Topic: Brexit - doesn't really seem to be a very good idea does it? (*)

[kavah]

^ The United Kingdom of England, Wales and The Orkneys And The Falklands

The flag would be mad

[cowtownred]

Really? 10 years? I can't see that at all. I don't think ROI want or need NI, for a start.  The losses in seats for unionist parties in the assembly elections doesn't necessarily indicate an appetite for a United Ireland.  The DUP lost seats chiefly because of the cash for ash scandal, and also their Brexit support and their ties to evangelicalism.  Huge swathes of middle ground voters (alliance/green/pbp) will settle for the status quo.  I even know SF voters who say they'd likely vote no to a United Ireland. 

Personally, it would likely take a fairly hard brexit and indy Scotland to make me vote for a United Ireland if the question was asked anytime soon.  And even then, I could see the fallout from reunification being bloody and violent.

Apart from your last line, I can't disagree with any of your post mate.  I guess anything we think is subjective, there is no hard evidence either way.  However from a Unionist background, I feel there has been a big sea change in the last 20 years... more so recently. It appears to me that previous moderate unionists are now quite content with the idea of unification in a way I didn't think would happen in my lifetime. I'm sure Brexit has accelerated this recently.  I disagree with your last line because while there are some far right ultra DUP types, the troublemakers on that side were never as motivated by politics as their Republican rivals. More that the ''loyalist?'' freedom fighters wanted to terrorise and make money by thuggery.  In fact I bet the UDA would take a United Ireland every day if it got them more drugs money in Limerick... so I don't buy that.


The interesting thing is the Irish attitude to the North. Why I'd like to hear the views of posters I've mentioned.

I get the sense there is now an all island desire for unity which has never existed before, north and south.  I wonder if that is indeed the attitude of citizens in the ROI?  It definitely is a growing attitude up in the North, and I'm talking ordinary previously 'British' citizens.

If Scotland goes.... we will follow and not too long after.

[ShakaHislop]

The Commons have voted down both Brexit bill amendments.

Two Tory rebellions on EU nationals; none on the "meaningful deal" one.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39249721?intlink_from_url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-39256795&link_location=live-reporting-story

Anna Soubry all mouth, no trousers.

[Zeb]

The Commons have voted down both Brexit bill amendments.

Two Tory rebellions on EU nationals; none on the "meaningful deal" one.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39249721?intlink_from_url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-39256795&link_location=live-reporting-story

Anna Soubry all mouth, no trousers.

Simon Wren Lewis has re-posted his thoughts from last month. Worth a read, even if one wants to quibble a bit with him. The conclusion.

Of course politicians have always compromised principles to some extent to achieve power. But for the politicians on the right who let Brexit or Trump pass unchallenged, it is not clear what principles remain beyond their own career. Why this seems to have happened so completely on the right in the UK and US is not clear. Is it, as Roy Hattersley suggests, the availability of instant polls and focus groups which make it so easy just to follow popular opinion in order to get elected. Or is it the growing influence of money. Or perhaps even the gradual death of the empathy for others created by WWII. Whatever it is, it is about time we recognised and lamented the passing of conservative principles and their replacement with whatever policies they can get away with to make the rich richer and to keep power. Unfortunately we are all about to reap what this death has helped sow.

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/brexit-and-trump-are-fundamentally.html

[ShrewKop]

Nicola Sturgeon is leading Scotland down a very dangerous path with another referendum; with the sole selfish purpose of becoming a supposed national hero.

Much like the Brexit campaign, there is no real substance in what she says - it is all rhetoric. "We can do this, we can do that" and that's fine, but it's hardly a solid base to break into economic independence in such uncertain times. EU member states are already saying Scotland will be unwelcome in the EU, Spain in particular due to tensions with Catalonia. What happens then? They will presumably be stripped of the pound so would have to have their own currency and create their own trade deals, with England likely their biggest importer / exporter as they'd need to get a deal in place quickly.

