Author Topic: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy  (Read 78060 times)

Offline muzzy54

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Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« on: July 15, 2011, 09:21:53 pm »
A must read for anyone who is following our transfer activity with a sense of perplexity... :wave

 http://worldfootballcolumns.com/2011/07/15/the-scouser-report-soccernomics-moneyball-and-liverpools-transfer-policy/

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Offline J-Mc-

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2011, 09:23:05 pm »
*Parks arse and waits for Abrak.*

Offline ericcsson

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2011, 09:29:14 pm »
 
*Parks arse and waits for Abrak.*

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Offline red annie

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #3 on: July 15, 2011, 09:47:10 pm »
I can't really say that I have been perplexed, but the over all strategy has not been that clear.

That article makes a lot of sense to me. :) :)


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Offline west_london_red

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2011, 09:56:54 pm »
Great article, thanks for posting.
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Offline j.eastham

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #5 on: July 15, 2011, 09:57:11 pm »
Good read/ mini-summary.  I've read both soccernomics and moneyball.  Both very interesting books.... glad to see us controlling our transfers.  I like the point about new managers waste money  (ie Hodgson:  poulsen, cole, konchesky....).

Offline AFX

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #6 on: July 15, 2011, 10:03:09 pm »
Enjoyed that. It's great to have a solid strategy. I'm really confident we have the right people in charge at all levels of the club to make it a success.
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Offline Kopmeister

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #7 on: July 15, 2011, 10:18:45 pm »
A must read for anyone who is following our transfer activity with a sense of perplexity... :wave

 http://worldfootballcolumns.com/2011/07/15/the-scouser-report-soccernomics-moneyball-and-liverpools-transfer-policy/

Great article, soem very well made points.

Offline decky

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #8 on: July 15, 2011, 10:33:44 pm »
Reading Moneyball at the minute, really interesting stuff

Offline dustygator

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #9 on: July 15, 2011, 11:06:57 pm »
I'm sorry but some of that is just bullshit generalizations.

Quote
1. New managers waste money, limit their say in transfers.
Easily avoided by getting your man and not settling for someone less (and giving them a long contract) or not overreacting and firing your manager in the first place.

Quote
3. Avoid stars of recent international tournaments.

What does a club show when it buys a player after a good World Cup performance…..let’s consult our copy of “Moneyball”:

“a tendency to be overly influenced by an athlete’s most recent performance: what he did last was not necessarily what he would do next.”

International tournaments are small sample sizes that might not prove a players true quality but there are as many counter-examples as their are ones that back it up. A good tournament will increase a player's value but generalizing like this is ridiculous. The topscorers in the 05 and 07 under-20 WC were Messi and Aguero. The reason recent performances are weighed heavily in general is because they are more often than not the best representation of a players at the current time (barring significant injuries, etc).

Quote
4. Avoid certain nationalities (e.g. Brazilian, Dutch) as they are overpriced.

What conjures more elegant images? A tricky Brazilian or a skillful Slovenian? Does a flashy mohawk come to mind?  Thought so.   If I were to say there was an attacking midfielder that has just enjoyed the best season of his young career but has never played outside his home country, how much would you say he’d go for and is he worth the gamble? What if the price was only a few million? Compare the €2.3m Palermo paid for Slovenian Josip Iličić last summer to the €40m Neymar is reportedly commanding and you can see another reason for the Reds focus on British talent.

British players are probably the most overpriced of any nation. Neymar is rated at £35M+ just because he is Brazilian; he's the best player on the best team in the Brasilerao and the Brazilian NT all at the age of 19. You know why Ilicic was dirt cheap? He had played all of 5 games for Maribor after moving up from a second division team before Palermo bought him having playing Maribor in EL qualifying. He could've easily turned out like Bebe.

Quote
5. Buy players in their early twenties; older players are overvalued and youngsters aren’t fully developed

This is an example of the idea of zagging while everybody else is zigging. The basic idea behind "Moneyball" is to exploit market inefficiencies. Everyone knows that most players peak in their mid-to-late twenties. Buying a player in their early twenties might not be efficient because players of those age are correctly or even overvalued. On the other hand, older players who haven't declined physically might be undervalued. Inter bought a 31 YO Lucio for ~£6M and he helped them deliver a treble. Even with zero residual value (if he retires an Inter player or is released), that transfer will still have been a success.

