Topic: Results Comparison Thread: 2013-4

[JP-65]

I'll post up the updates later, but we lost 3 points on the equivalent match, but had the same result last season on the time so no ground lost there.

[JP-65]

Updated time comparison:

LFC still best Season To Date...United bottom of the table now!

[JP-65]

Updated Equivalent Match:

Spurs & Southampton now with the best improvement

[JP-65]

The scoring stats:

With us being shut out, Arsenal is the only team now to have scored in all matches.

Scoring rate is significantly down this season, only Arsenal & City are putting them in the net regularly

[JP-65]

Defense Stats:

Spurs now have the best defensive record, and the most clean sheets

Southampton doing well on this measurement, showed on the pitch on Saturday.

Historically, the teams that give up the most goals, go down....on that basis, Hull & Sunderland are early runners for that claim!

[helmboy_nige]

It's a shame to see us slip back to only 2 points up on equivalent match results.  What I found interesting is that if you go further back we are actually only 1 point down on our great 08/09 season, so plenty of time to come back.

Sunderland was a game we drew last season so hopefully we can make some improvements there.

[JP-65]

Points Per Game (PPG) for the last 5 seasons

[JP-65]

Updated equivalent match:

United's gap is significantly reduced, Spuds up to 2nd, we've now drawn even with Everton & big gap from top 7 to the rest.
Palace look like a cert to go down.

Arsenal's start doesn't look so good on this measurement

[JP-65]

Arsenal look better on the time comparison, as does LFC....Chelsea, City & United all have had bad starts on both measures
Palace look bad on both as well

[JP-65]

The scoring stats, Arsenal & City clearly ahead of the pack here, Arsenal still the only team to have scored in all matches.

[JP-65]

The defense stats, Southampton & Spurs lead the way, both on GA & on clean sheets.
Sunderland & Palace without a clean sheet, joined by Hull at the bottom of GA.....this usually is a strong indicator of who's going to get relegated.

[JP-65]

Points Per Game for last 5 seasons:
Best start during this time & above required run rate for CL spot.

[Anthony]

Thanks JP - as intriguing as ever!

What surprises me about the Equivalent Table is not so much our advance or how Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City have fallen back, but that even with Moyes the Mancs are still stubbornly bang in line with last year's results.

That and the matter of 2 point spread between 9th and 15th - talk about tight...

What surprises me about the Equivalent Table is how well Spurs are doing...

[helmboy_nige]

Good stuff again. It's interesting seeing how poor in equivalent match stats the likes of Man City and Chelsea are. It's early days, but already Spurs and Arsenal have shaken off their slow starts to previous seasons.  Could end up being a very tight season.

[JP-65]

Good stuff again. It's interesting seeing how poor in equivalent match stats the likes of Man City and Chelsea are. It's early days, but already Spurs and Arsenal have shaken off their slow starts to previous seasons.  Could end up being a very tight season.

I think this season is going to end with some huge surprises at the top end of the table (albeit from the usual 6, but radically different order).
It's already a good bet that Palace, and 2 of 3 of Hull, Sunderland & Cardiff are going down.

[keano7]

I think this season is going to end with some huge surprises at the top end of the table (albeit from the usual 6, but radically different order).
It's already a good bet that Palace, and 2 of 3 of Hull, Sunderland & Cardiff are going down.

I think Stoke are in real danger to. No pace upfront and limited creativity from midfield. Agree with your point about the top end of the table, I wouldn't be surprised if any of Spurs, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Man Utd win it.

[Geormajesty]

The defense stats, Southampton & Spurs lead the way, both on GA & on clean sheets.
Sunderland & Palace without a clean sheet, joined by Hull at the bottom of GA.....this usually is a strong indicator of who's going to get relegated.

Hull's GA/PM should be 1.17, not 3.

[JP-65]

Hull's GA/PM should be 1.17, not 3.

Thanks for that, I had a typo in my database, I'll fix the graph tomorrow & repost

[Bobinhood]

Updated time comparison:

LFC still best Season To Date...United bottom of the table now!

Mancs for the Drop.


Spread the word.

[JP-65]

Corrected the defense stats, scratch the comment about Hull, for the time being anyway

[Raul!]

I think the time comparison is generally more instructive than the equivalent game comparison, as it takes into account current form and momentum, which, as we know are rather important.  The equivalent game comparison is perhaps more useful to compare ourselves with our main rivals for the top four places.

Both interesting to see though!

[JP-65]

A couple of nice charts that I found on twitter:

[MagicLuis]

A couple of nice charts that I found on twitter:

Interesting charts those JP. In the second chart, we will now start moving to the right with Suarez' return as he will take a lot of shots.
I think we allowed very little shots on goal last season but this season we are up there. That's a worry.

