Author Topic: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy  (Read 78060 times)

Offline Coady

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Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #840 on: March 2, 2012, 08:14:09 pm »
FSG have done nothing wrong. They have made money available. It's the people they have employed who spent the money wisely or not.
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Offline farawayred

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #841 on: March 2, 2012, 09:29:59 pm »
...in addition to the existing squad, especially as we are back in Europe.But this is the case since the early days of Rafa and probably won´t change this summer as well after Comollis latest statements.
I wouldn't mind 2-3 additional extra players, but that's up to club's financial folks. I wouldn't mind if the new recruits come as a replacement either. Fair enough pointing to the Europa League, but we have vary capable fringe players to field a full team. Assuming that Aurelio, Maxi and Kuyt may leave, we have Flano, Robinson, Kelly, Coates, Wilson, Spearing, Coady, Adam (not trying to stir controversy), Silva, Sterling, Ngoo, Morgan... All these need their chances, and to me this is the bigger reward that comes from the EL.   

EDIT: Before anyone complains, I'm not suggesting to play all these players in the same team; mix and match.
« Last Edit: March 2, 2012, 09:32:24 pm by farawayred »
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Offline rafathegaffa83

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #842 on: March 2, 2012, 10:40:16 pm »
One of those 'top players' may well be Keita, who we could already be talking to as he is in the last 6 months of his contract, and who will have probably had overtures from multiple clubs. So the whole statement from DC could just be that Keita's agent said he thought it was great we had won something and would be in Europe next year.

I can see Keita as a possibility. He's experienced and provides solid cover for Lucas. If Lucas struggles to regain his fitness by the beginning of next season, he would be able to step in. Wouldn't mind him on a 1-2 year deal

Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #843 on: March 2, 2012, 10:57:26 pm »
I can.

I didn't, as it happens, but I certainly could make the case. Enrique and Bellamy were underpriced. Downing overpriced. Adam and Henderson spot on. We brought in five players for under £50m. Good business when you need to rebuild the squad to the extent that we did. From now on I'd expect us to concentrate on quality over quantity (as Comolli has suggested).

He wasn't available for £10m. He cost £35m. It's done, move on. If you want the weight off his shoulders, stop going on about his price.

Seems obvious to me, unless I'm missing something?

Why would we send Spearing on loan? He's either good enough to play for us or he can move on for a decent price.
He'll be nearly 25 by the end of next season.
I like Hendo but 16M for him at this stage was over priced, for the net value spent you can say we did a good job bringing in the number of players we did but we could have done so much better with the money we had available and improved the quality in the squad to a much higher level than it is at now.

He was available for 35M doesn't mean we had to pay for an over valued player. Doesn't matter how much we overlook, the press won't so he will keep getting reminded about it.

Like Spearing but I think his career has been way too stop start if we did bring Keita in and sent Spearing and Shelvey on loan then we'd have Lucas, Gerrard, Keita, Adam, Henderson for CM positions. After 2 years we'd be looking to replace both Gerrard and Keita and the two players who would have gained experience on loan could definitely help in replacing those two players

Offline xavidub

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #844 on: March 2, 2012, 11:36:00 pm »
4 of our 5 main rivals will spend 40 to 80 million this summer. It looks as if we will fi ish below them this season. If we do not at least equal their spend we are unlikely to make top 4 next season either. The league generally corresponds closely to the table of spending each year.

As  I understand it, the moneyball philosophy doesnt necessarily mean not spending, just spending sensibly. Success in the modern game cant be done on the cheap.
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Offline TepidT2O

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #845 on: March 2, 2012, 11:37:15 pm »
4 of our 5 main rivals will spend 40 to 80 million this summer. It looks as if we will fi ish below them this season. If we do not at least equal their spend we are unlikely to make top 4 next season either. The league generally corresponds closely to the table of spending each year.

As  I understand it, the moneyball philosophy doesnt necessarily mean not spending, just spending sensibly. Success in the modern game cant be done on the cheap.
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Offline arthur sarnoff

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #846 on: March 2, 2012, 11:51:37 pm »


As  I understand it, the moneyball philosophy doesnt necessarily mean not spending, just spending sensibly. Success in the modern game cant be done on the cheap.

