Author Topic: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy  (Read 78057 times)

Offline IndianaRed

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #960 on: March 28, 2012, 09:36:27 pm »
One thing that concerns me is, the coirrellation between what a team spends in wages and where they end up on the ladder at the end of a season, on the back of us looking to cut wages. Of course I dont think we should be spending money for no reason, but its going to be harder to close the gap on the opposition, even when we were spending a heap on wages to attract the top talent. For me the jury is still out on our new owners, if only because they're very new, just something that has crossd my mind a few times this season, since from memory we're about par.

Again, they've never said they were trying to cut wages.  They said they wanted to grow the wage bill, and I can find you a quote from Tom Werner on that if I must....

"We have a very high wage bill and it shouldn't be such that we are 12th in the league right now. I don't want to get the wage bill down, I want it to increase and we have the resources to do that ... but we are not going to be making decisions which do not improve the fortunes of the club long term."

http://www.nesn.com/2011/01/tom-werner-says-luis-suarez-type-fee-is-affordable-looking-to-increase-liverpool-wage-bill.html

Offline IndianaRed

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #961 on: March 28, 2012, 09:54:06 pm »
Except i's a complete fallacy to say there's less risk buying players with premier league experience. It's an absolute myth.

Im a saddo, but not sad enough to compile a list of every single transfer in premier league history. I am definately sad enough to compile a list of players we've bought from the premier league since the turn of the century. Here's what our "less risk" approach did for us:

1) Heskey 11m
2) Barmby 6m
3) Arphexad free
4) Mcallister free
5) Ziege 5m
6) Kirkland 8m
7) Xavier free
8) Kewell 5m
9) Finnan 5m
10) Crouch 7m
11) Fowler free
12) Zenden free
13) Pennant 7m
14) Bellamy 7m
15) Benayoun 5m
16) Keane 20m
17) Johnson 17m
18) Cole free
19) Konchesky 5m
20) Carroll 35m
21) Adam 6m
22) Henderson 14m
23) Downing 20m
24) Enrique 6m

How many successes from that list? How many actually had no risk involved?

And, how many actually "hit the ground running"? Can think of only Johnson, Enrique and Kewell. Finnan was better in his 2nd season, Yossi and Emile too. Gary Mac and Crouch bloomed later on in the season.

The only ones that matter are the last five of them because those are the only ones who were bought with a specific interest in minimizing risk by buying PL-experienced.  That said, 1 in 5 (so far) being a successful minimum-risk buy isn't a good record.  To me though, like I've said before, whether they turn out to be good players or not after being bought doesn't have a bearing on how you assess the risk in buying players before you've bought them.  If there is evidence that a player has played well in a particular league before, you'd have to say there is less risk to sign that player to play in that league again than to sign a player who has never played in that league before (unless the foreign-based player has established himself thoroughly in other ways - like Aguero for example: everyone knew he'd be fine in the PL).  Anyway, I don't think FSG and Comolli will stick with that strategy.  They'll take more and different risks when buying players in the future.  They are smart enough to not allow themselves to repeat mistakes and their strategy will change.

And once again I've never said any player has ever had no risk involved.  There is always some level of risk even with the players from the domestic league.  All I've ever said is there's less risk, not no risk.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2012, 09:57:30 pm by IndianaRed »

Offline JackWard33

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #962 on: March 28, 2012, 10:18:11 pm »
Again, they've never said they were trying to cut wages.  They said they wanted to grow the wage bill, and I can find you a quote from Tom Werner on that if I must....

"We have a very high wage bill and it shouldn't be such that we are 12th in the league right now. I don't want to get the wage bill down, I want it to increase and we have the resources to do that ... but we are not going to be making decisions which do not improve the fortunes of the club long term."

http://www.nesn.com/2011/01/tom-werner-says-luis-suarez-type-fee-is-affordable-looking-to-increase-liverpool-wage-bill.html

probably best to judge them by actions rather than their statements given our ownership history
there's a quote from Henry saying he knows we have to match the top clubs wage bills to succeed as well but the bottom line is that they've substantially cut it so far (or will do once some of the loanees are off the books) so we'll see what they do from here

Offline Blade

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #963 on: March 28, 2012, 10:33:06 pm »
What a bizarre thing to say. All I'm doing is reading back what the book says. And the fundamental point of the book is that the application of the principles described in the book (not the half-arsed bollocks being touted around English football) is that they were effective.

