Topic: Results Comparison 2015/16

[rickardinho1]

Thanks for taking my suggestion onboard zab

Looks like things are on the up for us again. Big chance for a +3 next week when we play Palace, though United have a chance for the same vs WBA.

[zabadoh]

@rickardinho1  You're welcome, and thank you for the suggestion.  It does look better.  I'm going to make the lowest value at 60 since nobody is in danger of breaching that yet.

Palace are playing in very consistent midtable form, losing to most of the current top 6 and beating almost everyone else. 

They won't be pushovers.

On the other hand, next week's result could be a good indication of whether we deserve to be above them, below them, or in the same midtable pack with them.

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I think West Ham are pretenders;  They appear to be beneficiaries of a soft schedule early on, because they're only +1 over last season's equivalent results.

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But what about Leicester City?  Are they really top 3 material?

They're +8 points over last season's equivalents, but it's still difficult to say, because they've only faced one top side, Arsenal, and lost.   

Other than that, they've beaten most of the low and mid table teams they've faced.

So far, if they can keep up their current form, then they're headed for the higher end of the mid table pack.

[me76]

Thanks for the effort putting this together mate, and for all those who came up with the concept/contributed in prior years ;-)

[zabadoh]

We lost the equivalent match vs Palace last season, so no points lost this week.

	Projected Points	Projected GD	Cumul PtsD	Cumul GFD	Cumul GAD	Cumul GD
Man City	85	+54	+6	+4	-5	+9
Arsenal	78	+38	+3	+1	-2	+3
Chelsea	74	+24	-13	-7	+10	-17
Spurs	70	+20	+6	+8	-7	+15
Man Utd	69	+24	-1	-6	-5	-1
Liverpool	64	+10	+2	0	-6	+6

Next round's equivalent results from last season:

Manchester City	3-1	Liverpool
Watford(Burnley)	0-0	Manchester United
Tottenham Hotspur	2-2	West Ham United
West Bromwich Albion	0-1	Arsenal
Chelsea	2-1	QPR

Opportunities for us, United, and Spurs to improve.

[zabadoh]

Man City and Arsenal dropped points, everyone else gained.

In fact, Arsenal are back to where they finished last season.

	Projected Points	Projected GD	Cumul PtsD	Cumul GFD	Cumul GAD	Cumul GD
Man City	82	+49	+3	+2	-2	+4
Arsenal	75	+36	0	+1	0	+1
Chelsea	74	+24	-13	-8	+9	-17
Spurs	72	+23	+8	+10	-8	+18
Man Utd	71	+25	+1	-4	-4	0
Liverpool	67	+15	+5	3	-8	+11

Next week's equivalent results from last season:

Liverpool	4-1	Swansea City
Leicester City	5-3	Manchester United
Manchester City	2-0	Southampton
Tottenham Hotspur	5-3	Chelsea
Norwich City(QPR)	1-2	Arsenal

[McrRed]

Cheers zabadoh. Next week looks like a biggie - Leicester should lose to utd but on current form who can say .... City don't look convincing without Kompany ... Can spurs heap misery on the plastics like we did?

[Hunts Cross]

Looking at the chart above, the anticipated points totals for all six teams is converging. We are in the mix and anything could be possible. Good times ahead.

[rickardinho1]

Spurs look vastly improved and this table backs that up big time with their +10pts improvement.

Their next run of fixtures should be interesting:

Chelsea (h) - par 3
West Brom (a) - par 1
Newcastle (h) - par 3
Southampton (a) - par 1
Norwich (h) - par 3
Watford (a) - par 3
Everton (a) - par 1

[JP-65]

Nice to see this thread still going, well done to everyone who's contributed.

I've been very busy and haven't had time to keep my databases up-to-date, sadly.

Here's a little contribution to the thread:

Klopp has had a tough run of fixtures to start, as well as not having much time to breathe with the mid-week cup one's as well....Palace & Southampton at home, Spurs, Chelsea & City away, IS a hard set of fixtures.

While we're all giddy after beating Chelsea & City away, when you look at the table for these 5 rounds, surprisingly, we've actually lost ground to most of our key competitors.

[JP-65]

It's clear that Chelsea's CL spot is up for grabs, as Chelsea needs to go at 90 points/season rate to get to the required 70-72 point area....not likely IMO.