Actually, 'Moneyball', such as it is, is all about success on the cheap.  It's not really a guide for us though.

Offline Red_Rich

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #847 on: March 3, 2012, 12:13:53 am »
Success in the modern game cant be done on the cheap.

Name one Spurs player that cost them over £20m

They are a good example of what can be acheived by good loans (Adebayor) and other clubs' misfits (VDV)
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Offline lovestospooge

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #848 on: March 3, 2012, 12:19:12 am »
Actually, 'Moneyball', such as it is, is all about success on the cheap.

it's really not.

billy beane's application of using quantitative analysis to relatively overachieve with a financially limited oakland athletics squad is "moneyball".

FSG's approach tries to use the same principles of exploiting under- or unused metrics in making decisions in both boston and liverpool but neither organization is based off a "moneyball" manual or blueprint or whatever that forcibly states to spend the least amount possible.

Online JackWard33

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #849 on: March 3, 2012, 12:21:22 am »
Name one Spurs player that cost them over £20m

They are a good example of what can be acheived by good loans (Adebayor) and other clubs' misfits (VDV)

You're really stretching the point - Spurs have spent an awful lot in the last few years

...they've also won nothing and may yet finish outside the top 4

Offline Red_Rich

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #850 on: March 3, 2012, 12:24:43 am »
You're really stretching the point - Spurs have spent an awful lot in the last few years

Over a 5 or 6 year period, yes.  But they never spant massive in one big lump like we did last calendar year.

Anyway, while we mention Spurs, I think the maost important factor for us is getting 4th.  That changes EVERYTHING when it come to who we will get this summer.

CL football for us and we can easily get Hazard, Cavani etc just like City last year ... they get in the top 4 and bang!  Aguero, Nasri etc etc
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Offline arthur sarnoff

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #851 on: March 3, 2012, 12:30:47 am »
it's really not.

billy beane's application of using quantitative analysis to relatively overachieve with a financially limited oakland athletics squad is "moneyball".



That's pretty much what I said.  'Moneyball' is just a catchy title for a book about the Oakland A's achieving results that were better than their financial position suggested they should.  It's not some all-encompassing philosophy for all sports.

Online newterp

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #852 on: March 3, 2012, 12:32:26 am »
to keep Adebayor wont spurs likely have to pay 20M+?

Offline Redeo

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #853 on: March 3, 2012, 12:37:04 am »
Name one Spurs player that cost them over £20m

They are a good example of what can be acheived by good loans (Adebayor) and other clubs' misfits (VDV)
How much was Modric brought for?
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Offline Dmode101

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #854 on: March 3, 2012, 01:02:39 am »
Would say we need 4-5 players;

Cover for Lucas - he may not return same player. Even if he does, if he is injured/suspended we have no one to dictate tempo.

A partner for Lucas - Henderson is not ready, Adam not good enough, Gerrard's  better further forward.

A left winger - Downing not good enough, Bellamy's injury record.

Right winger - Henderson not ready, Kuyt not good enough.

Striker - Carroll not good enough

this is exactly how i feel about the situation. some fans here seemed more like FSG henchmen thinking alls rosy and henry did no wrong. look at our attacking players coming in  and those that have left or been pushed out and we see a regression. I will say being reasonable would be to bring in at least a top winger like hazard or lavazzi to salvage what we have undone last summer. a top CM is critical this time as gerrard isnt the player he used to be anymore. thats a minimum. If we pull up a squad player like adam again or an over inflated transfer fee on a downing kind who is in reality only worth 12m to 14m the most (bcos his salary wasn't demanding but lets pretend to boost his transfer fee to 20m to make the fans think the owners are paying top dollar). then good luck to liverpool.
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Offline Bobinhood

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #855 on: March 3, 2012, 01:10:33 am »
compared to the torres that scored what, 33 in his first season? The 50m rated striker? 2 Goals for FIFTY MILLION worth of ability and entertainment taken away from the fans. And saying that newcastle pegged the fee was genius and we all know carroll wasnt worth that much. poor carroll having to be caught in this crap arrangement!