Quote
8. Never buy strikers because they are overpriced, develop them instead.
Such a ridiculously broad generalization.

Quote
6. Sell a player either before buyers see deterioration in his game or when a club offers more than he’s worth.
This is very true though due to the asymmetry of information. The selling team has more information about one of their players than any others and can use that to their advantage.

Quote
9. Buy players with personal problems and help them deal with their problems
Again a generalization. Sometimes this will work and you'll get a talented player with demons and excels after shedding them. Sometimes you'll get El-Hadji Diouf or Pennant.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2011, 11:10:25 pm by dustygator »

Offline Twelfth Man

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #10 on: July 15, 2011, 11:10:37 pm »
Reading Moneyball at the minute, really interesting stuff
Just bought it after month's of deliberating. Also just realised it is the same Michael Lewis from The Big Short which is excellent.
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Offline micksmith

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #11 on: July 15, 2011, 11:50:57 pm »
Currently reading "Why England Lose..." aka Soccernomics and this point from the book and article started to make me think:

3. Avoid stars of recent international tournaments.

I think we can all mostly agree that Suarez had a pretty good World Cup performance wise, but also he was a star in the Dutch league as well. But did that hand ball off the line vs. Ghana actually affect his value/buyer potential to other teams?

I know we overlooked that, bought him and he was fantastic for us, but does anyone else think that had he not handled the ball off the line, a bigger team might have snapped him up quicker than we did?

Offline Vulmea

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #12 on: July 16, 2011, 12:15:28 am »
Currently reading "Why England Lose..." aka Soccernomics and this point from the book and article started to make me think:

3. Avoid stars of recent international tournaments.

I think we can all mostly agree that Suarez had a pretty good World Cup performance wise, but also he was a star in the Dutch league as well. But did that hand ball off the line vs. Ghana actually affect his value/buyer potential to other teams?

I know we overlooked that, bought him and he was fantastic for us, but does anyone else think that had he not handled the ball off the line, a bigger team might have snapped him up quicker than we did?

there are no bigger teams...............
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Offline MikkeB

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #13 on: July 16, 2011, 12:23:48 am »
Abraks gonne eat this thread up in no tiamme mayn, like i do my chitlens and gumbo. (deep south accent.)

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #14 on: July 16, 2011, 12:32:36 am »
Interesting article, I read Moneyball in 2 days last week and some of these points are right on others, at least to me, are quite far off. (DustyGater highlighted the standout ones) Still I think that it is refreshing to know that Statistics or players are becoming quite influential to how our club looks into players.
Currently reading "Why England Lose..." aka Soccernomics and this point from the book and article started to make me think:

3. Avoid stars of recent international tournaments.

I think we can all mostly agree that Suarez had a pretty good World Cup performance wise, but also he was a star in the Dutch league as well. But did that hand ball off the line vs. Ghana actually affect his value/buyer potential to other teams?

I know we overlooked that, bought him and he was fantastic for us, but does anyone else think that had he not handled the ball off the line, a bigger team might have snapped him up quicker than we did?

I don't think that the handball incident had too much influence on which teams were looking at Luis.
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Offline MikkeB

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #15 on: July 16, 2011, 12:45:37 am »
Article is awful, i'm sorry...

Offline Dotty

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #16 on: July 16, 2011, 01:14:14 am »
Wow, amazed this managed to get it's own thread on here  ;D

ALways open to feedback lads, good or bad it all gets taken on board so I can try improve my next attempt.

Obviously gross generaizations are going to appear in a book that is tryingto encompass all of football. Yes therer are exceptions to every rule but for the most part I've found these rules to hold steady when I was researching.

If you disagree with any points or just don't like the article, please say why and I can try take it from a different angle. I know not everyone can be pleased all the time but I'll try my best  ;)

Offline Danny_

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #17 on: July 16, 2011, 01:52:19 am »
"8 Never buy strikers because they are overpriced; develop them instead."

Er...what? Didn't we just spend over 50 million on two strikers in January of last year?  This article is absolute bollocks.  This isn't our strategy at all.