If we're going to take that spot, it's arguably Spurs that's our competition for it.

The following chart compares ourselves to Spurs on a time basis, looking at last season vs this one.
I've split the season into groupings, using key periods, last season & this.
Last season, we had a poor start of 17 matches, followed by a hot streak of 12 matches, then a poor end of 9 started by the Man Utd loss.
This season, we have the Rodgers period of 8 matches, followed by 5 under Klopp's management.

We're currently 1 point worse, relative to Spurs, than last season...4 points behind vs 3 last
We have 4 matches where we can pick up some ground, then there's a 12 match period where it may be difficult to maintain the pace, followed by a 9 match stretch where we should do well.

Seems to me that it'll be nip & tuck between the two teams to make that spot, with a slimmer chance that Arsenal or United slip back a bit and enter the fray with us

[rickardinho1]

Nice to see this thread still going, well done to everyone who's contributed.

I've been very busy and haven't had time to keep my databases up-to-date, sadly.

Here's a little contribution to the thread:

Klopp has had a tough run of fixtures to start, as well as not having much time to breathe with the mid-week cup one's as well....Palace & Southampton at home, Spurs, Chelsea & City away, IS a hard set of fixtures.

While we're all giddy after beating Chelsea & City away, when you look at the table for these 5 rounds, surprisingly, we've actually lost ground to most of our key competitors.

I'm pretty sure most people would have taken 8 points from the last 5 fixtures if offered them ahead of time. The only difference is that most people would have predicted the results as follows instead:

Spurs (a) - 1 point
Saints (h) - 3 points
Chelsea (a) - 1 point
Palace (h) - 3 points
City (a) - 0 points

As it happens we got 8 points but 7 in the 3 hard away fixtures. Doing it the way we did it is actually better than the way listed above as it means we took even more points from direct rivals and lost points to teams who will finish below instead.

We did lose ground on our rivals, but most of these rivals still have to look forward to visiting Spurs, Chelsea, and City (or equivalent) later in the season when they'll be the ones losing ground on us.

[Brian Blessed]

I was going to say great to see you back, JP, then I read your post

[JP-65]

I was going to say great to see you back, JP, then I read your post

You know me...

[zabadoh]

I think it will be difficult to catch Spurs.  Pochettino has vastly improved them from last season on both attack (+10 GF) and defense (-8 GA). 

The only question is whether they will collapse physically from his playing style later on in the season, although that could happen to us under Klopp too.

With Chelsea in tatters, although I think they could regain form with a new manager come January, and ManU holding steady, I think those are the two teams we'll have the best chance of leapfrogging into the top 4 this season.

Those 2 and an upstart Leicester City, who look like they'll also be in the hunt for 4th place, with a big "IF" they can keep up their current form.

[rickardinho1]

I think it will be difficult to catch Spurs.  Pochettino has vastly improved them from last season on both attack (+10 GF) and defense (-8 GA). 

The only question is whether they will collapse physically from his playing style later on in the season, although that could happen to us under Klopp too.

With Chelsea in tatters, although I think they could regain form with a new manager come January, and ManU holding steady, I think those are the two teams we'll have the best chance of leapfrogging into the top 4 this season.

Those 2 and an upstart Leicester City, who look like they'll also be in the hunt for 4th place, with a big "IF" they can keep up their current form.

I don't think that'll happen to us, for several reasons:

1. The team has only been implementing a pressing style this season for 6-7 weeks so far. In most games before Klopp joined we didn't play at a high intensity either.

2. Rodgers rotated quite heavily early on so there shouldn't be much lingering fatigue.

3. Our squad is bigger and deeper than Klopp had at Dortmund.

4. Klopp has been very calculated with his player selections and rotations this far to ensure players don't burn out.

5. We'll no doubt see a couple of key additions in January to freshen the squad (eg. LB seems inevitable).

[JP-65]

Here's the season to go analysis, presuming 70 points is the minimum threshold for 4th.

Chelsea are unlikely to make the CL spots.

Man Utd & Arsenal have CL spots IMO.

Spurs are in the drivers seat for the last spot.

We're likely to finish 5th, with an outside chance of a CL spot

[zabadoh]

I've just noticed that this week, we enter our "easiest" stretch of the season by equivalent results.

