Author Topic: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15 (Read 46821 times)

zabadoh · « **on:** August 20, 2014, 06:59:30 pm »

JP-65 hasn't poked his head out of his hole yet, so I guess I'll start for this season:

The goal is to chart our progress against our results from equivalent matches last season against this season's results, e.g. Spurs (away) 2013-14 vs Spurs (away) 2014-15.

It's a crude effort to chart our progress while adjusting for changes in the league schedule.

Admittedly, this may be difficult to watch after a very good season for us last year, i.e. staying even would be a good thing.

-12 points and -23 Equivalent Goal Differential

DATE	OPPONENT	LAST SEASON	THIS SEASON	DIFF (PTS, GS, GA, GD)
--------	-------------------	-------------	----------------------	------------------------------
17 Aug	Southampton (H)	L0-1	W2-1	(+3,+2,0,+2)
25 Aug	Man City (A)	L2-1	L3-1	(0,0,+1,-1)
31 Aug	Tottenham (A)	W0-5	W0-3	(0,-2,0,-2)
13 Sep	Aston Villa (H)	D2-2	L0-1	(-1,-2,-1,-1)
20 Sep	West Ham (A)	W1-2	L3-1	(-3,-1,+2,-3)
27 Sep	Everton (H)	W4-0	D1-1	(-2,-3,+1,-4)
04 Oct	West Brom (H)	W4-1	W2-1	(0,-2,0,-2)
19 Oct	QPR* (A)	W3-6	W2-3	(0,-3,-1,-2)
25 Oct	Hull City (H)	W2-0	D0-0	(-2,-2,0,-2)
01 Nov	Newcastle (A)	D2-2	L1-0	(-1,-2,+1,-1)
08 Nov	Chelsea (H)	L2-0	L1-2	(0,+1,0,+1)
23 Nov	Crystal Palace (A)	D3-3	L3-1	(-1,-2,0,-2)
29 Nov	Stoke City (H)	W1-0	W1-0	(0,0,0,0)
02 Dec	Leicester City* (A)	W2-3	W1-3	(0,0,-1,+1)
06 Dec	Sunderland (H)	W2-1	D0-0	(-2,-2,-1,-1)
13 Dec	Man Utd (A)	W0-3	L3-0	(-3,-3,+3,-6)
20 Dec	Arsenal (H)	W5-1	D2-2	(,,,)
26 Dec	Burnley* (A)	W2-3	W0-1	(,,,)
28 Dec	Swansea (H)	W4-3	W4-1	(,,,)
01 Jan	Leicester City* (H)	W5-1	D2-2	(,,,)
10 Jan	Sunderland (A)	W1-3	W0-1	(,,,)
17 Jan	Aston Villa (A)	W1-0	W0-2	(,,,)
31 Jan	West Ham (H)	W4-1	W2-0	(,,,)
07 Feb	Everton (A)	D3-3	D0-0	(,,,)
10 Feb	Tottenham (H)	W4-0	W3-2	(,,,)
21 Feb	Southampton (A)	W0-3	W0-2	(,,,)
28 Feb	Man City (H)	W3-2	W2-1	(,,,)
03 Mar	Burnley* (H)	W4-0	W2-0	(,,,)
14 Mar	Swansea (A)	D2-2	W0-1	(,,,)
21 Mar	Man Utd (H)	W1-0	L1-2	(,,,)
04 Apr	Arsenal (A)	L0-2		(,,,)
11 Apr	Newcastle (H)	W2-1		(,,,)
18 Apr	Hull City (A)	L3-1		(,,,)
25 Apr	West Brom (A)	D1-1		(,,,)
02 May	QPR* (H)	W3-1		(,,,)
09 May	Chelsea (A)	L2-1		(,,,)
16 May	Crystal Palace (H)	W3-1		(,,,)
24 May	Stoke City (A)	W3-5		(,,,)

*Equivalent promoted sides:
Norwich City == Leicester City
Fulham == Burnley
Cardiff City == QPR

Brian Blessed · « **Reply #1 on:** August 20, 2014, 08:04:34 pm »

Thanks for starting this. Hopefully all is well with JP.

Floydy · « **Reply #2 on:** August 20, 2014, 08:46:10 pm »

yes get the fuck in, if we draw with City on Monday that means we will finish this season on 88 points. Champions I tell ya.

rickardinho1 · « **Reply #3 on:** August 23, 2014, 07:08:59 am »

Nice to see we're already 3 up on last season. Loving the look of our December-March fixtures if last seasons results are anything to go by... I suppose we can expect 19 straight games without a loss including 16 wins over that period

jckliew · « **Reply #4 on:** August 23, 2014, 08:31:54 am »

Methinks we won 2-1,not 2-0?