No doubt that the principles of Moneyball were effective in baseball, but as I have said, that is only a small fraction of the entire sports economics science that has developed (especially in the USA) over the decades. Once again, I warmly recommend that you read "The Wages of Wins". The book is based on serious research, but it is written in a very entertaining and educative way. Also, it covers several professional sports, so you might find much more similarities with our game of football.

Offline Vulmea

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #964 on: March 28, 2012, 10:36:39 pm »
The only ones that matter are the last five of them because those are the only ones who were bought with a specific interest in minimizing risk by buying PL-experienced.  That said, 1 in 5 (so far) being a successful minimum-risk buy isn't a good record.  To me though, like I've said before, whether they turn out to be good players or not after being bought doesn't have a bearing on how you assess the risk in buying players before you've bought them.  If there is evidence that a player has played well in a particular league before, you'd have to say there is less risk to sign that player to play in that league again than to sign a player who has never played in that league before (unless the foreign-based player has established himself thoroughly in other ways - like Aguero for example: everyone knew he'd be fine in the PL).  Anyway, I don't think FSG and Comolli will stick with that strategy.  They'll take more and different risks when buying players in the future.  They are smart enough to not allow themselves to repeat mistakes and their strategy will change.

And once again I've never said any player has ever had no risk involved.  There is always some level of risk even with the players from the domestic league.  All I've ever said is there's less risk, not no risk.

think this is spot on - especially the live and learn idea - its should be that prem experience is beneficial - it should intuitively be easier to settle - same language, culture, weather, settling your family, understand the way the game is played, the physicality, the number of games, the referee's - it must reduce risk and if you are rebuilding the squad and signing half a dozen players minimising the risk and trying to get players to settle early takes an even higher priority

however I think we've seen it should be treated as just one of a number of factors and its weighting needs consideration - I do believe if we had got the results earlier in the season the confidence that would have bred would have meant all of the players settled easier and the shirt would not have seemed as big as it does for some of the lads

what clearly needs more consideration is how the player will handle the weight of expectation that playing for us brings with it - big fish in little pond does not even translate to standard player in big team.
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Offline steveeastend

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #965 on: March 28, 2012, 10:44:32 pm »
As for Torres - that is exactly the point. People didn't think he was whatever enough for the PL. They were wrong Benitez was right.
It is easy for me with hindsight to say that Torres was a good moneyball signing, but the fact remains that he was. I echo the other posters who said that Benitez's transfers (when he had the funds) seem to be moneyball-esque. People didn't know Torres would be a success, our scouts knew better. We need to repeat that. We need to take advantage of the ignorance and parochial nature of English football. Some people genuinely think that Barca would struggle against Stoke on a cold wet blah blah. We can steal the march on our rivals by identifying talent that others won't look at because they think that Johnny Foreigner can't adapt.

I couldn´t agree more.
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Offline IndianaRed

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #966 on: March 28, 2012, 10:57:21 pm »
probably best to judge them by actions rather than their statements given our ownership history
there's a quote from Henry saying he knows we have to match the top clubs wage bills to succeed as well but the bottom line is that they've substantially cut it so far (or will do once some of the loanees are off the books) so we'll see what they do from here

I don't know about that.  I bet our wage bill is pretty similar to what it was two Januarys ago.

(Guesses)
Torres - 120k
Babel - 40k
Cole - 90k
Aquilani - 70k
Degen - 30k
El Zhar - 16k
Poulsen - 70k
Konchesky - 40k
Kyrgiakos - 40k
Meireles - 30k
Jovanovic - 70k
Cavalieri - 25k?
Ngog - 20k
= 661k

Carroll - 70k
Downing - 65k
Henderson - 40k
Adam - 50k
Suarez - 80k
Bellamy - 70k
Enrique - 45k
Coates - 25k
Cole - 45k
Doni - 30k?
= 520k

so by those guesses we're off of what we were paying by about 2 reasonably good players.  we'll see what happens.. we have all kinds of sponsor money coming up. 

