Author Topic: Elections in Europe  (Read 165251 times)

Offline Caligula?

  • Relentlessly negative about fucking everything. A smile would crack your face.....the most boring poster on the site
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 28,406
  • SPQR
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #80 on: February 15, 2017, 07:13:34 am »
For anyone that's Dutch or just has a better understanding than me of what's going on there: What really are Wilders' chances of winning? Some polls seem to show him in the lead, although there are so many parties running that even if he was to win, he'd win few seats in parliament and would be forced into forming a coalition that other parties seem to vehemently oppose. What happens if he wins but fails to form a coalition?

Offline BoRed

  • BoRing
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 14,808
  • BoRac
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #81 on: February 15, 2017, 08:58:04 am »
For anyone that's Dutch or just has a better understanding than me of what's going on there: What really are Wilders' chances of winning? Some polls seem to show him in the lead, although there are so many parties running that even if he was to win, he'd win few seats in parliament and would be forced into forming a coalition that other parties seem to vehemently oppose. What happens if he wins but fails to form a coalition?

His party may well get more votes than any other party, but there's no chance of anyone forming a coalition with them, so his chances of forming a government are zero.

Offline Libertine

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,470
  • Nothing behind me, everything ahead of me
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #82 on: February 15, 2017, 09:02:37 am »
His party may well get more votes than any other party, but there's no chance of anyone forming a coalition with them, so his chances of forming a government are zero.

Two polls yesterday showing their support decreasing and barely above VVD, hopefully the trend will continute.

GfK poll: PVV-ENF: 17% ↓ VVD-ALDE: 15% CDA-EPP: 12% D66-ALDE: 11% ↑ GL-GREEN: 10% ↑

Kantar poll: PVV-ENF: 18% ↓ VVD-ALDE: 16% ↑ CDA-EPP: 12% ↑ D66-ALDE: 12% ↑ GL-GREEN: 11% ↑

Offline Zimagic

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,982
  • Liar, liar with your drawers on fire......
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #83 on: February 15, 2017, 09:57:41 am »
Hard to see Le Pen getting up, as Trump did. Luckily the French don't have the idiocy of the electoral college to worry about, and the odds of Le Pen winning a popular majority are surely insurmountable.

Totally. While it won't be the landslide Chirac enjoyed against her father, the only vote that will split to Le Pen is Les Republicans (Fillon), though the majority of those are still expected to vote for whoever get into the second round with her. Even splitting that vote 50%-50% won't bring her much higher than 35%. Everyone else will vote for Macron or whoever.

The issue we'll see is the legitimising of the FN as a political force. Where before it's was a polarising annoyance and a warning as to what can happen if you don't mobilise your electorate, a 35% stake in a presedential second round, twice what her father achieved, is a huge wake-up call to the other parties.
"Truth, Justice, Freedom, Reasonably-Priced Love and a Hard-Boiled Egg!"

Offline cloggypop

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,308
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #84 on: February 15, 2017, 10:18:27 am »
For anyone that's Dutch or just has a better understanding than me of what's going on there: What really are Wilders' chances of winning? Some polls seem to show him in the lead, although there are so many parties running that even if he was to win, he'd win few seats in parliament and would be forced into forming a coalition that other parties seem to vehemently oppose. What happens if he wins but fails to form a coalition?
I'm not Dutch but it's where I live. He will get around 20% max if he "wins" but it won't be enough to form a government as almost none of the other parties will work with him. There is a party called 50Plus which haven't ruled it out (they are a pensioners party, specifically to lower the retirement age, but seem to have a bit of a cross over in populist casual racism) but they won't add enough and may actually take some of his support away.

As expected, his support is falling again after his trial and the annual Zwarte Piet shite so hopefully that carries on. The dickhead was asking his supporters to take to the streets and claim power last week if he "wins" but isn't allowed to govern. Much as I would enjoy seeing them getting blasted with water cannons by the bizzies it's probably better that they just lose.

Offline Libertine

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,470
  • Nothing behind me, everything ahead of me
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #85 on: February 15, 2017, 04:09:13 pm »
The Liberals Strike Back

VVD-ALDE: 15% ↓
D66-ALDE: 13% ↑
PVV-ENF: 13% ↓
GL-GREEN: 12% ↑
CDA-EPP: 11% ↑
PvdA-S&D: 9% ↑
SP-LEFT: 8% ↓
CU-ECR: 6% ↑
50+-NI: 5% ↓
PvdD-LEFT: 4% ↑
SGP-ECR: 3%
FVD-NI: 1%
DENK-NI: 1%
VNL-NI: 1% ↑

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/831896960349118464

Offline cloggypop

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,308
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #86 on: February 15, 2017, 04:15:14 pm »
Excellent stuff. D66 level with them now.