Fixed your post.

Taken away from the fans?  I've been hugely entertained all year, watching ft just missing the hard shots, just missing the easy shots and especially, badly missing the sitters. Off the field, his huge contribution to Chelsea's downfall and internal feuding has been first rate, real top drawer stuff that divided  everyone from the owner and coach right down through the playing staff and on through to the fans. Talk of him being sold back to us at the deadline for 10 mill was a real kneeslapper at the time, and most recently i got a good chuckle out of his being dropped by Spain as unfit for purpose. All in all, excellent value for the entertainment dollar. Worth every peso imo.

Also fyi Carrolls going to be just unplayable in future. him and 15 mill for hows my hair is the steal of the century. pull your socks up lad.
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Offline Smug Cassandra

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #856 on: March 3, 2012, 01:10:47 am »
Would say we need 4-5 players;

Cover for Lucas - he may not return same player. Even if he does, if he is injured/suspended we have no one to dictate tempo.

A partner for Lucas - Henderson is not ready, Adam not good enough, Gerrard's  better further forward.

A left winger - Downing not good enough, Bellamy's injury record.

Right winger - Henderson not ready, Kuyt not good enough.

Striker - Carroll not good enough

Spot on. But you need to look at priorities.

1. Striker
2. Right Winger
3. Lucas Cover
4. Partner for Lucas
5. Left winger
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Offline Dmode101

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #857 on: March 3, 2012, 01:17:44 am »
for all the discussion. what is truly FGS final objective. I think all this sustainability footing out what we earn may sound noble and realistic. However, the latter part of the strategy begets the question of how do we retain those young players we bought at a lower price when big clubs come knocking? you may think we will keep these young players till their prime, but what if the likes of city and barcelona comes in halfway and offer top SALARIES. Our top young players will leave without a bat of an eyelid.

how do we address this stituation? the truth is we will never know but most certainly its all about the money and I can say if players leave before their prime or during their prime here but only for a while then effectively we are a SELLLING club just like what arsenal is going through. they will be there and abouts the top but never challenge for title because come summer they are always at trying to retain their top players. It chaos all over again. I bet we have a very adapt PR department just for transfer news.

if you can't pay top dollar for top talent or at least be near it, then what are talking about? just keeping liverpool the club alive and be respectably at the top half of the table every season until a dubai billionaire level finally comes in which we deserve? I think thats the end game and I believe we are in denial and bitter. We may curse the citys and chelseas of this world but its just that the stakes have been raised. You say we can't sustain with all this 200k salaries. how do you know what can rich people do and calculate all the revenue they can rake in globally from shirt sales to events? we are just bitter and thats all.
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Offline Dmode101

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #858 on: March 3, 2012, 01:22:24 am »
Fixed your post.

Taken away from the fans?  I've been hugely entertained all year, watching ft just missing the hard shots, just missing the easy shots and especially, badly missing the sitters. Off the field, his huge contribution to Chelsea's downfall and internal feuding has been first rate, real top drawer stuff that divided  everyone from the owner and coach right down through the playing staff and on through to the fans. Talk of him being sold back to us at the deadline for 10 mill was a real kneeslapper at the time, and most recently i got a good chuckle out of his being dropped by Spain as unfit for purpose. All in all, excellent value for the entertainment dollar. Worth every peso imo.

Also fyi Carrolls going to be just unplayable in future. him and 15 mill for hows my hair is the steal of the century. pull your socks up lad.

thats what I call bitter. yes, torres form has been shit and may never recover due to his injury. but thats not the point as for fans, true fans of liverpool, we deserve that level of attribute or close to bring another like striker. where is that player?!! who the fuck cares what happen to our former torres ladyboy? if you care or compare then you are just a bitter scorned lover. pathetic. If you read my previous post. I support carroll whole heartedly because he is one of us, and I believe he has enough attributes to be a dangerous striker IF used properly. But that doesnt mean we as fans cant see the drop iin standards of who we could have brought in better than carrol. or suarez. 50m dollars is the value we are looking not what happens to the player. eyes on the money.
« Last Edit: March 3, 2012, 01:30:53 am by Dmode101 »
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Offline Bobinhood