Offline chris18lfc

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #967 on: March 28, 2012, 11:29:35 pm »

And if an idiot like me, with no football experience living 5 hours away in Beirut, knows that then what the fuck does that say about our director of football.

According to Tony Evans it was Kenny who laid out the "Prem Proven" strategy.

And according to Paul Tomkins;

"Also, I don’t believe buying from the Premier League increases the chances of players succeeding – I can see no correlation in the data (2,000 transfers since 1995) to show that it’s true.

What is true is that you get flops and successes from these shores, and flops and successes from abroad.

If anything, bigger clubs seem to have a slightly better success rate from abroad, but as with everything, it’s the individual’s characteristics that matter, with a good slice of luck thrown in (i.e. don’t break your leg in your first game)."

Offline Blade

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #968 on: March 28, 2012, 11:36:47 pm »

Just for comparison, here is the list of players with PL experience that Comolli has signed in his 3 years at Tottenham:

Danny Murphy
Jermaine Jenas
Steed Malbranque
Pascal Chimbonda
Darren Bent
Jonathan Woodgate
David Bentley
Vedran Corluka

Offline JohnHenrysIceCreamCone

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #969 on: March 28, 2012, 11:38:11 pm »
No doubt that the principles of Moneyball were effective in baseball

Could you name some examples? Particularly with Henry and the Red Sox?
« Last Edit: March 28, 2012, 11:48:30 pm by JohnHenrysIceCreamCone »

Offline AJG

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #970 on: March 28, 2012, 11:40:03 pm »
Just for comparison, here is the list of players with PL experience that Comolli has signed in his 3 years at Tottenham:

Danny Murphy
Jermaine Jenas
Steed Malbranque
Pascal Chimbonda
Darren Bent
Jonathan Woodgate
David Bentley
Vedran Corluka

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #971 on: March 28, 2012, 11:40:14 pm »
Could you name some examples? Particularly with Henry and the Red Sox?
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Offline Blade

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #972 on: March 29, 2012, 12:00:04 am »
Could you name some examples? Particularly with Henry and the Red Sox?

Well, the Boston Red Sox do have Bill James (the founder of the sabermetrics) as the senior advisor on baseball operations since 2003, so it is safe to assume that he has had a big influence on their success in the past decade.

Offline JohnHenrysIceCreamCone

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #973 on: March 29, 2012, 12:13:24 am »
So there is no doubt Moneyball is effective in baseball because the Red Sox hired a guy?

Offline Nessy76

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #974 on: March 29, 2012, 02:23:16 am »
I'm fairly skeptical about stats in football. Some are obviously useful but there are some players who's stats are probably underwhelming. Lucas and Hamann would look very ineffective in terms of chance creation. How could you quantify Hyypia when he played in a mediocre dutch team. His stats wouldn't relate to playing in the premiership. Maybe this is why we largely went for premiership players.

I don't think anyone is suggesting using chance creation as a way to assess defensive midfielders, where does that come from?
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Offline IndianaRed

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #975 on: March 29, 2012, 02:38:28 am »
Just for comparison, here is the list of players with PL experience that Comolli has signed in his 3 years at Tottenham:

Danny Murphy
Jermaine Jenas
Steed Malbranque
Pascal Chimbonda
Darren Bent
Jonathan Woodgate
David Bentley
Vedran Corluka

those players again [presumably] weren't bought with the specific interest of minimizing risk by buying PL-experienced in mind.  just like all of liverpool's PL-experienced purchases before FSG's time, they are irrelevant.

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #976 on: March 29, 2012, 06:39:20 am »
So there is no doubt Moneyball is effective in baseball because the Red Sox hired a guy?