Check out no.4:

"4. Avoid certain nationalities (e.g. Brazilian, Dutch) as they are overpriced."  What about English players? Are they good value for money then?  Also, Dutch players are not over-priced.  I don't believe Brazilian players are either but that's more debatable

And point no.1 is also laughable:

"1. New managers waste money, ergo, limit their say in transfers". 
How many players have we signed again so far this summer since Kenny took over?

Supposedly, this is our procedure for signing players:

"Kenny Dalglish tells Damien Comolli what he thinks the team needs.
Comolli returns with a shortlist of players that fit the criteria set out by these very rules.
Dalglish chooses a player off the shortlist."

Somehow, I doubt it.  If it is, then it is a very stupid strategy.  I think Kenny gets a bit more say than this in determining which players are on that list. 

Offline Dotty

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #18 on: July 16, 2011, 02:26:12 am »
"8 Never buy strikers because they are overpriced; develop them instead."

Er...what? Didn't we just spend over 50 million on two strikers in January of last year?  This article is absolute bollocks.  This isn't our strategy at all.

Read the whole article forst before commenting cheers. Overspendingis quite clearly covered in the last quarter.

Quote
Check out no.4:

"4. Avoid certain nationalities (e.g. Brazilian, Dutch) as they are overpriced."  What about English players? Are they good value for money then?  Also, Dutch players are not over-priced.  I don't believe Brazilian players are either but that's more debatable

Depends when you buy them but on the whole they are more expensive. Certain nationalities create illusions of grandeur.

Quote
And point no.1 is also laughable:

"1. New managers waste money, ergo, limit their say in transfers". 
How many players have we signed again so far this summer since Kenny took over?

Kenny's say in transfers is limited when compared to the likes of Redknapp, Ferguson, Moyes etc. which is kinda the whole point. It doesn't matter how many he's actually signed as the amount is irrelevant to the point made.

Quote
Supposedly, this is our procedure for signing players:

"Kenny Dalglish tells Damien Comolli what he thinks the team needs.
Comolli returns with a shortlist of players that fit the criteria set out by these very rules.
Dalglish chooses a player off the shortlist."

Somehow, I doubt it.  If it is, then it is a very stupid strategy.  I think Kenny gets a bit more say than this in determining which players are on that list.

Paul Tomkins agrees with me re: shortlist creation


http://tomkinstimes.com/2011/06/holy-comolli-statman-liverpools-data-revolution/
Comolli and Dalglish have very different skill sets. Between them, they can cover a lot of bases. By all accounts, following extensive scouting by himself and his team, Comolli creates a shortlist for Dalglish to choose from, rather than forcing signings onto the manager. The Frenchman knows that the manager has to be happy with who he receives, and his job is to narrow down the field.

But I guess we're both wrong, eh?

Offline decky

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #19 on: July 16, 2011, 02:43:59 am »
With sabermetrics being compulsory now at LFC I would suggest that's the best way to work. The targets presented to Kenny then pass the FSG criteria and he can pick from there

Managers usually rely on scouting teams to bring them targets anyway so nothing radical here in a way, apart from the way the players are actually scouted

Offline decky

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #20 on: July 16, 2011, 02:58:06 am »
What I would love to know is what the key stats are for football. For example they explain in Moneyball how a formula was devised to determine the number of runs based on the number of hits, walks, total bases etc in a game. They then applied this formula back over years and years of stats to prove how effective it was. Once you devise these formulae for football you can work out the areas the team are weak in mathematically and then concentrate on players with high percentage stats in those areas. Really exciting and fascinating stuff

Offline DanA

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #21 on: July 16, 2011, 04:39:02 am »
These guidelines seem like horseshit to me. So far Kenny has been utterly predictable in who he has chased.

In Jan:
Wanted - Wide forward/Striker with creative flair.
Alternative targets -  Brian Ruiz, Loc Remy.
We Signed - Luis Suarez
The caliber of player may have surprised a few but consensus would certainly have been that we needed another striker who could also play wide.

Wanted - Target man to lead the line (replacing Torres)
Alternative targets: Mario Gomes, Fernando Llorente
We signed: Andy Carroll
Once we new Torres wanted out Andy Carroll was the most obvious option. He was young, english, taking the league by storm and a target man which was commonly thought to be the direction we should take given the Suarez signing. It was only the price tag that surprised.