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #859 on: March 3, 2012, 01:54:15 am »
Eyes on the money: We made 15 million cash and 50K a week in salary and turned a 27 year old foreign speed guy with no speed left and 2 years on his papers into a 22 year old English monster with huge upside and a 5 year term. Our fierce competitor Roman Obramovitch  paid all the money, every penny, 35 to Mike ashley and 15 to us, screwing his team for the ffp rules about to come into effect. He was the only one in the world willing to spend that kind of money on slow torres and its proven to be a huge mistake. If we had not sold torres we would have no Carroll and a crock on the bench worth about 10 mill on a good day becouse hindsight shows that after the second operation he never came good again. We got so lucky he took that guy off our hands its unreal.

We made out like bandits.

You also presuppose that fsg are finished spending forever and the AC was our only chance for Striker Glory. Crying out loud man, they had a whole team to rebuild we had koncheskeys and poulsons all over the place.

Finally, to address your uncalled for shite: cracking a smile over the turncoats massive failure does not equate to obsessing over it as you profess. You seem to take things to logical extremes. Also,  dont you be telling me who the true fans are you fucking dick ive followed the Reds for 41 years now. You've got no right whatsoever to open your trap on that level you probably werent even born. I wasnt calling you out personally i was just noting with a little humour that the post you wrote was imo, shall we say kindly,  fucking stupid. Get a grip. Dont go telling people youve never met and know nothing about who is and isnt a fan of the team.

now i agree this much: we had turncoat # 1 and for a while he was the best striker in the world, and then we got turncoat # 2 and for a while he was the best striker in the world, and our history and our tradition of Fowlers and Rush's and Dalglish's , not to mention our crying need for goals at times this year, it would be nice if we bought a really good striker.

Given we had about 24 hours to work with when we got carroll i think we did well and nothing says we cant go get another striker as well.

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Offline Suareznumber7

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #860 on: March 3, 2012, 03:25:15 am »
This is a question that I am torn between but would like the opinion of other posters.


Do you think we should sell Andy and replace him with a top quality striker. Keep Andy as a squad  and bring in another young squad  striker, say along the lines of a Luuk De Jong. Or should we just keep and make him our first choice striker for next season.

I really think Kenny sees him as Liverpool's #9 for the foreseeable future. 

Offline ac

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #861 on: March 3, 2012, 12:03:11 pm »
So that's one midfielder and a utility forward, then?  ;)
Definitely don't need 2 midfielders. Even you have only described one player there, a partner/cover for Lucas. We're unlikely to play 2 holding players under Kenny and we've got Gerrard/Adam/Shelvey for the AM role plus Henderson/Spearing as general CM/box-to-box players. Adding two more gives us eight players in the middle of the pitch.

Don't need 2 wingers. I'd go for one on the left and let Henderson/Downing play wide right. Or you could get one for the right and play Downing/ Bellamy on the left.

Will have to agree to disagree - ultlimately I don't see the likes of Henderson, Downing, Spearing, Adam or Shelvey as reliable enough for a team with top 4 aspirations for this or next season.

I do however, take Vulmea's point about the promising youngsters coming through - perhaps just one winger is required because of Sterling for instance.

Saying that I still reckon we need @ least 4 players as our direct rivals will strengthen (Chelsea, Tottenham) & I doubt whether our starlets will be ready for regular for first team football next season. I'd prefer we bed these lads in slowly & to minimise the risk of burn out (ala Owen/Wilshere).

Offline aka_da_saus

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #862 on: March 23, 2012, 12:29:39 am »
Just watched moneyball for 1st time. I'm going to bed and I must read all of this thread plus more tomorrow evening after work. Now i know half the film probably got the hollywood treatment but Now here's a knee jerk,jump to conclusions question. What are the odds comoillis/Henry's idea was to go to Kenny with a short list of targets put together bye the money ball formula? And let him pick the player from the list he wanted ?
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Offline Luis7Suarez7

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #863 on: March 23, 2012, 12:33:36 am »
Just watched moneyball for 1st time. I'm going to bed and I must read all of this thread plus more tomorrow evening after work. Now i know half the film probably got the hollywood treatment but Now here's a knee jerk,jump to conclusions question. What are the odds comoillis/Henry's idea was to go to Kenny with a short list of targets put together bye the money ball formula? And let him pick the player from the list he wanted ?