Have you read the book? It's full of examples.
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Offline nocturnalvin

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #977 on: March 29, 2012, 06:41:02 am »
No hard stats to prove it, but i'd imagine buying a player from a team consistently playing in CL has more correlation of success than the country of origin.

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #978 on: March 29, 2012, 07:51:31 am »
If there's no stats it's not Moneyball. Reading through the Comolli piece a few posts back his thinking is more in line with the old-school scouts in Chapter 2 of the book than Beane and DePodesta. If you can't strip out the subjective and come up with a measure that's meaningful, reproducible and subject to scientific control, then buying 'Premier-proven' players is just a hunch.

What people seem to be doing here is cherry-picking the evidence and fudging the theory to fit. in fact, I'd go the opposite way and suggest that 'Premier-proven' is a perfect example of a subjective factor that prevents proper objective analysis of a player.
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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #979 on: March 29, 2012, 08:47:24 am »
Another book to throw into the mix, flagged up to me by the illustrious Paul Grech (pawlu on here), is "The Extra 2%", which focusses on the Tampa Bay Rays and their application of the principles Alan's talking about in practice (to doing what the A's never managed to do, which is win the World Series).

http://extra2percent.com/

http://www.scribd.com/RHPG/d/46657276-THE-EXTRA-2-Sneak-Peek

Offline Didi_ram

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #980 on: March 29, 2012, 09:15:31 am »
Comolli on Enrique just after signing:

What sort of qualities will he bring to the team?

"The first thing that comes to my mind is his pace. He is a very quick, strong and powerful athlete with good technique, as you would expect from someone who comes from Spain, and a good left foot. He will give us some size as well because he is about 6ft 1ins, which is a very good size for a full-back. So all of this and signing a player that is already in the Premier League means we know he will settle in very easily. He is good friends with Andy (Carroll) from their Newcastle days, so he ticks a lot of boxes."

http://www.liverpoolfc.tv/news/latest-news/comolli-he-s-one-of-the-best

Comolli on Jordan Henderson and general transfer strategy just after JH signing:

There is talk of us targeting the best young English talent this summer - is that the strategy?

"Yes and no. It's not because a player is English and young that we are going to go for him. We go for a player because he ticks all the boxes. It's what we need at this time in this window. If a player is English or British or has played in the Premier League we'll look at that over someone who is abroad but it could be any nationality as long as they tick the boxes and is what we need for this window and going forward."

http://www.liverpoolfc.tv/news/latest-news/our-transfer-strategy

Comolli after signing Adam:

He was nominated for Player of the Season in 2010-11 - but have we seen the best of Charlie Adam yet? How much room is there for him to improve?

"I think he can improve because with age comes experience. He had the first year in the Premier League, and with more experience he's going to understand the game in the Premier League more. Also, training on a daily basis with the quality of player we have here will stretch him as a player - physically, mentally and tactically. Training with the best helps you to become better - and I think that's what we're going to see."

http://www.liverpoolfc.tv/news/latest-news/comolli-on-adam-and-transfers

Comolli on Downing after signing:

So with Jordan Henderson, Charlie Adam, Alexander Doni and Stewart Downing signed up, this is turning into a really productive summer for Liverpool, isn't it?

"Yes. What we are very pleased about is that we are still early in July. We've played only one game pre-season, and we've got a lot of players in. That will allow Steve (Clarke), Kevin (Keen) and Kenny to work well with the players straight away and not have to wait until the end of August, like sometimes you have to do. It's good for team building and it's good for the tactical work they have to do. Also, the players are from the Premier League, so we know they will settle in quickly at the club. Jordan is coming back on Monday and he can't wait."

http://www.liverpoolfc.tv/news/latest-news/he-s-a-big-big-signing-for-lfc

Comolli on Bellamy after signing:

Interviewer: And he's a player of vast Premier League experience...

