough

We need to go on another run at some point this season dropping very few points and hope Chelsea don't

[campioni]

Chelsea lost to us and Arsenal. If instead they had lost to Hull and Everton and beat us and Arsenal they would be on the same points total but we would be three points worse off. Their gap at the top would be even bigger.

[PoetryInMotion]

There are three results you have to bring into the picture. These are the 'mantras' that a title winning team would have.

Losing is never a good result. To a top 10 or a bottom 10 team. Losing to a rival is very bad for a title chasing team.
Drawing to a rival is not a bad result. Drawing to a few Top 10 teams is okay.
Winning the maximum games against bottom 10 sides is good. Ideally, a team has to  get maximum points out of the bottom 10 teams simply because they are the easiest ones. 

We have the following points for each category so far

Against current top 10

15 points in 8 games

Against current bottom 10

22 points in 9 games

If we have 90 points as the bench mark for the title, the target should be 50 points against bottom half and 40 points against top half based on the pattern we have shown in the first half of the season (different to the Ferguson's sides mentioned above). You would like it to be as close to a 55/35 split usually, but we've already dropped 5 points to bottom half sides, so we would have to take a different route.

That would mean we need

1) 25 points from 10 games against top half sides (we can afford a draw and a loss. Since we're playing most of the top sides at home, we could actually manage to avoid getting beaten to a rival which would be good).
2) 28 points from 11 games against bottom half sides (we can afford a draw and a loss).

[JP-65]

1 match left in the 1st half of PL Top 8 table; LFC still lead from Chelsea, well ahead of all the rest

[Jack Slater]

This is the 36th Season of 3 points for a win.

This is only the 5th of those seasons in which we have reached 40 points after 18 (or fewer) games.

In 2005/06 (finished 3rd with 82 points) and 1985/86 (champions), we also had exactly 40 points after 18.

In 1987/88, we had 44 points after 18 games (and finished in first, with 90 points; 86 from the first 38 games).

In 1990/91, we had 45 points after 18 games (and finished in second, with 76 points).

[TepidT2O]

Seems like we are a shoe in for top four atleast....which is an important step

[JP-65]

Tough league this year, updated season to go

[JP-65]

Top 8 table for the completed half season 

[JP-65]

Top 6 table....still looks good