Just like in the last referendum, i'm sure the Scottish voters will realise that rhetoric is not enough. If Nicola Sturgeon can put in place a bona fide plan with agreements in place as to how Scotland will survive as an independent state, then good on them and if they vote to leave then good luck to them. However, as I'm sure it will be, she will be spouting rhetoric right the way through and I sincerely hope the Scots can see through it and not leave the UK on an emotional decision, but one based on a solid foundation to give themselves the best chance.

[Elmo!]

Nicola Sturgeon is leading Scotland down a very dangerous path with another referendum; with the sole selfish purpose of becoming a supposed national hero.

Much like the Brexit campaign, there is no real substance in what she says - it is all rhetoric. "We can do this, we can do that" and that's fine, but it's hardly a solid base to break into economic independence in such uncertain times. EU member states are already saying Scotland will be unwelcome in the EU, Spain in particular due to tensions with Catalonia. What happens then? They will presumably be stripped of the pound so would have to have their own currency and create their own trade deals, with England likely their biggest importer / exporter as they'd need to get a deal in place quickly.

Just like in the last referendum, i'm sure the Scottish voters will realise that rhetoric is not enough. If Nicola Sturgeon can put in place a bona fide plan with agreements in place as to how Scotland will survive as an independent state, then good on them and if they vote to leave then good luck to them. However, as I'm sure it will be, she will be spouting rhetoric right the way through and I sincerely hope the Scots can see through it and not leave the UK on an emotional decision, but one based on a solid foundation to give themselves the best chance.

How many times does this have to be debunked.....?

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/XYIMvEvmwSs" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/XYIMvEvmwSs</a>

Which countries have said Scotland would be unwelcome? Have you got a source? I can provide several saying we would be most welcome.

[mattD]

How many times does this have to be debunked.....?

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/XYIMvEvmwSs" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/XYIMvEvmwSs</a>

Which countries have said Scotland would be unwelcome? Have you got a source? I can provide several saying we would be most welcome.

Really? One politician's answer is the rule is it? For sure, Scotland will be able to rejoin, but the accession process is long and drawn out. Don't think it's going to be simple.

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/841334440630595584

[Elmo!]

Really? One politician's answer is the rule is it? For sure, Scotland will be able to rejoin, but the accession process is long and drawn out. Don't think it's going to be simple.

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/841334440630595584

I was responding to someone saying Spain will veto, not whether Scotland would have to re-apply. This is not just one person this is a senior Spanish MEP for the ruling pary. The Spanish foreign minister said the same before the referendum. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2014/09/15/spain-is-unlikely-to-veto-an-independent-scotlands-eu-membership/

Spain literally does not give a fuck if independence is won in a legal way according to the British constitution. On top of that they have a strong interest in Scotland remaining in the EU, given how much their fishing industry relies on access to Scottish waters.

Precedent is also on Scotlands side, given Spain didn't have a problem with Czechoslovakia splitting up, nor South Sudan becoming independent, whereas they do have a problem with Kosovo, which declared UDI.

[ABZ Rover]

Wee Nicola is incompetent?  Ha fucking ha, how do you make that one out?  She's far away the brightest and best leader of any party on these islands!!  If she'd been SNP leader in 2014 Scotland would already be independent. Hopefully it's a formality now. She will whip May's arse all day long.

Really?

Perhaps she should focus on sorting the areas that the devolved government have authority over (which seem to be going down the shitter at a vast rate of knots) rather than pushing ahead for another shit storm that will devide the country further.

Let her put forward a full white paper detailing how the economics and structure of this new utopia will work then we can talk about another referendum.  Remember all that lovely oil cash at $100+ a barrel, yeh right!

Show us that you understand grown up politics first Krankie rather than fuckin pipe dreams!

[Elmo!]

Show us that you understand grown up politics

Krankie

 

[Red-Soldier]

Show us that you understand grown up politics first Krankie rather than fuckin pipe dreams!

 

[killer-heels]

Really?

Perhaps she should focus on sorting the areas that the devolved government have authority over (which seem to be going down the shitter at a vast rate of knots) rather than pushing ahead for another shit storm that will devide the country further.