DC:  "Yes, Premier League experience, Champions League experience, the fact that he played here before so he knows what to expect and knows the place. He's a perfect fit."

http://www.liverpoolfc.tv/news/latest-news/craig-has-the-qualities-we-need
Well,that certainly speaks for us this season.If after that backfired,we still continue to do that next season,we are in for trouble.Taking players like Coates,Cabaye,Ba,Ben Arfa,Hernandez as some examples,it isnt hard to see that a British spine can be complemented with bargain buys from abroad.For example,players from obscure leagues like Matias Suarez from Anderlecht or even that striker Jackson Martinez for example could be categorized as players worth taking the risk on,based on their stats.They arent PL proven,but for most teams they are an unknown proposition.I'd deffo say that the team really gambling on the prospect of cheap,quality buys is Newcastle.

Offline Pawlu

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #981 on: March 29, 2012, 10:14:18 am »
At the Red Sox, FSG have done what any good business does: seen an idea that works (in this case the application of Sabremetrics at the Oakland As) and applied it in their own model through the appointment of people like Bill James and Theo Epstein.  But, as with any good business, that isn't the only thing they did in order to achieve success.  If you really want to read something that goes over what FSG have done, I'd suggest 'Mind Game: How The Boston Red Sox Got Smart, Won a World Series, and Created a New Blueprint for Winning’ by Steve Goldman.

And, if you don't want to read that, here's a piece I did highlighting the key points that emerge from it and which could be translated to Liverpool: http://www.aliverpoolthing.com/2011/01/what-i-learned-about-liverpools-owners.html

Also, if people are so hell bent on discussing Liverpool's strategy after barely 18 months, they have to include the likes of Joao Texeira and Jordon Ibe (as an aside, Ibe is really, really good: watch him play if you can.  His maturity and consistency are impressive) in the picture.  Both of the players were signed for relatively big money given their age and experience but for spare change when you consider the overall budget.  These are the low risk, high potential upside that is typical of FSG's methodology (don't like calling it the Moneyball strategy as it is more than that).

PS - Not to sound condescending but people should really read Moneyball.  The movie doesn't count: that is a movie, not a documentary.  But don't stop there.  Read more books about the impact of Sabremetrics and also the use of Wall Street strategies in sport.  The Extra 2% that Royhendo mentioned is a good start.  Indeed, if people have more examples, I'd love to hear of them.

Offline Brentieke

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #982 on: March 29, 2012, 10:14:47 am »

And once again I've never said any player has ever had no risk involved.  There is always some level of risk even with the players from the domestic league.  All I've ever said is there's less risk, not no risk.

In theory, there should be less risk, I agree.

In reality, there's just as much risk.

Look at the business on 31st of January 2011.

Luis Suarez, no premier league experience, discount in price, complete success.

Fernando Torres, premier league experience, markup on price, complete flop.

Andy Carroll, premier league experience, markup on price, complete flop.

And, of course, Torres, when he came to us with no premier league experience, was a complete success.

Theory says it should minimize risk. In reality, having premier league experience means nothing when you come to Liverpool.

No amount of game time at the likes of Villa, Sunderland and Birmingham can prepare you for the pressure and scrutiny you will endure during your time at Anfield. You need to have huge shoulders to be able to whistand the 24/7 media analysis of your performances and the worldwide fanbase analyzing your every step.

For way too long, we've bought players for huge markups from average teams because they've "proved they can do it in the league". And for too long, we've watched these players shrink the minute they wear the Red Shirt. We need to move away from the whole "prem proven minimizes risk" lark into the "broad shoulders and winning mentality" business. Those are the sort of players where there's little risk- not the formers.
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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #983 on: March 29, 2012, 10:40:17 am »
In theory, there should be less risk, I agree.

In reality, there's just as much risk.

Look at the business on 31st of January 2011.

Luis Suarez, no premier league experience, discount in price, complete success.

Fernando Torres, premier league experience, markup on price, complete flop.

Andy Carroll, premier league experience, markup on price, complete flop.

And, of course, Torres, when he came to us with no premier league experience, was a complete success.

Theory says it should minimize risk. In reality, having premier league experience means nothing when you come to Liverpool.