I havent seen the film, but I remember JWH saying on twitter that the film was bullshit

Offline kvarmeismydad

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #864 on: March 23, 2012, 12:45:00 am »
I just watched the film too, enjoyed it. Was half expecting his assistant, played by Jonah Hill, to say something totally immature any moment like 'fuck my ass bro', but he played a straight role well. Apparently the real assistant would not allow them to use his name and was tall and skinny!

Decent film, although I don't think the methods translate in such a flowing game like football. You can see maybe Bellamy being a Moneyball signing that has produced, and maybe Downing and Adam being statistically impressive at thier previous clubs, yet not classed as successes.

I can also see Kenny being in the 'i can see a good player with my eye's' camp, and I'd tend to lean towards that in most cases. Stats can be misleading sometimes.

I'd like to think Comolli can suggest players that have been scouted heavily and are supported by stats, and Kenny has a look to see what he thinks, or Kenny likes a player and Comolli has a look and delves into the stats to help Kenny decide. It seems like a team approach, so I'm hoping this summer we really bring in some top class gems to get us going next season.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2012, 12:50:53 am by kvarmeismydad »
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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #865 on: March 23, 2012, 12:53:44 am »
Just having quick read beane a spurs fan and developed a system for footie.. Hendo would have been one based on his stats as well. Need to do a shit load reading educate myself on this. I heard before comoilli believed in it to a degree? Who knows what go's on behind closed doors at club how much power Kenny has to pick exactly who he wants
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Offline L44ever

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #866 on: March 26, 2012, 04:37:48 pm »
NESV came over here openly admitting they knew nothing about football. They brought in Comolli, who's got an ok record, but seems to be more qualified as being "a friend of Billy Beane".

Whats interesting is to apply this Soccernomics to other eras. IMO we wouldn't have seen Kenny, or Lawro at Anfield. Probably not re-signed Rushie. Maybe not got Souness. Were there lots of great alterbatives in that era?NO. More importantly, we'd have sold a lot of players at 27 yrs or so. Similarly, Soccernomics is the exact opposite of Mourinho's philosophy ( and I don't mean in terms of high spend, but in terms of buying proven players). Many cornerstones of the Manc's campaigns would never have been signed by them. And I could go on.

What do I think Soccernomics is? Basically a public relations based notion. Generated by people who's knowledge of football is average to zero. I couldn't believe the hideous drivel in the Daily Fail saying how Dalglish was stupid and Soccernomics was brilliant...

The recent activity ie stars out and underperforming British  in, looks a hell of a lot more like NESV and  Comolli
than Kenny.

Ultimately, Soccernomics is a form of buying to sell. Its basically saying"we're cleverer than the clubs who spend more, they dont know what they're doing". Well sadly, I'd take the judgment of Rafa, Fergusxxn and Mourinho etc than NESV and Comolli ANY day of the week.

The other part of Soccernomics that I feel uncomfortable with is that it reduces key constituents of our club to pure commodities. Our favourite sons are not futures contracts to be sold for profit at 26.5 years of age. And crude statistics alone does not have a hope in hell of telling us their worth. Least of all by Americans who hardly never even watch a live game.

I remember watching an LFC.TV ad earlier in the same. Some overpriced Gladstone Conservatory package.
"Selling the brand" etc. It involved Mereiles and Torres celebrating a goal. The same Mereiles and Torres that had been replaced by Carroll and Adam months and months before.

They say Americans don't do irony.
I think they have a strange defintion of brands too sometimes..
NESV era players bought minus players sold minus wages reduced
=  NET SELLING CLUB!!
Yet you STILL blame Kenny!

http://www.theanfieldwrap.com/2011/08/the-great-net-spend-rope-trick-and-more-moneyballs/

And add the cash for Mereiles+Aquilani off the books to the above...!
The article lets NESV off lightly,but its clear- LFC IS A NET SELLING CLUB!