Let her put forward a full white paper detailing how the economics and structure of this new utopia will work then we can talk about another referendum.  Remember all that lovely oil cash at $100+ a barrel, yeh right!

Show us that you understand grown up politics first Krankie rather than fuckin pipe dreams!

Since when do economics matter?

[ABZ Rover]

Care to address the rest of the post regards putting forward a believable fiscal argument for independence?

Nah, didn't think so.

[killer-heels]

Care to address the rest of the post regards putting forward a believable fiscal argument for independence?

Nah, didn't think so.

Are you scottish?

[Elmo!]

Really?

Perhaps she should focus on sorting the areas that the devolved government have authority over (which seem to be going down the shitter at a vast rate of knots) rather than pushing ahead for another shit storm that will devide the country further.

Let her put forward a full white paper detailing how the economics and structure of this new utopia will work then we can talk about another referendum.  Remember all that lovely oil cash at $100+ a barrel, yeh right!

Show us that you understand grown up politics first Krankie rather than fuckin pipe dreams!

So ignoring your 'grown up' ending to the post....

Can you give some examples?

And a white paper will no doubt be produced once a referendum is confirmed and the campaign is under way. We can 'talk about another referendum' right now because the SNP and the Greens, who both said in their manifestos that they would call for a referendum in the current circumstances, got more than 50% of the vote in the Scottish elections. That's democracy.

[west_london_red]

Since when do economics matter?

Well since most of Scotland voted to Remaim I would guess that they count for something.

[MBL?]

I love the way people ask how they could survive on their own. Is there something different about them than every other similar sized western nation?

Ireland for example was in the shit after the financial crash. Armageddon we were led to believe. That was in 2008, by 2014 we were one of the fastest growing economy's in the world. Anybody saying Scotland can't make it alone is talking through their hoop.

I get the sense there is now an all island desire for unity which has never existed before, north and south.  I wonder if that is indeed the attitude of citizens in the ROI?  It definitely is a growing attitude up in the North, and I'm talking ordinary previously 'British' citizens.

If Scotland goes.... we will follow and not too long after.

A referendum on a united Ireland would pass in the south. I don't think it would in the North. Economically I think it would be great for the island in a relatively short space of time. I've said it before on here but I'd be happy to ditch the anthem change the constitution and even get rid of the flag (even though the flag is about both sides). The only worry would be violence but I'm not sure there would be much of that as protestants would not be discriminated against like the catholics in the North were years ago.

[killer-heels]

Well since most of Scotland voted to Remaim I would guess that they count for something.

North of the border they matter. But why should their economics matter to us south of the border?

[west_london_red]

North of the border they matter. But why should their economics matter to us south of the border?

It's more instability during an already unstable and uncertain time.

[ABZ Rover]

Are you scottish?

Why?

[ABZ Rover]

So ignoring your 'grown up' ending to the post....

Can you give some examples?

And a white paper will no doubt be produced once a referendum is confirmed and the campaign is under way. We can 'talk about another referendum' right now because the SNP and the Greens, who both said in their manifestos that they would call for a referendum in the current circumstances, got more than 50% of the vote in the Scottish elections. That's democracy.

The "once in a generation", as per Salmond and Sturgeon, vote to stay in the union was democracy was it not.

Or is it only democratic if it goes your way?

[zebenzui]

The "once in a generation", as per Salmond and Sturgeon,vote to stay in the union was democracy was in not.

Or is it only democratic if it goes your way?

Why don't you ask the SNP and Green voters.

Or do the personal views of Salmond and Sturgeon discount their democratic voice?

[Elmo!]

The "once in a generation", as per Salmond and Sturgeon,vote to stay in the union was democracy was in not.

Or is it only democratic if it goes your way?

So you want to hold the personal opinion of one politician over the Scottish electorates? Doesn't sound very democratic.

He also never gave a commitment or promise it was once in a generation, he said he thought it would be once in a generation, as in 'we might not get another shot at this so go for it now'. It is wilful ignorance by the press to report it as anything other than that.