No amount of game time at the likes of Villa, Sunderland and Birmingham can prepare you for the pressure and scrutiny you will endure during your time at Anfield. You need to have huge shoulders to be able to whistand the 24/7 media analysis of your performances and the worldwide fanbase analyzing your every step.

For way too long, we've bought players for huge markups from average teams because they've "proved they can do it in the league". And for too long, we've watched these players shrink the minute they wear the Red Shirt. We need to move away from the whole "prem proven minimizes risk" lark into the "broad shoulders and winning mentality" business. Those are the sort of players where there's little risk- not the formers.

So when Morientes says - I dont like the City, or Dossena goes from being an international left back to a pub player because nobody can talk to him - there's no significant risk?

When you say just as much risk - its possible Carroll does not like the City- but as much risk? weather, climate, culture, language - its a bigger risk for players coming from abroad - how much bigger and how significant is the issue. Dossena got married minutes before arriving didn't sound like good timing to me. Morientes we had to pursue and was never convincing that he wanted to come - warning signs for both. its the commitment to the idea thats the important thing I guess. Carroll's move it has to be said equally unconvincing when he comes out in teh paper saying I didn't want to move.

If Torres had failed - got off to a poor start - the pressure would have piled on saying he was not suitable for the prem - plenty of experts including the whole Man United scouting system said he wasn't robust enough for the prem and they'd have made it a self fulfilling prophecy. Lucas showed immense mental strength to overcome that type of prejudice - so its clear mental strength ios the key determinant.

How do you measure that 'mental strength' though - its nigh on impossible.

What we could look for is observations of how that mental strength manifests itself. Achievement is one criteria I guess. Another may be simple hard work - how does a player apply himself in a game. They are examples of the 'stats' which may be significant and if we could steal a march on our competitors in the psychological area that could give us an edge.


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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #984 on: March 29, 2012, 10:59:04 am »
Indeed, if people have more examples, I'd love to hear of them.

People should follow the likes of you and Dan Kennett on twitter for starters I think Paul. But the ones that spring to mind immediately are investment and business-related books, not sports-related ones, because at the root of it all is the notion of unrecognised value.

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #985 on: March 29, 2012, 11:06:05 am »
I don't know about that.  I bet our wage bill is pretty similar to what it was two Januarys ago.

(Guesses)
Torres - 120k
Babel - 40k
Cole - 90k
Aquilani - 70k
Degen - 30k
El Zhar - 16k
Poulsen - 70k
Konchesky - 40k
Kyrgiakos - 40k
Meireles - 30k
Jovanovic - 70k
Cavalieri - 25k?
Ngog - 20k
= 661k

Carroll - 70k
Downing - 65k
Henderson - 40k
Adam - 50k
Suarez - 80k
Bellamy - 70k
Enrique - 45k
Coates - 25k
Cole - 45k
Doni - 30k?
= 520k

so by those guesses we're off of what we were paying by about 2 reasonably good players.  we'll see what happens.. we have all kinds of sponsor money coming up. 

You do realise that your difference equates to £7.5 million pounds a season, not insubstantial.

The first wave of ins/outs has moved us to a more "effective" payroll, which will be furthered this summer (i.e. highly payed, infrequent performers will be moved out, such as Maxi, Aurelio and others out on loan such as Cole etc).  This clearing of "deadwood" is crucial, some will be replaced by lower payed promoted reserves/youth players, the others by a few, well remunerated purchases.

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #986 on: March 29, 2012, 11:57:02 am »
You do realise that your difference equates to £7.5 million pounds a season, not insubstantial.

The first wave of ins/outs has moved us to a more "effective" payroll, which will be furthered this summer (i.e. highly payed, infrequent performers will be moved out, such as Maxi, Aurelio and others out on loan such as Cole etc).  This clearing of "deadwood" is crucial, some will be replaced by lower payed promoted reserves/youth players, the others by a few, well remunerated purchases.
Arguably it is only half the story as far as the P&L goes though. We spent over 100m on acquisitions so our amortization charge will increase by 20m. This will be offset somewhat (by about 12m) as the amortization of players who have been sold - most notably Torres and Aquilani (who were almost fully amortized) and Meireles (a recent acquisition) - drop out of the accounts.