Wanted: Deep lying play maker & left foot set piece taker
Alternative targets: Sneijder, Honda
We signed: Charlie Adam
A quality left footed set piece specialist that could sit beside Lucas in a 4-2-3-1 and act as play maker. Adam is a dream fit.


Wanted: Left Winger
Alternative Targets: Mata, Young
We signed: Downing
Age aside Downing is the perfect fit. Ask anyone what we needed and he checks all the boxes. A lot of people understandably wanted Mata but it's not certain he was/is attainable for us. There can be no confusion as to why Downing was bought.

Wanted: Backup GK
Alternative Target: Freidel
We signed: Doni
We wanted a stronger backup keeper, Friedel was our first choice but he chose Tottenham as there's a good chance he can win a starting place there. We got Doni who must surely be seen as a big improvement on Jones.

The only signing in the least bit surprising is Henderson. As a versatile central midfielder who creates a lot of chances you can see what he brings but with Aquilani and Adam also arriving i'm not sure there was a need for him. If we did sell both Aquilani and Meireles though it would be a very logical choice.

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Offline dustygator

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #22 on: July 16, 2011, 04:48:50 am »
What I would love to know is what the key stats are for football. For example they explain in Moneyball how a formula was devised to determine the number of runs based on the number of hits, walks, total bases etc in a game. They then applied this formula back over years and years of stats to prove how effective it was. Once you devise these formulae for football you can work out the areas the team are weak in mathematically and then concentrate on players with high percentage stats in those areas. Really exciting and fascinating stuff

Take everything in Moneyball with a pinch of salt. While it's a well-written book for mainstream consumption, the success/impact/innovation of Billy Beane and "Moneyball" is vastly overrated.

Offline rafathegaffa83

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #23 on: July 16, 2011, 04:52:26 am »
Currently reading "Why England Lose..." aka Soccernomics and this point from the book and article started to make me think:

3. Avoid stars of recent international tournaments.

I think we can all mostly agree that Suarez had a pretty good World Cup performance wise, but also he was a star in the Dutch league as well. But did that hand ball off the line vs. Ghana actually affect his value/buyer potential to other teams?

I know we overlooked that, bought him and he was fantastic for us, but does anyone else think that had he not handled the ball off the line, a bigger team might have snapped him up quicker than we did?

I think it's more or less avoiding 'World Cup Fever' buys. The type of players who have accomplished little prior to a tournament, but have one or two really good games. Past examples: El Hadji Diouf, John Jensen etc

 
What I would love to know is what the key stats are for football. For example they explain in Moneyball how a formula was devised to determine the number of runs based on the number of hits, walks, total bases etc in a game. They then applied this formula back over years and years of stats to prove how effective it was. Once you devise these formulae for football you can work out the areas the team are weak in mathematically and then concentrate on players with high percentage stats in those areas. Really exciting and fascinating stuff

A lot of these stats  now used in baseball such as WHIP were developed by amateurs who had an interest in the game and cultivated them from publicly available stats. I think as more stats become available in the game for free to the general public, we'll see better statistical theories to analyze the game develop.


The only signing in the least bit surprising is Henderson. As a versatile central midfielder who creates a lot of chances you can see what he brings but with Aquilani and Adam also arriving i'm not sure there was a need for him. If we did sell both Aquilani and Meireles though it would be a very logical choice.

I think Henderson has been brought in to shore up a future need a year or two down the road. A case of getting him now at a good price, rather than pay more later.

Offline Dmode101

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #24 on: July 16, 2011, 05:12:44 am »
Quote
http://1. New managers waste money, limit their say in transfers.

In football, managers are short-term employees unless a club gets extremely lucky. According to the League Manager’s Association, a manager’s average tenure in the Premiership is under 18 months, compared to an average player’s average stint at a club of 3 years.  Player turnover and, therefore, player expenditure increase drastically when a new manager wants to “put his stamp” on the team. From what we’ve been told, FSG has a set procedure for LFC transfers:

that is very misleading and not logical in conclusion. using a majority rule over the power structure has no meaning or logic. Great managers like shanks, uncle bob, Kenny and ferguson is enough to prove that you need to find the RIGHT MANAGER AND GIVE HIM ALL POWER IN TRANSFERS. that is the stats you should look at and then structure that way as thats the winning way.

the majority are precisely that because there can only be one winner and the rest are losers. liverpool exist to win not follow the "loser low-risk cautious" pattern. Stability is key. And Kenny's a rare winner. His aura alone supercedes these mundane geek "stats"

like the best always say - no guts no glory.