Last season's equivalent results for our next 6 matches, where we went W5 D1:

W   Liverpool    4-1   Swansea City
W   Liverpool    2-0   Newcastle United
W   Liverpool    2–1    West Bromwich Albion
W   Burnley   0-1   Liverpool
D   Liverpool    2-2   Leicester City
W   Sunderland    0-1   Liverpool

While replicating last season's results should do wonders for our position on the official table, it represents mostly opportunity to lose points in the equivalent match chart where we're still 5 points behind the pack fighting for 2nd-5th.

[PoetryInMotion]

I've just noticed that this week, we enter our "easiest" stretch of the season by equivalent results.

Last season's equivalent results for our next 6 matches, where we went W5 D1:

W   Liverpool    4-1   Swansea City
W   Liverpool    2-0   Newcastle United
W   Liverpool    2–1    West Bromwich Albion
W   Burnley   0-1   Liverpool
D   Liverpool    2-2   Leicester City
W   Sunderland    0-1   Liverpool

While replicating last season's results should do wonders for our position on the official table, it represents mostly opportunity to lose points in the equivalent match chart where we're still 5 points behind the pack fighting for 2nd-5th.

I don't think we won Away at Newcastle. We lost the fixture 1-0

[Suareznumber7]

5. We'll no doubt see a couple of key additions in January to freshen the squad (eg. LB seems inevitable).

This, I'm not so sure about. 

[zabadoh]

I don't think we won Away at Newcastle. We lost the fixture 1-0

Argh!  Got the home/away swapped  Thanks.

We have a good chance to improve and catch up to Spurs next week then

[zabadoh]

	Projected Points	Projected GD	Cumul PtsD	Cumul GFD	Cumul GAD	Cumul GD
Man City	82	+49	+3	+3	-1	+4
Chelsea	75	+26	-12	-11	+4	-15
Arsenal	73	+35	-2	0	0	0
Man Utd	72	+27	+2	-6	-8	+2
Spurs	70	+21	+6	+5	-11	+16
Liverpool	67	+13	+5	0	-9	+9

Next week's equivalent results from last season:

Newcastle United	1-0	Liverpool
Manchester United	2-1	West Ham United
Stoke City	1-4	Manchester City
West Bromwich Albion	0-2	Tottenham Hotspur
Arsenal	0-0	Sunderland
Chelsea	2-0	Bournemouth(Hull City)

[rickardinho1]

Great opportunity to gain some ground in this table next weekend with all our rivals (except Arsenal) needing to match wins and ourselves able to improve upon our comparative result.

[JP-65]

Updated for the weekend's matches:

PL Table is for the matches since Klopp's arrival
Spurs Comparison looks at last season vs this, with some key time/form subdivisions
Season To Go assesses what's needed in remaining matches to obtain a CL spot.

[JP-65]

I've sorted the season-to-go summary by league standing after 14 matches, for this season and the prior 3.

You can observe that, generally, there is little positional movement once a decent portion of the season is completed.

It takes a team to go on an extraordinary run to change league position if there is more than a few points separating them.  This says to me, that we're looking to fight for 4th this season.

FWIW, in all of these seasons, teams from outside the traditional "top 6" were in the mix at the 14 match stage, and all faded away.

[JP-65]

Here is the season-to-go looking at it from a title race perspective.

2 of the last 3 seasons, the title winner has been leading at this stage in the season.
The title winners all had 2.0 ppg after 14 matches, and maintained this over the course of the remainder of the season. (We were just under 2.0 ppg in 2013/4 after 14).

Despite all of our optimism under the new manager, I think it highly unlikely that we'll get into the fight for 1st.... seems to me to be between the two Manc teams, sadly.

[JP-65]

PS:  Arsenal or Chelsea really SHOULD have won it in 2013/4, amazing how little criticism came Wenger & the snide one's way for their failure to do so.

[rickardinho1]

PS:  Arsenal or Chelsea really SHOULD have won it in 2013/4, amazing how little criticism came Wenger & the snide one's way for their failure to do so.

Indeed. Arsenal were top of the league in February when they came to Anfield, and Chelsea were 2 points ahead of City with two games in hand in mid-March before losing against Sunderland, Palace, Villa, and Norwich.