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #987 on: March 29, 2012, 12:07:15 pm »
Arguably it is only half the story as far as the P&L goes though. We spent over 100m on acquisitions so our amortization charge will increase by 20m. This will be offset somewhat (by about 12m) as the amortization of players who have been sold - most notably Torres and Aquilani (who were almost fully amortized) and Meireles (a recent acquisition) - drop out of the accounts.

non cash impact though.

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #988 on: March 29, 2012, 12:21:59 pm »
I'm back here after posting on another forum, the statistics says Carroll is worth 35 million, when he plays the team earn 2.0 points per game. That's 3rd place over a course of the season. Apart from that Comolli's statistical based buys have been shocking.
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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #989 on: March 29, 2012, 12:24:36 pm »
I'm back here after posting on another forum, the statistics says Carroll is worth 35 million, when he plays the team earn 2.0 points per game. That's 3rd place over a course of the season. Apart from that Comolli's statistical based buys have been shocking.

why doesn't he start every single game when fit?

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #990 on: March 29, 2012, 12:40:16 pm »
Could you name some examples? Particularly with Henry and the Red Sox?

I can think of more examples of people the Red Sox and Henry haven't signed because the money offered by other teams outweighed what statistics told them they were worth. That said, they've splashed out on two very expensive flops in the last two years that suggest they may be willing to work outside the Moneyball idea.

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #991 on: March 29, 2012, 01:06:55 pm »
As a Layman and not a finance whizz kid I think all signings are a gamble , you can try to get a system in place that might minimise the risk but even then the transfer market which by its nature has to be a total gamble on any player being able to fit in and play to their strengths.

 Moneyball might give you this thesis but humans are fallible and so no system is foolproof no matter how scientific the notion!
« Last Edit: March 29, 2012, 01:40:21 pm by geoffstrong »
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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #992 on: March 29, 2012, 01:31:37 pm »
So when Morientes says - I dont like the City, or Dossena goes from being an international left back to a pub player because nobody can talk to him - there's no significant risk?

When you say just as much risk - its possible Carroll does not like the City- but as much risk? weather, climate, culture, language - its a bigger risk for players coming from abroad - how much bigger and how significant is the issue. Dossena got married minutes before arriving didn't sound like good timing to me. Morientes we had to pursue and was never convincing that he wanted to come - warning signs for both. its the commitment to the idea thats the important thing I guess. Carroll's move it has to be said equally unconvincing when he comes out in teh paper saying I didn't want to move.

If Torres had failed - got off to a poor start - the pressure would have piled on saying he was not suitable for the prem - plenty of experts including the whole Man United scouting system said he wasn't robust enough for the prem and they'd have made it a self fulfilling prophecy. Lucas showed immense mental strength to overcome that type of prejudice - so its clear mental strength ios the key determinant.

How do you measure that 'mental strength' though - its nigh on impossible.

What we could look for is observations of how that mental strength manifests itself. Achievement is one criteria I guess. Another may be simple hard work - how does a player apply himself in a game. They are examples of the 'stats' which may be significant and if we could steal a march on our competitors in the psychological area that could give us an edge.




That's interesting question: how do you measure mental strength?

You've made me think a bit on this.

I supposed the best way is to scout the players- and scout them a lot.

See how they react when they go a goal behind. See how they react when the crowd is on the team's back. See how they react to losing a game. So they accept it and move on or do they fight to avoid losing and become sore losers if they do? Do they hide or are they pro active and demand the ball?

See if they have had any postions of leadership in their careers. A Kenny quote about Luis which I always mention: "He was the captain of Ajax at 22 and he's a foreigner. That's all I need to know about his mentality".

Alonso, Torres, Suarez, Gerrard etc all captained their sides at a young age. That's a pretty good marker for example.

Check their careers for challenges they've overcome. For example, someone scouting Lucas now would note how he overcame so much difficulties to insert himself as an untouchable starter in our first 11.

