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This is my take on it too. I was thinking during the Wigan game that once the 4th goal went in, we started to play like we were preparing for the Spurs game - for much of the Wigan game we played a 4-1-4-1 rather than a 4-3-3:
Downing and Coutinho got most of their touches inside our half, as well as the inside forward positions (Zone 14):
And Downing:
So it was almost like a replication of the Arsenal game - sitting deep, hitting on the break, only this time getting an early goal and Reina being in great form.
For me, this was an indication for how we'll line up against Spurs, who will probably go with their 4-2-3-1 formation:
Personnel will, of course, change due to availability, but the structure is the same - High pressing back four, solid central midfield two, Bale in a free role, a Target man up front for Bale to make runs off, a deeper left mid and the pace of Lennon on the right. Their pace is their main asset, followed by Bale's delivery on set plays. Dropping back ten yards and playing on the break is probably Rodgers' main idea, because the problem Arsenal had was that their back line, although pushed up as well, was also very flat (the hand of Steve Bould was all over it). They were caught square with a few diagonal through balls in that game, and that's something I think we will be looking to eliminate, so I would expect our defence to show a lot of depth, especially on the diagonal. This might nullify Johnson's attacking role somewhat, but we can more than make up for that with the pace and mobility of our counters. What our issue will be, is which players step out if we start with both Sturridge and Suarez? I can see us playing a similar 4-1-4-1 to the Wigan game, so that means we either do what we did against Arsenal and play Suarez on the left and Sturridge up front - in which case the question becomes who drops out, Coutinho or Downing - or we go with the 4-1-3-2 that has worked for us, in which case we'll have to play Henderson for his workrate, which again begs the question, who drops out? I could see us going for the attacking units we had against Arsenal, with Coutinho to come on for Downing in the second half - if we play conservatively in the attack:
Or if we take the game to Spurs somewhat, and go for the 4-1-3-2, it would look largely as it has since Christmas:
The only question would surround Coutinho and Downing - if Henderson plays, do we keep Downing on the right or throw Coutinho out there and use him to counterattack with his speed and passing? We can't really play Henderson there, as he tends to crowd the space Gerrard plays in, and he balances Gerrard out in central midfield on the left, so it could end up we play something like this:
The game will be decided by how we cope with the match-ups. I think that Enrique has enough to handle Lennon, and will be quite content to play a purely defensive role for this game, with a minimal amount of getting forward. Sturridge should occupy the Spurs central defence well, and if Henderson does the "1.5" job in left midfield, then that frees Suarez up to do some damage. If Downing is on the right, then he will both press the Spurs left back and double up with Johnson when necessary, as well as cover for any overlapping runs Johnson makes. Gerrard will be able to win his duel with Parker (or whoever occupies the left defensive mid position), and whether Spurs play with Adebayor or Dempsey up front, Agger and Carragher should do okay against them. If Defoe plays, though, then dropping back into the defensive third will be crucial, and it will be important to keep an eye on each of Defoe, Lennon and Bale. Bale is, of course, the danger man, and stopping him will go a long way to stopping Spurs. Lucas will be crucial in this, but so too will Carragher and Agger. If Lucas can push him onto his right side, leaving Agger to double team and Carragher to sweep up, then it will be difficult for Spurs to play through Bale. If they allow him to run on his left side and create space, Reina will have to be at his positional best to save the inevitable shots on target that Bale will get. The key match-ups are as below (with alterations for personnel, of course):
The key question, as mentioned before, for Spurs, is how much do they risk? They play Inter, then us, then Inter again. Villas-Boas is an avowed fan of the Europa League, so we have to assume he'll want a good result in the first leg against Inter - and if things are tricky after that game, he might actually rest some players for the game at Anfield. I think we'll see Friedel in goal, maybe some replacements at fullback, and Dempsey on the left. On the other hand, if Lucas is in snarling tackling form, Bale might see the bench early to keep him from getting injured. A lot of Spurs preparation I think will be governened by the outcome of Thursday's game, and because of that we might see a slightly weakened side against us, and a possible comfortable win (not on the scoreboard, but in the flow of the game) as Spurs preserve themselves for the second leg against Inter. That Thursday game will be watched with some interest by Rodgers, I think.