[JP-65]

Interesting charts those JP. In the second chart, we will now start moving to the right with Suarez' return as he will take a lot of shots.
I think we allowed very little shots on goal last season but this season we are up there. That's a worry.

Interesting to look at our GF/GA in relation to this data.....

This season, after 6 matches, we're GF 8 GA 4

For the equivalent matches last season, we were GF 5 GA 4

For the first 6 fixtures last season, we were GF 9 GA 12

So clear improvement in defense in one comparison, and in attack in the other

[BazC]

Really interesting charts, especially the second one, because the evolution of that will be interesting to see when we have Coutinho, Suarez and Sturridge all fit in the same starting 11. It hasn't happened this season yet of course.

[DanA]

To be honest I don't think we can take much from those charts. We've changed formation, brought in Suarez, have been missing Johnson and Coutinho and haven't yet worked out who our first choice defenders are. Still a few weeks before we settle IMO

[JP-65]

To be honest I don't think we can take much from those charts. We've changed formation, brought in Suarez, have been missing Johnson and Coutinho and haven't yet worked out who our first choice defenders are. Still a few weeks before we settle IMO

You can get granular on anything Dan, I'm more of the opinion it's best to ignore the "noise" in the data and accept it for what's it's worth, recognizing that it's a small data set at this point in the season.

I may take on the task of tracking the same data, but just for ourselves, and display it as a progression/regression as the season unfolds (ie are we becoming more/less efficient in attack & defense as the season progresses)

[JP-65]

This is not statistically sound, but compulsive viewing anyway! (link as it's too big to post on here)
Puts all the 5 big European leagues together....not surprising either!

http://t.co/2aZuTZkrbE

[Lofty Ambitions]

This is not statistically sound, but compulsive viewing anyway! (link as it's too big to post on here)
Puts all the 5 big European leagues together....not surprising either!

http://t.co/2aZuTZkrbE

Wow, that's a rather impressive chart you've put together there !!! 

[JP-65]

Wow, that's a rather impressive chart you've put together there !!! 

Not mine.....I like to get out once in a while!

[Lofty Ambitions]

Ok, that's quite a chart regardless

So we morphed into languidly clinical, from energetically wasteful. Can't disgree with that, really... 

[JP-65]

Ok, that's quite a chart regardless

So we morphed into languidly clinical, from energetically wasteful. Can't disgree with that, really... 

Both are great descriptions for: (a) Sturridge (b) Suarez, respectively!  We've got it covered this season.

[zabadoh]

Dortmund all the way out on its own on the lower right  :-)

[Jack Slater]

The first season  of 3 points for a win was 1981/82.  So this is the 33rd season.

In those 33 seasons, we have reached at least 16 points after 7 games just 6 times.


21 points

90/91  finished 2nd with 76 points from 38 games


19 points

87/88  finished 1st with 90 points from 40 games (86 from first 38)


17 points

82/83  finished 1st with 82 points from 42 games (81 from first 38)

96/97 finished 4th with 68 points from 38 games

08/09 finished 2nd with 86 points from 38 games


16 points

13/14  finished ?? with ?? points from 38 games


So 96/97 can be a warning to us (if any were needed) that such a good start does not necessarily lead to a top 2 finish.  (Although I would certainly be happy with 4th place and 68 points this season).

However, it is encouraging that the other four occasions have all led to a top two finish and more than 70 points. 

Three times out of the previous five times (so 60%) that we have got at least 16 points from the first seven games, we have got more than 80 points from the first 38 games.

[Liamski-la]

Good points from our next 4 games and it would take a pretty big slip in form for us not to be in contention for a top 4 spot next May.

This is no coincidence or luck. This is our form since Xmas. Since we lost 2-1 at Old Trafford effectively.

[Mr_Shane]

We are beating the teams we should be beating for one. The result against Southampton on the other hand is hard to make out this season. That's the team who inflicted our only two losses since Manchester United

[JP-65]

Jumped over Chelsea and Spurs into 4th on the Time Comparison

[JP-65]

Clear gap between top 7 and rest on equivalent match, but Southampton are this seasons "dark horse" candidate

[JP-65]

Last 5 season PPG trends, best start by 1 point during this time, and still well over the 1.8 average for a CL spot

[JP-65]

The scoring stats:

Arsenal continue as the only team to have scored in all matches this season, joined by City & Chelsea as the teams who score most frequently....LFC in the next tier of capability

Stoke & Palace lead the league in futility, with Sunderland not too far off (three we've played)