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #867 on: March 26, 2012, 04:59:16 pm »
NESV came over here openly admitting they knew nothing about football. They brought in Comolli, who's got an ok record, but seems to be more qualified as being "a friend of Billy Beane".

Whats interesting is to apply this Soccernomics to other eras. IMO we wouldn't have seen Kenny, or Lawro at Anfield. Probably not re-signed Rushie. Maybe not got Souness. Were there lots of great alterbatives in that era?NO. More importantly, we'd have sold a lot of players at 27 yrs or so. Similarly, Soccernomics is the exact opposite of Mourinho's philosophy ( and I don't mean in terms of high spend, but in terms of buying proven players). Many cornerstones of the Manc's campaigns would never have been signed by them. And I could go on.

What do I think Soccernomics is? Basically a public relations based notion. Generated by people who's knowledge of football is average to zero. I couldn't believe the hideous drivel in the Daily Fail saying how Dalglish was stupid and Soccernomics was brilliant...

The recent activity ie stars out and underperforming British  in, looks a hell of a lot more like NESV and  Comolli
than Kenny.

Ultimately, Soccernomics is a form of buying to sell. Its basically saying"we're cleverer than the clubs who spend more, they dont know what they're doing". Well sadly, I'd take the judgment of Rafa, Fergusxxn and Mourinho etc than NESV and Comolli ANY day of the week.

The other part of Soccernomics that I feel uncomfortable with is that it reduces key constituents of our club to pure commodities. Our favourite sons are not futures contracts to be sold for profit at 26.5 years of age. And crude statistics alone does not have a hope in hell of telling us their worth. Least of all by Americans who hardly never even watch a live game.

I remember watching an LFC.TV ad earlier in the same. Some overpriced Gladstone Conservatory package.
"Selling the brand" etc. It involved Meireles and Torres celebrating a goal. The same Meireles and Torres that had been replaced by Carroll and Adam months and months before.

They say Americans don't do irony.
I think they have a strange defintion of brands too sometimes..

Aside from the fact you read the Daily Mail  ::) , you haven't really told us much here. What do you think "soccernomics" is exactly?
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Offline L44ever

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #868 on: March 26, 2012, 06:11:26 pm »
1st I don't read the Daily Fail. I saw a copy of it and noticed some twit attacking Kenny.

My understanding of Moneyball has been got from places like this. Infact most of it was links off here.
Ultimately, my understanding is that its fatally flawed. Because football isn't like baseball. Either onfield, or off-field.

If you have what u think is  a fair summary of Moneyball, maybe u'd like to post it, and I'll say what I have a problem with.
NESV era players bought minus players sold minus wages reduced
=  NET SELLING CLUB!!
Yet you STILL blame Kenny!

http://www.theanfieldwrap.com/2011/08/the-great-net-spend-rope-trick-and-more-moneyballs/

And add the cash for Mereiles+Aquilani off the books to the above...!
The article lets NESV off lightly,but its clear- LFC IS A NET SELLING CLUB!

Offline Nessy76

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #869 on: March 26, 2012, 06:43:58 pm »
1st I don't read the Daily Fail. I saw a copy of it and noticed some twit attacking Kenny.

My understanding of Moneyball has been got from places like this. Infact most of it was links off here.
Ultimately, my understanding is that its fatally flawed. Because football isn't like baseball. Either onfield, or off-field.

If you have what u think is  a fair summary of Moneyball, maybe u'd like to post it, and I'll say what I have a problem with.

Interesting. So you can't say what "Soccernomics" is, or how it applies to LFC, but you think it's the same thing as "Moneyball" because (no, missed that bit) and as "Moneyball" is a baseball thing and "Soccernomics" is supposedly a football thing, even though you can't really explain what it is, you're very much against it.

