I wonder if this helps Macron or Le Pen and by how much? Or will it be an even split?
Well interestingly Fillon is retaining support since the weekend. Monday night the party elite met and, despite all melting away in the previous 4 days, unanimously backed Fillon in his candidacy. All the news stories covering the rally on Sunday showed multiple interviews of supporters vowing not to vote, vote Le Pen or spoil their vote rather than vote "other centre" or left (because ultra-conservative, ultra-catholic Fillon has suddenly become a "Centre-right" candidate). Whether the coverage was intended to illustrate continuing support or to parody his supporters, what it has done is reaffirm the intent of large parts of the right to vote for Fillon and encourage wavering voters to consider him again.
He's back up to 3rd with 19% so still an outsider but he's seemingly gone from dead duck to a runner within 4 days. Add Macron's polled support as being 50% sure & 50% "but for a better candidate", you have to wonder how many of the centre-leaning right wing voters will swing back to Fillon in the coming weeks.
If he keeps spouting fake news and getting called on it (the "reporting on tv" of his wife's suicide), there's no chance. If he can get his agenda into the news rather than his scandals, he may pull enough support from Macron (who's looking increasingly bland and not as clean (tax evasion) as he was), we may see something. That said, the left, currently lost with their 3-way split between Hamon 13.5%, Melanchon 10% and traditional Socialist Party voters jumping on the Macron bandwagon, is not getting elected as things stand. We may see parts of that vote slide to Macron before the first round.
Hamon is interviewing on national TV (France 2) tomorrow evening, we'll see what he has to say to pull voters back to him & the PS party.