So GA should be 1 and GD should be 1

helmboy_nige · « **Reply #5 on:** August 23, 2014, 09:49:17 am »

Quote from: jckliew on August 23, 2014, 08:31:54 am

Methinks we won 2-1,not 2-0?

So GA should be 1 and GD should be 1

It's a comparison with last season.

Last season against southampton we lost 1-0 so our GD was -2. This season we won 2-1 so our GD is +1, which is an improvement of +2.

myrlas · « **Reply #6 on:** August 24, 2014, 02:39:20 pm »

Good effort.

Pity JP seems to have disappeared from the forum and won't produce his normal quality updates. I wonder if someone knows him and could get hold of his models so other could continue the job he started?

I mean getting updates on all the teams, not just Liverpool.

fudge · « **Reply #7 on:** August 25, 2014, 12:15:49 am »

I think I look forwards to this more than the games

zabadoh · « **Reply #8 on:** August 25, 2014, 12:48:55 am »

Come to think of it, Jack Slater disappeared around the same time around mid-May. Weird coincidence.

DyingAtheist · « **Reply #9 on:** August 25, 2014, 02:09:24 am »

Just to be really picky, I feel the win should be in green with losses in red or something. I was blindsided for a second! Either way, great to see this again and ta for putting the work in!

rickardinho1 · « **Reply #10 on:** August 25, 2014, 04:13:26 am »

Quote from: helmboy_nige on August 23, 2014, 09:49:17 am

It's a comparison with last season.

Last season against southampton we lost 1-0 so our GD was -1. This season we won 2-1 so our GD is +1, which is an improvement of +2.

Sorted

By the looks of things I'd say we have a free swing of the bat here. All the pressure is on City to deliver, even a draw is a bad result for them knowing that Anfield awaits later in the season.

Deo · « **Reply #11 on:** August 25, 2014, 01:50:19 pm »

So, Anthony asked me to post my comparisons table from last season for this one. I'll post it here then.

Comparing this season's results with last season's, so far (click or right-click -> Open in new tab for larger size):

Relegated vs Promoted sides and how they were replaced on the previous table:

Also, Goal differences are compared to how much we scored/conceded vs that team. A positive value means we scored more or conceded less, negative for the other way around.

---

Premier League mini Table. Arguably, The top teams in the EPL this season will be United, Chelsea, City, Arsenal, Spurs, Liverpool and Everton.

This a comparison of last season's Mini Table with this ones:

Anthony · « **Reply #12 on:** August 25, 2014, 02:11:00 pm »

Thanks Deo - Good Job!

Smudgester · « **Reply #13 on:** August 25, 2014, 02:16:17 pm »

so how does this work in relation to the 3 relegated teams ?

Deo · « **Reply #14 on:** August 25, 2014, 02:26:10 pm »

Quote from: Anthony on August 25, 2014, 02:11:00 pm

Thanks Deo - Good Job!

No problem.

Quote from: Smudgester on August 25, 2014, 02:16:17 pm

so how does this work in relation to the 3 relegated teams ?

Cardiff 13/14 gets replaced by QPR 14/15, Norwich 13/14 by Lecsiter 14/15 and Fulham 13/14 by Burnley 14/15.

laximaginationzzz · « **Reply #15 on:** August 25, 2014, 10:39:53 pm »

Let's get this thread updated for a little perspective

Deo · « **Reply #16 on:** August 25, 2014, 11:15:21 pm »

Done. Updated my post.

zabadoh · « **Reply #17 on:** August 26, 2014, 02:47:29 am »

Same result from the equivalent match last season

We're still 3 points up from last season. Yay.

OP updated.

Next week will be tough to top last season's 0-5 victory at WHL. Will be happy with 3 points any which way we can.

How are the rest of the expected top 7 doing against their equivalent matches last season?

Man City +0 pts, +1 GD
Everton -2 pts, -3 GD
Arsenal +1 pts, +2 GD
Man Utd +1 pts, +0 GD
Chelsea +2 pts, +2 GD
Spurs +3 pts, +6 GD

laximaginationzzz · « **Reply #18 on:** August 26, 2014, 09:25:31 am »

Quote from: zabadoh on August 26, 2014, 02:47:29 am

Same result from the equivalent match last season

We're still 3 points up from last season. Yay.

OP updated.

Next week will be tough to top last season's 0-5 victory at WHL. Will be happy with 3 points any which way we can.