Offline cloggypop

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,308
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #87 on: February 15, 2017, 05:23:12 pm »

Offline cloggypop

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,308
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #88 on: February 15, 2017, 05:25:31 pm »
That has them winning 24 - 28 seats out of a possible 150.

Offline TheShanklyGates

  • Firmly in the "shake it all about" camp
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 26,780
  • Outside The Shankly Gates...
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #89 on: February 15, 2017, 05:31:26 pm »
Do the Dutch use PR? If so surely it isn't a major disaster even if the far right nutters get the most seats as the moderate parties will still hold a significant majority between them?
I've just wiped the sticky residue from my bellend onto the television screen. Taste it Leo. You deserve it.
I would honestly let Wijnaldum jizz in my face right now

Offline cloggypop

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,308
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #90 on: February 15, 2017, 07:43:55 pm »
Yeah, it's PR. It's always a coalition.

Offline Libertine

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,470
  • Nothing behind me, everything ahead of me
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #91 on: February 16, 2017, 03:24:55 pm »




Biggest gap between Macron and Fillon that I've seen - hopefully the start of a trend.

When will Bayrou decide on running or not? An endorsement of Macron by him would be very handy.


EDIT: 42% of Bayrou supporters would go for Macron:




« Last Edit: February 16, 2017, 03:26:56 pm by Libertine »

Offline cloggypop

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,308
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #92 on: February 19, 2017, 12:13:30 pm »
Wilders, fresh from being found guilty of inciting discrimination, has launched his campaign by talking about "Moroccan scum".

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39016179

Online B0151?

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 19,093
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #93 on: February 19, 2017, 04:59:58 pm »
Wilders, fresh from being found guilty of inciting discrimination, has launched his campaign by talking about "Moroccan scum".

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39016179
He probably wants another trial. From what I understand that did more to raise his support than anything...

Offline Giono

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,901
  • And stop calling me Shirley
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #94 on: February 19, 2017, 06:43:01 pm »
Hard to see Le Pen getting up, as Trump did. Luckily the French don't have the idiocy of the electoral college to worry about, and the odds of Le Pen winning a popular majority are surely insurmountable.

Thankfully they need 50% of voters to get elected. Much better than the US with the electoral college bs and effectively 50 first-past-the-post elections.

The run off also allows people to get a real measure of support for alternatives like the FN or Greens as people feel freer to vote with their ideals in the first round. While in the US the Greens and Libertarian voters are vilified actively voting for the opposite of what they want in a close election.
"I am a great believer in luck and the harder I work the more of it I have." Stephen Leacock

Offline killer-heels

  • Hates everyone and everything. Including YOU! Negativity not just for Christmas. Thinks 'irony' means 'metallic'......
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 75,631
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #95 on: February 19, 2017, 10:17:37 pm »
Macron made some comments about colonial pasts and gay marriage which has made his lead over Fillon slip. Its getting tighter and tighter in this race, even the predictions for the 2nd round.

Offline Libertine

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,470
  • Nothing behind me, everything ahead of me
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #96 on: February 21, 2017, 03:59:29 pm »
Macron is in town today, met with May at no. 10 (doubt they'll become soulmates, though he likes older women) and addressing a rally of 3,000 this evening.

Polls have been tightening between him and Fillon recently, though a couple today showed him chasing down Le Pen - https://twitter.com/EuropeElects

One thing would certainly help - Bayrou dropping out:


Offline rafathegaffa83

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 41,943
  • Dutch Class
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #97 on: February 22, 2017, 12:24:39 am »
Macron made some comments about colonial pasts and gay marriage which has made his lead over Fillon slip. Its getting tighter and tighter in this race, even the predictions for the 2nd round.

Yeah, I was surprised to see those comments at this stage. I do find it interesting that he partially used his visit to London to encourage bankers, academics and researchers to move to France post-Brexit; similar to his rallying call for U.S. scientists to move to France after Trump's election.

Offline Libertine

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,470
  • Nothing behind me, everything ahead of me
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #98 on: February 22, 2017, 03:54:21 pm »
France: #Bayrou (MoDem-ALDE) backs #Macron (EM-NI). #Presidentielle2017

Great news!

Offline Giono

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,901
  • And stop calling me Shirley
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #99 on: February 22, 2017, 06:58:01 pm »
France: #Bayrou (MoDem-ALDE) backs #Macron (EM-NI). #Presidentielle2017

Great news!