[JP-65]

My view summarised then:

1/2 City & United, with City likely to win it.
3 Arsenal
4/5 Spurs & Liverpool, too close to call

[rickardinho1]

My view summarised then:

1/2 City & United, with City likely to win it.
3 Arsenal
4/5 Spurs & Liverpool, too close to call

City
Liverpool
Arsenal
Spurs
United

[zabadoh]

So I wanted to find out how Klopp has improved our performance (if at all) and what those effects were since he took over the reins:



I've put net points in solid red (because that's what counts), goals for in dashed red, goals against in dashed blue, and combined GF/GA in dashed purple.

Klopp's first two matches in Matches 9 and 10 against Tottenham and Southampton which both ended in disappointing draws from prior season wins. 

I'm calling those two matches a bedding in period for Klopp and the new coaching staff, and move on.

It's a small sample size, but the last 4 matches have yielded us +5 points, and +8 GD over last season's results.

Our attacking is inconsistent, as before, but our defensive improvement looks steady:  We've given up a goal less per match in our last 4 matches than last season's equivalent results.

Edit:  Then again, I could have said pretty much the same thing about our first 3 matches of the season   Time will tell.

[Fluke]

Here is the season-to-go looking at it from a title race perspective.

2 of the last 3 seasons, the title winner has been leading at this stage in the season.
The title winners all had 2.0 ppg after 14 matches, and maintained this over the course of the remainder of the season. (We were just under 2.0 ppg in 2013/4 after 14).

Despite all of our optimism under the new manager, I think it highly unlikely that we'll get into the fight for 1st.... seems to me to be between the two Manc teams, sadly.

Hi, I've been away a while and the 'to go' thing wasn't part of this thread when I last read it (that I can remember), so please forgive my ignorance.  I can dig back through the thread for when it is explained if it's a long explanation.  I presume though that it is basically saying, "here are the games already played, and if we apply the results from last season for the remainder, here is the final total".  Is that even close?  (The other thing that is confusing to me, is this thread used to do two different comparisons, equivalent fixture (eg away at united) and time (eg match day 10), though I assume that these all refer to equivalent fixture as that makes more sense.

Anyway, my question: I'm struggling to understand why we think this comparison would be useful right now?  What I mean is, we are seeing a very different LFC come out under Klopp, which will only become more prominent as the season progresses, so wouldn't an analysis based on form under Rodgers be less useful?

Don't get me wrong, I see a lot of value in these analyses (I enjoy following this in conjunction with the APLT), but I find it hard to reconcile how we can only be considered scraping 4th when we are within 6 points of top, etc. I would expect form under Klopp could be drastically different (for better or worse).

That said, if there are examples of this scenario playing out and the same outcomes were reached that would be very interesting. For example, if united held true to form with their recent manager changes.

Genuinely very interested to both understand this method better and hear your thoughts on that.

[Hunts Cross]

Here is the season-to-go looking at it from a title race perspective.

2 of the last 3 seasons, the title winner has been leading at this stage in the season.
The title winners all had 2.0 ppg after 14 matches, and maintained this over the course of the remainder of the season. (We were just under 2.0 ppg in 2013/4 after 14).

Despite all of our optimism under the new manager, I think it highly unlikely that we'll get into the fight for 1st.... seems to me to be between the two Manc teams, sadly.

To be in the fight, we would need a run and PPG close to the 'Suarez' season of 13/14.

[rickardinho1]

To be in the fight, we would need a run and PPG close to the 'Suarez' season of 13/14.

To be in the fight we need to reach around 80 points. We currently have 23 points, so we need 57 points from our remaining 24 games, which is 2.375 points/game. Probably a little too high to be realistic, though we do have the hardest 7 fixtures out of the way which improves our odds significantly.

[Hunts Cross]

To be in the fight we need to reach around 80 points. We currently have 23 points, so we need 57 points from our remaining 24 games, which is 2.375 points/game. Probably a little too high to be realistic, though we do have the hardest 7 fixtures out of the way which improves our odds significantly.

The thing is, one of the 'usuals' should be running away with this league, yet no-one is. The fact that we had a flat start, a change of manager, played the top 5 away in the first 13 games and yet we are only six off the top helps me believe we could be in the mix.

We are at the start of what could become a good run. If we can continue through the next handful of very winnable games, and then do well in home games against Arsenal and ManU in January, I would expect to see us right up there.