How are the rest of the expected top 7 doing against their equivalent matches last season?

Man City +0 pts, +1 GD
Everton -2 pts, -3 GD
Arsenal +1 pts, +2 GD
Man Utd +1 pts, +0 GD
Chelsea +2 pts, +2 GD
Spurs +3 pts, +6 GD

Cheers for updating

Just a thought in the OP wouldn't it be better to have the overall tally in the last column?

Also don't think the Mancs are +1 on their fixtures - they won both corresponding fixtures last season

BassTunedToRed · « **Reply #19 on:** August 26, 2014, 11:51:27 am »

If anyone wants to see how the whole of the PL are doing on this basis, then Simon Gleave has a workbook going:

http://public.tableausoftware.com/profile/scoreboardjournalism#!/vizhome/ISGPremierLeague20132014/Tableandmodels

VERY early days of course, but at present only Villa have made more of an improvement than us. Plus United are 5 points down, which is nice ;-)

Brian Blessed · « **Reply #20 on:** August 26, 2014, 02:56:36 pm »

Quote from: zabadoh on August 26, 2014, 02:47:29 am

Same result from the equivalent match last season

We're still 3 points up from last season. Yay.

OP updated.

Next week will be tough to top last season's 0-5 victory at WHL. Will be happy with 3 points any which way we can.

How are the rest of the expected top 7 doing against their equivalent matches last season?

Man City +0 pts, +1 GD
Everton -2 pts, -3 GD
Arsenal +1 pts, +2 GD
Man Utd +1 pts, +0 GD
Chelsea +2 pts, +2 GD
Spurs +3 pts, +6 GD

Manchester Untied are minus 5, are they not?

Callaghan. · « **Reply #21 on:** August 26, 2014, 03:44:09 pm »

Quote from: Deo on August 25, 2014, 01:50:19 pm

Thanks, Deo. Good work. I'll always look out for these.

By the way, I think you need to update the year on the two tables at the bottom.

zabadoh · « **Reply #22 on:** August 26, 2014, 03:50:28 pm »

Quote from: Impolite King Brian Blessed on August 26, 2014, 02:56:36 pm

Manchester Untied are minus 5, are they not?

Quote from: laximaginationzzz on August 26, 2014, 09:25:31 am

Also don't think the Mancs are +1 on their fixtures - they won both corresponding fixtures last season

#$!%ing data sources... Yes, Untied are -5 pts, -2 GD

Thanks for the link, BTTR!

Looks like ScoreboardJournalism is keeping projected points based on combined prior and current season results:

http://public.tableausoftware.com/profile/scoreboardjournalism#!/vizhome/SCOREPremierLeague20142015/Dashboard1

Deo · « **Reply #23 on:** August 26, 2014, 03:51:53 pm »

Quote from: Callaghan. on August 26, 2014, 03:44:09 pm

Thanks, Deo. Good work. I'll always look out for these.

By the way, I think you need to update the year on the two tables at the bottom.

Yeah, thanks for spotting that!

Jack Slater · « **Reply #24 on:** August 28, 2014, 08:37:37 pm »

Quote from: zabadoh on August 25, 2014, 12:48:55 am

Come to think of it, Jack Slater disappeared around the same time around mid-May. Weird coincidence.

I'm around, and I aint done nothing to JP

Nice one for starting the thread. Can't say I'm overly optimistic for this season, but will be checking in each game to see if I'm wrong.

zabadoh · « **Reply #25 on:** August 30, 2014, 02:52:14 pm »

After today's result, Man Untied are now -7 pts, -4 GD compared to last season's results

That's an impressive total after 3 matches.

BassTunedToRed · « **Reply #26 on:** August 31, 2014, 05:51:59 pm »

Still three points up on last season after today's excellent result.

87 here we come! ;-)

Deo · « **Reply #27 on:** August 31, 2014, 06:38:35 pm »

And we can go +5 if we beat Villa next week.

Brian Blessed · « **Reply #28 on:** August 31, 2014, 06:44:45 pm »

Ten point swing on the Mancs already. So about sixty total over the last 41 league games.

zabadoh · « **Reply #29 on:** September 1, 2014, 08:57:41 am »

So we've scored one less goal over last season's equivalent matches, but we're up 3 points. Nothing to crow or cry about yet as it's only 3 matches in. In summary, we're +3 pts, -1 GD

Pocchetino has Spurs at +3 pts, +8 GD, which has been a balanced improvement of both +4 GF and -4 GA

Chelsea are also off to an impressive +start at +5 pts, +8 GD and have tied us for the lead in projected points.