If it helps, I can tell you what I think, but I doubt you'll get much from it.
The phrase "moneyball" applies to a method of building a baseball team. It's more a loose set of ideas than any fixed theory, but it includes the idea that there are (or were, at least, all evidence seems to suggest that "moneyball" has become self-defeating) stats in baseball which were undervalued, but which were actually useful indicators of good players. It allowed Billy Beane to build a team of players on the cheap, players who were overlooked by other teams because their headline stats - the ones quoted by fans and pundits, weren't that great. When John Henry bought the Red Sox, they started to use a similar philosophy in their approach to player recruitment, but they also spent a great deal of money building the side.

It has no application in football that I know of.

Soccernomics was the title of a fairly popular book about the financial side of football. I haven't read it, but if it espouses a particular method of scouting (which, so far as I know, it doesn't) I don't think it is playing a massive part in how the club is organised.

I'm really not sure where your confusion comes from, there has been a lot of nonsense written here about "moneyball" and how stats might be used in football, so it is understandable, but if you are going to go full tilt against a system, would it not make sense to try and give yourself a bit of understanding of what that system is?

Otherwise you'll just end up looking a bit daft.
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Offline redmark

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #870 on: March 26, 2012, 08:53:41 pm »
Whats interesting is to apply this Soccernomics to other eras. IMO we wouldn't have seen Kenny, or Lawro at Anfield. Probably not re-signed Rushie. Maybe not got Souness. Were there lots of great alterbatives in that era?NO. More importantly, we'd have sold a lot of players at 27 yrs or so. Similarly, Soccernomics is the exact opposite of Mourinho's philosophy ( and I don't mean in terms of high spend, but in terms of buying proven players). Many cornerstones of the Manc's campaigns would never have been signed by them. And I could go on.

I disagree with the idea that any of those signings - with the possible exception of re-signing Rush - wouldn't have happened in a 'moneyball' environment. Dalglish was about the maximum age you'd sign a player, but was cast iron guaranteed talent. Souness was at a good age and had been overlooked by big clubs after getting a reputation. Lawrenson was at a good age. Moneyball does not mean cheap. Now, re-signing Rush wasn't moneyball... but it's debatable how successful it was, too.

Moneyball wouldn't 'dictate' selling players at 27 - but in the 28-30 age range. Which funnily enough, a handful of truly top class players excluded, is exactly what we did, until the late 80s under Dalglish's management.

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Offline Vulmea

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #871 on: March 26, 2012, 09:07:29 pm »
Soccernomics was the title of a fairly popular book about the financial side of football. I haven't read it, but if it espouses a particular method of scouting (which, so far as I know, it doesn't) I don't think it is playing a massive part in how the club is organised.

Soccernomics has a chapter on Lyon and how they work their scouting and transfer policy - it contains a list of the type of things Lyon look at - it could be described as a scouting formula

The cross over between the two was the need for objective evidence rather than intuition for scouting is a parallel

What neither suggest is that only objective evidence are used - its something those opposed to the idea always throw up but its a fallacy - the idea is simply to de-risk the process - ideally you identify a stat that nobody else knows about because that gives you an advantage.

The idea gets a bad rap because its academic and most fans dont like to be told what they see with their own eyes is biased and often wrong even though its generally biased and often wrong.



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Offline rafathegaffa83

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #872 on: March 26, 2012, 10:05:51 pm »
The idea gets a bad rap because its academic and most fans dont like to be told what they see with their own eyes is biased and often wrong even though its generally biased and often wrong.

Definitely.

Offline scousemike187

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #873 on: March 27, 2012, 12:15:28 pm »
Has anyone seen the film moneyball? I bought it the other day and noticed something strange I dont know if its been mentioned, but on the transfer deadline scene, there is a liverpool football in the background behind brad pitts head. anyone else picked up on this? Or anyone good enough on computers to get that image onto here? Subliminal advertising man!!

Edit: Its not crystal clear, but im convinced its one of our balls!!
« Last Edit: March 27, 2012, 12:18:29 pm by scousemike187 »

Offline liverpooll

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #874 on: March 27, 2012, 12:18:51 pm »
Judging by the earlier posts in this thread.

The pressure is all on Comolli, this season again our biggest concerns are RM, LM, Forward despite spending tons last year to solve these areas.

Offline gallden

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #875 on: March 27, 2012, 12:19:46 pm »
I think brad Pitt is a Liverpool fan.