[killer-heels]

Why?

Why so pro remain for the scots?

[killer-heels]

It's more instability during an already unstable and uncertain time.

What are we losing that we are not already losing under the EU if the scots vote for independence?

[redbyrdz]

Wonder if there could be some sort of economic partnership of Scotland and Ireland, post Brexit. But if both are in the EU, they wouldn't need to.

[west_london_red]

What are we losing that we are not already losing under the EU if the scots vote for independence?

In pure number the rest of the UK would probably be better off, as we don't have to pay for their above average cost of delivering public services, but the divorce will be a lot more complicated when you consider how integrated the rest of the UK and Scotland are, same currency, same central bank, same debt etc all of which don't apply when you compare it to the UK and EU, 40 years of integration compared to 300 years.

[oldfordie]

It's more instability during an already unstable and uncertain time.

I think the plan is to prevent a disaster by staying in the EU, instability is certain which ever way they go.
Parliament and the Torys in particular are the last people to preaching to anyone after the last year. a disgrace.. referendum only came about due to Tory power games.  irresponsible complacent approach to the referendum question itself, refusing to consider whether all the nations should gain a majority.
The lie over everyone voting to leave the single market to justify the Tory hard right Brexit.
Then we have the propaganda nationalist leave MPs intimidating our supreme court. our MPs. the Lords. vilifying them for demanding our democratic procedures in Parliament be followed.
Politics has always been dirty but I never thought this country would sink to the level it has over the last year.

[killer-heels]

In pure number the rest of the UK would probably be better off, as we don't have to pay for their above average cost of delivering public services, but the divorce will be a lot more complicated when you consider how integrated the rest of the UK and Scotland are, same currency, same central bank, same debt etc all of which don't apply when you compare it to the UK and EU, 40 years of integration compared to 300 years.

Is that a greater loss to us than Brexit?

[Elmo!]

Wonder if there could be some sort of economic partnership of Scotland and Ireland, post Brexit. But if both are in the EU, they wouldn't need to.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CelticUnion/

Otherwise known as the Union of Craic...

[west_london_red]

I think the plan is to prevent a disaster by staying in the EU, instability is certain which ever way they go.
Parliament and the Torys in particular are the last people to preaching to anyone after the last year. a disgrace.. referendum only came about due to Tory power games.  irresponsible complacent approach to the referendum question itself, refusing to consider whether all the nations should gain a majority.
The lie over everyone voting to leave the single market to justify the Tory hard right Brexit.
Then we have the propaganda nationalist leave MPs intimidating our supreme court. our MPs. the Lords. vilifying them for demanding our democratic procedures in Parliament be followed.
Politics has always been dirty but I never thought this country would sink to the level it has over the last year.

if your referring to Scotland in your first sentence I'm not sure I agree. By the time the seperation is agreed between the UK and Scotland I would guess that the UK (including Scotland) will already be out of the EU so Scotland will have to rejoin the EU rather then be a member on day 1 of independence.

But I stand by what I have said previously, replaced the word EU with UK and UK with Scotland and the arguments from the Leavers and Scottish nationalists is very similar, even the slogans are interchangeable - for the will of the people read Scotlands democratic right, it's just the same arguments.

As for your last sentence - I agree 100%, we seem to be finding new lows on a weekly basis.

[west_london_red]

Is that a greater loss to us than Brexit?

Probably not, but I don't think they are a million miles apart either and it would be dangerous to underestimate the impact of 'Scotxit' or whatever it will be called on the rest of the UK.

[killer-heels]

Probably not, but I don't think they are a million miles apart either and it would be dangerous to underestimate the impact of 'Scotxit' or whatever it will be called on the rest of the UK.

Is it really on the same level? If the worst Brexit happens we could face tariffs on most things we import, lose plenty of i dustry and see our exports reduce. That market is much bigger to us than the scots.

[Libertine]

A fascinating development.

You'd imagine it will be quite a different referendum this time. Interestingly the leave campaign made up a huge amount of ground during the last campaign and right now it's close to 50-50 in the polls. It's also hard to think of any UK government argument that will not sound ridiculous in the wake of Brexit.