Everton are almost in the exact opposite direction at -5 pts, -7 GD

Arsenal are holding steady, more or less, at -1 pts, +0 GD

Man City are -3 pts, -1 GD, after today's loss to Stoke

Roger Federer · « **Reply #30 on:** September 1, 2014, 09:59:43 am »

Is JP and @simongleave one and the same? That looks identical to what JP used to post.

Shame he isn't around, but thank you to all the rest in here. Always come back to this thread during the season, and just posting here to find it easier.

BassTunedToRed · « **Reply #31 on:** September 1, 2014, 10:37:41 am »

Quote from: Roger Federer on September 1, 2014, 09:59:43 am

Is JP and @simongleave one and the same? That looks identical to what JP used to post.

Shame he isn't around, but thank you to all the rest in here. Always come back to this thread during the season, and just posting here to find it easier.

No, they're not the same but I think they use the same programme to generate the tables.

I saw JP say on Twitter that he's recently moved so I assume he's too snowed under for this.

Deo · « **Reply #32 on:** September 2, 2014, 02:15:21 pm »

Updated my table too:

Quote from: Deo on August 25, 2014, 01:50:19 pm

So, Anthony asked me to post my comparisons table from last season for this one. I'll post it here then.

Comparing this season's results with last season's, so far (click or right-click -> Open in new tab for larger size):

Relegated vs Promoted sides and how they were replaced on the previous table:

Also, Goal differences are compared to how much we scored/conceded vs that team. A positive value means we scored more or conceded less, negative for the other way around.

---

Premier League mini Table. Arguably, The top teams in the EPL this season will be United, Chelsea, City, Arsenal, Spurs, Liverpool and Everton.

This a comparison of last season's Mini Table with this ones:

Brian Blessed · « **Reply #33 on:** September 2, 2014, 04:00:54 pm »

Thanks Deo. Shouldn;t the Spurs game in the 14/15 column be green?

Deo · « **Reply #34 on:** September 2, 2014, 06:56:34 pm »

Oh, yeah, it should, sorry. I always make mistakes like this, guess must have clicked it along with the pts column...

EDIT: Fixed!

zabadoh · « **Reply #35 on:** September 14, 2014, 12:18:00 am »

Updated the OP, and I thought it might be fun to start graphing our progress through the weeks:

The starting point for the graph, League Week 0, is the table at the end of last season. After each week, I add the differential in the equivalent points, you get the idea...

It's more illustrative than saying "Liverpool are +2, Chelsea are +5, City are -3" and so on.

p.s. Man Utd play tomorrow so they don't have a datapoint yet.

p.s.s. SCoRe haven't updated their chart yet and probably won't until Monday.

zabadoh · « **Reply #36 on:** September 18, 2014, 01:19:28 am »

SCoRe's Comparison Chart

Next weekend's equivalent results from last season:
Aston Villa 1 – 2 Arsenal
West Ham United 1 – 2 Liverpool
Leicester City(Norwich City) 0 - 1 Man Utd
Tottenham Hotspur 1 – 1 West Bromwich Albion
Manchester City 0 – 1 Chelsea
Everton 2 – 3 Crystal Palace

zabadoh · « **Reply #37 on:** September 22, 2014, 08:59:02 am »

Believe it or not, our result this weekend wasn't entirely bad with City taking 2 points off Chelsea's equivalent win last season.

The title race is looking very tight and we're right in it, despite having -5 Equivalent GD from last season.
The average loss of one goal a game may be a more worrying statistic over the entire season if the trend continues.

Surprisingly, we're only -1 point from our equivalent results, largely thanks to overturning the equivalent Southampton loss from last season. That just emphasizes how the three points from winning overcomes more than just one bad result.

United are just included for amusement at this point...

zabadoh · « **Reply #38 on:** September 28, 2014, 03:49:50 pm »

We're sliding back down towards the Arsenal/Everton/Spurs chase pack

zabadoh · « **Reply #39 on:** September 30, 2014, 05:20:53 pm »

This week's SCoRe chart below

Southampton have overtaken ManU for 7th just by holding steady...

We're entering a 5 league game stretch where last season we went 4W-1D and scored 18 goals and allowed 9 goals.

26 October 2013    Liverpool    4–1    West Bromwich Albion
22 March 2014    Cardiff City    3–6    Liverpool
1 January 2014    Liverpool    2–0    Hull City
23 February 2014    Liverpool    4–3    Swansea City
19 October 2013    Newcastle United    2–2    Liverpool

We'll be hard pressed to repeat that form.