The improved defence under Klopp, with us conceding about 1 goal fewer per game, and with Sturridge released from his bubble suit and return to the field (we score about 1 goal more when Sturridge plays) encourages me.

We were 8 points off the top when Klopp came. He is only beginning to get his ideas over. He has recovered 2 points in six games and he believes there is still a lot of improvement to come in this squad. You can see why he was so angry by that loss to Palace, as we would otherwise now be only 3 points off top.

Maybe the Results Comparisom and the APLT do not yet reveal the improving prospects under Klopp, and then again, maybe I'm a believer/dreamer. Time will tell.

[JP-65]

The thing is, one of the 'usuals' should be running away with this league, yet no-one is. The fact that we had a flat start, a change of manager, played the top 5 away in the first 13 games and yet we are only six off the top helps me believe we could be in the mix.

We are at the start of what could become a good run. If we can continue through the next handful of very winnable games, and then do well in home games against Arsenal and ManU in January, I would expect to see us right up there.

The improved defence under Klopp, with us conceding about 1 goal fewer per game, and with Sturridge released from his bubble suit and return to the field (we score about 1 goal more when Sturridge plays) encourages me.

We were 8 points off the top when Klopp came. He is only beginning to get his ideas over. He has recovered 2 points in six games and he believes there is still a lot of improvement to come in this squad. You can see why he was so angry by that loss to Palace, as we would otherwise now be only 3 points off top.

Maybe the Results Comparisom and the APLT do not yet reveal the improving prospects under Klopp, and then again, maybe I'm a believer/dreamer. Time will tell.

HC, we have not picked up any points to City or Arsenal and lost 1 to Spurs & United....FWIW

[JP-65]

To be in the fight, we would need a run and PPG close to the 'Suarez' season of 13/14.

For sure, possible, but it would be extraordinary if it happens.

[JP-65]

Hi, I've been away a while and the 'to go' thing wasn't part of this thread when I last read it (that I can remember), so please forgive my ignorance.  I can dig back through the thread for when it is explained if it's a long explanation.  I presume though that it is basically saying, "here are the games already played, and if we apply the results from last season for the remainder, here is the final total".  Is that even close?  (The other thing that is confusing to me, is this thread used to do two different comparisons, equivalent fixture (eg away at united) and time (eg match day 10), though I assume that these all refer to equivalent fixture as that makes more sense.

Fluke.

The season to go has always been provided by me in the yearly threads (other than last season when I didn't do any posts). 
It simply takes the current points total and forces out what's required to get to a predetermined final points total.  It's then easy to compare what's required vs what's been accomplished,  and with the history you can assess it's feasibility.

When I was doing my weekly updates, I provided two basic analyses, an equivalent match one & a time one.  Zabadoh, who's done a good job of keeping this thread running over the past couple of years, provides an equivalent match one.

[JP-65]

Fluke, Finkelstein in The Times, did a statistical analysis on in-season managerial change & it's impact on results.

If you're interested in this, you may want to do a search on The Times website, but if I remember it correctly, it said that in the majority of cases, if there was any impact at all,  it was short term.
Rarely, the new manager has a transformational impact, but it's also rare that a manager of Klopp's quality is hired mid-stream.

[JP-65]

I find it hard to reconcile how we can only be considered scraping 4th when we are within 6 points of top, etc. I would expect form under Klopp could be drastically different (for better or worse).

Klopp has improved us already, our ppg for the 6 league matches is 1.83 (and a fairly testing set of fixtures). 
For us to be a serious contender for the title, not only do we have to perform at a very high level for the rest of the season, we need all 4 of our main competitors to continue to perform sub-optimally, this is unlikely, you'd have to expect at least one to start to perform more strongly as well.

I'd argue that one team starting to perform more strongly, tends to encourage their competitor's to do the same.  So if we do go on a good run, I'd expect one or two others to match us somewhat.

So, if 85 points is required to win the title, a lower than usual total (but titles have been won with less), then for it to be us, we'd have to perform at a level that is greater than our 2013/4 results, and is a level rarely achieved in the history of the PL (it's 100 points for a season!)

[McrRed]

Just wanted to say how much I enjoy this (and APLT) thread.

Thanks everyone.