[west_london_red]

Is it really on the same level? If the worst Brexit happens we could face tariffs on most things we import, lose plenty of i dustry and see our exports reduce. That market is much bigger to us than the scots.

I think it could be, yes the Scottish market is smaller but we share a lot more with Scotland then just trade, things we don't share with the rest of the EU like currency, an open boarder (Ireland aside obviously), armed forces, pensions and a million other things.

[oldfordie]

if your referring to Scotland in your first sentence I'm not sure I agree. By the time the seperation is agreed between the UK and Scotland I would guess that the UK (including Scotland) will already be out of the EU so Scotland will have to rejoin the EU rather then be a member on day 1 of independence.

But I stand by what I have said previously, replaced the word EU with UK and UK with Scotland and the arguments from the Leavers and Scottish nationalists is very similar, even the slogans are interchangeable - for the will of the people read Scotlands democratic right, it's just the same arguments.

As for your last sentence - I agree 100%, we seem to be finding new lows on a weekly basis.

The SNP are adamant they should have the referendum while we are still in the EU. they will stand their ground on this, they want to remain in the EU, not leave with the UK and then have to rejoin.
It's a massive point, they have control of the situation if they are still members after the vote.
If they leave then they have to rely on EU members voting them back in then it could take years to rejoin.
I imagine the campaign for independence will be very different this time as remaining members of the EU is the issue as well, it will be a big embarrassment for the leave campaign MPs. it will be a nice to see the leave campaign try and get away with the same lies to leave up in Scotland.

[killer-heels]

I think it could be, yes the Scottish market is smaller but we share a lot more with Scotland then just trade, things we don't share with the rest of the EU like currency, an open boarder (Ireland aside obviously), armed forces, pensions and a million other things.

But none that material to eclipse losing what we will lose if the EU negotiations go bad. Not for the average person anyway. The impact of Scotland leaving wont hit us as hard. I would imagine most of England dont really care.

[ShakaHislop]

The House of Lords have accepted defeat on both amendments, so the Article 50 bill is finally passed into law.

Meanwhile...

While peers have been debating the article 50 bill, Gina Miller, who brought the court case that led to the supreme court saying the government would have to pass the article 50 bill, has been speaking at a meeting of Islington in Europe.

She said that, if there was no vote in parliament at the end of the Brexit talks, she would take the government back to court. She said:

    What has been done is like an act of war. It will change the course of history. They have forgotten about conscience, principle and our country. In 18 months time, when they come back from Europe with a deal or no deal, if there is no vote in parliament and an act of parliament, I will take them back to court.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/mar/13/article-50-commons-lords-brexit-sturgeon-speech-corbyn-clarifies-his-position-on-second-scottish-independence-referendum-saying-hes-opposed-politics-live?page=with:block-58c70a60e4b00bd41ba5195f#block-58c70a60e4b00bd41ba5195f

[TheShanklyGates]

The House of Lords have accepted defeat on both amendments, so the Article 50 bill is finally passed into law.

Meanwhile...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/mar/13/article-50-commons-lords-brexit-sturgeon-speech-corbyn-clarifies-his-position-on-second-scottish-independence-referendum-saying-hes-opposed-politics-live?page=with:block-58c70a60e4b00bd41ba5195f#block-58c70a60e4b00bd41ba5195f

A dark, dark day for this country. History will not be kind to this group of MPs.

[oldfordie]

The House of Lords have accepted defeat on both amendments, so the Article 50 bill is finally passed into law.

Meanwhile...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/mar/13/article-50-commons-lords-brexit-sturgeon-speech-corbyn-clarifies-his-position-on-second-scottish-independence-referendum-saying-hes-opposed-politics-live?page=with:block-58c70a60e4b00bd41ba5195f#block-58c70a60e4b00bd41ba5195f

Brave woman, shame our parliament haven got the guts to stand up to the Tory mob as well.
Voting against parliaments right to hold the Tory cabinet to account.