Ask around about the player. Ask previous managers and teammates. For example, Downing's teammates told me he was shithouse of a player. If an idiot like me living in Beirut knows this, how the fuck does our DOF not know it? And if he did, why was this not a clear sign that we should steer clear?

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #993 on: March 29, 2012, 02:00:11 pm »
Thats why rafa signed captains.
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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #994 on: March 29, 2012, 02:02:33 pm »
We need to move away from the whole "prem proven minimizes risk" lark into the "broad shoulders and winning mentality" business. Those are the sort of players where there's little risk- not the formers.

Yes.

Sounds like we might want to look at players who have gone to bigger clubs, been faced with bigger responsibility there, only to accept it and succeed.

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #995 on: March 29, 2012, 02:14:17 pm »
Yes.

Sounds like we might want to look at players who have gone to bigger clubs, been faced with bigger responsibility there, only to accept it and succeed.

I'd also like us to have a look at converted players who started top level football in one role, but can stand in their own right in another. The ideal way of getting properly allround players is to develop them ourselves. Failing that, looking at converted players is another way.
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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #996 on: March 29, 2012, 02:26:31 pm »
Moneyball might give you this thesis but humans are fallible and so no system is foolproof no matter how scientific the notion!

That's interesting question: how do you measure mental strength?

You've made me think a bit on this.

I supposed the best way is to scout the players- and scout them a lot.

See how they react when they go a goal behind. See how they react when the crowd is on the team's back. See how they react to losing a game. So they accept it and move on or do they fight to avoid losing and become sore losers if they do? Do they hide or are they pro active and demand the ball?

See if they have had any postions of leadership in their careers. A Kenny quote about Luis which I always mention: "He was the captain of Ajax at 22 and he's a foreigner. That's all I need to know about his mentality".

Alonso, Torres, Suarez, Gerrard etc all captained their sides at a young age. That's a pretty good marker for example.

Check their careers for challenges they've overcome. For example, someone scouting Lucas now would note how he overcame so much difficulties to insert himself as an untouchable starter in our first 11.

Ask around about the player. Ask previous managers and teammates. For example, Downing's teammates told me he was shithouse of a player. If an idiot like me living in Beirut knows this, how the fuck does our DOF not know it? And if he did, why was this not a clear sign that we should steer clear?
WE'd need to tell the scouts what to look for

Shanks famously said forget any player for 12 months after they get married - different times then but the idea of whats going on off the pitch being just as important isn't a new one

Its odd that we grab the lads by the balls and tell them to cough but we dont do any psychological stuff - whens the last medical to fail because a player was found to be mentally undercooked?

At the same time everybody is human you can't tell how people will react in any given circumstances to an extent its going to be a lottery but you can do yourself some favours I think

Take a player like Kuyt - hard working, maximising his talent - he might fail because of lack of quality but not because of determination and work ethic and
as we've seen quality should be easier to assess.

Which is why i'm back on my hobby horse about rebuilding the club in the image we want - a horrible, red grinding machine - a team, rather than a group of individuals, that works harder and fights for each other more than any other club. That works as hard off the ball as it does on it, that controls games by force of its personality as much as its football. That spits in the eye of the glamourous superstars, paying no respect to reputation and has team above the individual..............ah well I can dream


« Last Edit: March 29, 2012, 02:29:25 pm by Vulmea »
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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #997 on: March 29, 2012, 02:31:09 pm »


Which is why i'm back on my hobby horse about rebuilding the club in the image we want - a horrible, red grinding machine - a team, rather than a group of individuals, that works harder and fights for each other more than any other club. That works as hard off the ball as it does on it, that controls games by force of its personality as much as its football. That spits in the eye of the glamourous superstars, paying no respect to reputation and has team above the individual..............ah well I can dream


Sounds like Swansea.
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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #998 on: March 29, 2012, 03:04:35 pm »
Sounds like Swansea.

Swansea with an end product sounds like Barcelona!
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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #999 on: March 29, 2012, 03:07:35 pm »

Ah but he doesn't want glamourous superstars - unlike Barca.
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