« Last Edit: July 16, 2011, 05:15:49 am by Dmode101 »
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Offline Danny_

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #25 on: July 16, 2011, 06:19:52 am »
Read the whole article forst before commenting cheers. Overspendingis quite clearly covered in the last quarter.

Depends when you buy them but on the whole they are more expensive. Certain nationalities create illusions of grandeur.

Kenny's say in transfers is limited when compared to the likes of Redknapp, Ferguson, Moyes etc. which is kinda the whole point. It doesn't matter how many he's actually signed as the amount is irrelevant to the point made.

Paul Tomkins agrees with me re: shortlist creation


http://tomkinstimes.com/2011/06/holy-comolli-statman-liverpools-data-revolution/
Comolli and Dalglish have very different skill sets. Between them, they can cover a lot of bases. By all accounts, following extensive scouting by himself and his team, Comolli creates a shortlist for Dalglish to choose from, rather than forcing signings onto the manager. The Frenchman knows that the manager has to be happy with who he receives, and his job is to narrow down the field.

But I guess we're both wrong, eh?

You are wrong but I'm not bothered getting into it with you.

Offline Didi_ram

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #26 on: July 16, 2011, 06:29:43 am »
If that is true,we will also go for a player who has personal/disciplinary problems and will be available on the cheap.
Smells of Cissokho to me.

Offline ACE1

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #27 on: July 16, 2011, 07:26:35 am »
Top Top read

Offline Torpedo Tommy

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #28 on: July 16, 2011, 07:37:50 am »
Wow, amazed this managed to get it's own thread on here  ;D

ALways open to feedback lads, good or bad it all gets taken on board so I can try improve my next attempt.

Obviously gross generaizations are going to appear in a book that is tryingto encompass all of football. Yes therer are exceptions to every rule but for the most part I've found these rules to hold steady when I was researching.

If you disagree with any points or just don't like the article, please say why and I can try take it from a different angle. I know not everyone can be pleased all the time but I'll try my best  ;)

Very good piece mate. Well structured and well worded.

I think your point in a later post 'exception to the rule' and the bit about 'Kenny having the final say' are key points. The 'scouting' element, when you think about it won't change significantly. A shortlist of players will be drawn up as normal but the criteria and principals of drawing the shortlist up is what will be different.

Kenny having the final say is the must for me. This seems to have been confirmed in the Charlie Adam deal as Comolli confirmed that he was a priority of Kenny's.

When you think about it, selling a player before he starts on the downward spiral is common sense. It's just how Liverpool will ascertain that. Some players are reliant on pace. Others aren't. Some are reliant on their ability to run and run - again, others aren't.

Interesting philosophy and it will be interesting to see how it all pans out. One thing's for sure, there will be a number of disgruntled fans when key members of the squad are shifted on with no apparent reason for them being sold happens.

Offline Torpedo Tommy

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #29 on: July 16, 2011, 07:41:31 am »
You are wrong but I'm not bothered getting into it with you.

You are wrong......but I'm not telling you why! It's a secret! :D

Quality response.

Offline Torpedo Tommy

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #30 on: July 16, 2011, 08:02:32 am »
I can't really say that I have been perplexed, but the over all strategy has not been that clear.

That article makes a lot of sense to me. :) :)


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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #31 on: July 16, 2011, 08:16:05 am »
very good article, cheers for the post.

royhendo

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #32 on: July 16, 2011, 08:25:09 am »
It's a rehash of every other article like it, no? Pawlu did a point-by-point article very soon after FSG took over along these lines. El Campeador did a phenomenal three part effort on his experience watching the Red Sox's transformation. Abrak posts more detail than this on here every day.

Dunno, it's getting a little hackneyed. Dan Kennett actually took the stats to a new level. This just says "Liverpool are doing what they say in Soccernomics".

It's high time we pushed on from what we already know I reckon.