Offline redmark

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #876 on: March 27, 2012, 12:23:43 pm »
It has no application in football that I know of.

It has some, and will have more as stat-gathering in football matures and becomes more sophisticated. For example, people look at 'assist' figures for wingers or creative midfielders - but the assist figure depends on a striker doing his bit to qualify. So the newer, more sophisticated stat is 'chance creation' - passes which lead to shots on goal, regardless of whether they end in a goal or not. As mentioned a million times on RAWK, Downing, Adam and Henderson all figured very highly in 'chance creation' stats last season - Downing is 5th in 'chance creation' over the last 7 years, behind only Gerrard, Lampard, Fabregas and Giggs.
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Offline AlexanderKruseBerg

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #877 on: March 27, 2012, 12:52:06 pm »
Bring in a proper partner for Lucas at CM, so Gerrard can have a free role..

We need a right winger and a striker aswell..

CM: Martinez/M'Villa/Moutinho
RM/RW: Lavezzi/Hazard/Götze
ST: Muniain/Cavani

I can't see this happening, but I think the main problem with our squad is the lack of quality in this positions..

Sell:
Kuyt
Aurelio
Maxi
Aquilani
Darby
Cole
Adam
Gulacsi
Eccleston
Pacheco


Squad 12/13:

Reina*
Doni*

Flanagan
Robinson
Enrique*
Johnson*
Kelly*
Carragher*
Skrtel*
Coates*
Agger*
Wilson
Wisdom

Lucas*
Spearing*
Henderson*
Suso
Gerrard*
Shelvey
Coady
New CM*
Sterling
Downing*
Bellamy*
New winger*
Silva

Carroll*
Suarez*
New striker*
Morgan
brclausen Birger Clausen
According to Danish Channel 6. After the game Agger offered Fedinand to meet outside after the game for a little 'fight'

Offline Kochevnik

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #878 on: March 27, 2012, 01:32:51 pm »
Bring in a proper partner for Lucas at CM, so Gerrard can have a free role..

We need a right winger and a striker aswell..

CM: Martinez/M'Villa/Moutinho
RM/RW: Lavezzi/Hazard/Götze
ST: Muniain/Cavani


I can't see this happening, but I think the main problem with our squad is the lack of quality in this positions..

The problem with this theory is that we'll only be able to afford one of the players on that list.  So which one do you want?  We have three positions that need improving, and I agree with you on which three, but the fact is that we aren't Man City, so we can't just say 'right, we need a CM, a RW, and a striker.  Who are the best in the world in those positions?  Let's get them.'

I think that the biggest difference would be at RW/RF, so I would spend the money there.  Gotze might be available, but the other two are probably out of our reach (unless you only want us to buy one player in the summer).  I would see if we can get Gotze or Moura, but even then we're really stretched to afford them.  Another option is to bring in a player like Hoilett, who would probably cost 5-8 million in signing on and development fees, and then put more money into the striker position.  At a stretch, I think we could do something like: Huntelaar (15 million? if rumours are to be believed, though I find it hard to believe he'd be available for that), Hoilett (5-8 million) and Martinez (25 million), but even that would probably be difficult on our budget.

Anyway, I've gotten myself off track; my point is, we can't get a world class player for even two of these vacancies, let alone three, so your list of suggestions is just pointless.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2012, 01:36:59 pm by Kochevnik »
Managers who have won fewer than three European Cups: Ferguson, Mourinho, Guardiola, Saachi, Hiddink, Hitzfeld, Clough, Happel, Trapattoni, Cruyff, Michels, Lobanovsky, Capello, and many more.
Managers who have won three or more European Cups: Bob Paisley

Offline AlexanderKruseBerg

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #879 on: March 27, 2012, 10:37:35 pm »
The problem with this theory is that we'll only be able to afford one of the players on that list....

...my point is, we can't get a world class player for even two of these vacancies, let alone three, so your list of suggestions is just pointless.

I know that. Just me wish-thinking.

How much do you think we will get in budget this summer?
brclausen Birger Clausen
According to Danish Channel 6. After the game Agger offered Fedinand to meet outside after the game for a little 'fight'