Offline nocturnalvin

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #33 on: July 16, 2011, 08:27:29 am »
as opposed to Barca's policy of developing midfielders and buying strikers.

Offline Torpedo Tommy

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #34 on: July 16, 2011, 08:41:30 am »
Never buy strikers because they are overpriced

Think a lot of people are becoming a little too hung on to every word of this philosophy. "Never buy strikers" doesn't actually mean we will never buy another striker. If the need is there I'm sure we'll buy someone who is the right age.

Generally goal scorers, goal creaters and attacking players cost more than defenders. It is far easier to learn someone to defend better than it is to have natural instinct which, funnily enough, comes naturally. Think what the article is saying is, when it is possible, identify this natural instinct and nurture/develop it. i.e. concentrate a little more on attacking players in the academy/identify prospects at lower clubs and save £m's and help them. i.e. Spend on development and (hopefully) reap the rewards afterwards.

Common sense?  Look over our recent-ish history. Ian Rush, Robbie Fowler and Michael Owen. All cost a pittance in developing/signing versus their real worth.

Then look at Morientes, Cisse and Dean Saunders. All came here for big-ish money moves and never really succeeded. True, Saunders was in a team in decline but we lost money on all. The bigger the fee, the bigger the risk.

A lot is being said about the fee paid for Carroll. I'm convinced that if Andy Carroll's name was Andries Carrolla and we signed him from Valencia it would be different to the Chamionship Managers on here We haven't signed him for his pace, his looks, his shirt selling ability or his technique in tackling. We have signed him due to his strength, ability in the air and the problems he will cause others. He's young and has years in front of him. He's not going to lose his blistering pace because he doesn't have it. He won't lose is ability in the air and hopefully he won't shrink so Andy Carroll in 10 years will be a similar player to the current version.

More to the point, would we have signed him for that price if we had options at the club? No we wouldn't.

Offline conman

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #35 on: July 16, 2011, 08:44:19 am »
In addition to all the moneyball talk, I cannot wait to see the baseball movie to see how it happened in baseball..

Offline fredfrop

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #36 on: July 16, 2011, 08:54:46 am »
What this article says to me is:

1. The author hasn't grasped the differences between bargain basement A's moneyball & title-chasing Red Sox moneyball.

2. He has zero inside information about what stats we are looking at or (beyond the Boyzone example) how we are helping players settle. I'm pretty sure new players won't be dumped in a hotel for a few months like Cole was.

The first point makes it a flawed, if readable article, the second point makes me pleased that we're no longer leaking info to any old hack.

« Last Edit: July 16, 2011, 08:57:03 am by One of these »
* * * * *

Offline Doc Evil

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #37 on: July 16, 2011, 09:37:29 am »
A very good article and a good source of clarity for those who don't fully understand the new way of running a club.

In response to Dustygator - it's ALL generalisations, that's the point!! Unless you expect an article or way of running a football club with as many specific examples as there are players in world football.

As theories go, and by the very nature of generalisations, for the policy to be 'correct' it has to be true more often than it is false, and by that measure the philosphies put forward are good ones. Your 'critical analysis' of the article is pathetic and pseudo intellectual, you can't even make up your mind as to whether you are attacking the philosophy or the writer of the article ya fruitcake. 
"You going to Madrid lad? Gorrany spares?"

royhendo

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #38 on: July 16, 2011, 10:00:36 am »
The comment in here saying 'there is no equivalent of on-base percentage' - that's the challenge.
http://leftbackinthechangingroom.blogspot.com/2011/07/more-thoughts-on-moneyball.html

I refuse to believe that. It says more about our lack of insight and imagination than it does about the game itself.

Offline Johnny C

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #39 on: July 16, 2011, 10:18:45 am »
The comment in here saying 'there is no equivalent of on-base percentage' - that's the challenge.
http://leftbackinthechangingroom.blogspot.com/2011/07/more-thoughts-on-moneyball.html

I refuse to believe that. It says more about our lack of insight and imagination than it does about the game itself.
Amen !

For what it's worth the same things were said about Baseball (a sport exactly as old as football), up until Bill James came around and started considering the game outside the box. He started with simple questions which grizzled baseball-insiders assumed had already been figured out like "What is the value of a stolen base?"

IMO, this sport is ripe for Sabermetrics.