That is huge news. Bayou is a veteran politician and centre-right to Macron's centre-left. It will further legitimise Macron as a serious candidate and bring in more centrist voters.
"I am a great believer in luck and the harder I work the more of it I have." Stephen Leacock

Offline Libertine

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,470
  • Nothing behind me, everything ahead of me
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #100 on: February 24, 2017, 05:23:06 pm »
That is huge news. Bayou is a veteran politician and centre-right to Macron's centre-left. It will further legitimise Macron as a serious candidate and bring in more centrist voters.

Looks like it from initial polling evidence....



Offline Giono

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,901
  • And stop calling me Shirley
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #101 on: February 24, 2017, 08:45:56 pm »
Looks like a 4 to 1 split between Macron and Fillon for Bayrou's voters. With these thin margins, it makes a big difference.
"I am a great believer in luck and the harder I work the more of it I have." Stephen Leacock

Offline Libertine

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,470
  • Nothing behind me, everything ahead of me
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #102 on: February 26, 2017, 06:49:11 pm »
Two more polls this weekend confirming the bounce for Macron with Bayrou's endorsement. Long way to go of course, but encouraging after a mini-wobble a couple of weeks back.








Offline Giono

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,901
  • And stop calling me Shirley
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #103 on: February 27, 2017, 06:49:04 pm »
Great to see a country where the 'outsider' candidate is not a fascist.
"I am a great believer in luck and the harder I work the more of it I have." Stephen Leacock

Offline Libertine

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,470
  • Nothing behind me, everything ahead of me
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #104 on: February 28, 2017, 12:19:36 pm »




Polls tightening - 2 weeks to go....

(PVV = fascists, VVD = centre-right liberals)

Offline cloggypop

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,308
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #105 on: March 1, 2017, 03:25:58 pm »


 European lawmakers paved the way Tuesday for French far-right leader Marine Le Pen to lose her parliamentary immunity over her tweeting of images of Islamic State atrocities, officials said.

French prosecutors opened an investigation in December 2015 into the graphic series of tweets by Le Pen, which included a photo of the decapitated body of US reporter James Foley.

The legal committee of the European Parliament on Tuesday backed a request by the prosecutors for Le Pen's immunity as a member of the EU's only elected assembly to be lifted, officials told AFP.

The European Parliament as a whole must now vote on Thursday on the issue, but committee decisions are generally followed by the assembly.

Le Pen has so far refused to attend a police interview over the investigation by police in the Paris suburb of Nanterre, citing her status as an MEP.

Her head of cabinet has however been placed under formal investigation for "the dissemination of violent images".

http://m.france24.com/en/20170228-le-pen-set-lose-eu-parliament-immunity-over-tweets

Offline Libertine

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,470
  • Nothing behind me, everything ahead of me
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #106 on: March 3, 2017, 11:19:34 am »
NI election results due today - early reports say turnout is much higher than last year, and higher in Remain constituencies than Leave constituencies.

Looks like SF have an outside shot of leading the polls and that the liberal Alliance party could achieve its best results.




Elsewhere, Macron leads Le Pen in the polls (first round) for the first time, though if Juppe ran instead of Fillon he and Macron would make the run-off (though I guess it's easy to be popular when you're not actually in the race).




Offline Trump's tiny tiny hands

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,016
  • Building steam with a grain of salt
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #107 on: March 3, 2017, 12:05:01 pm »
Looks like Le Pen will be in jail by the time the election begins anyway.

Offline Giono

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,901
  • And stop calling me Shirley
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #108 on: March 3, 2017, 01:48:38 pm »




Polls tightening - 2 weeks to go....

(PVV = fascists, VVD = centre-right liberals)

Can the DVV form a government if the finish first? Or is it like that France that the fascists winning is alarming, but won't lead to them likely forming the government?
"I am a great believer in luck and the harder I work the more of it I have." Stephen Leacock

Offline cloggypop

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,308
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #109 on: March 3, 2017, 02:12:50 pm »
Can the DVV form a government if the finish first? Or is it like that France that the fascists winning is alarming, but won't lead to them likely forming the government?
All the other parties (with the possible exception of 50Plus) have completely ruled out any chance of working with the PVV and forming a coalition.

Offline cloggypop

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,308
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop

Offline Libertine

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,470
  • Nothing behind me, everything ahead of me
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #111 on: March 3, 2017, 07:41:09 pm »
Northern Ireland, first preferences:
DUP: 28.1% (-1.1)
SF: 27.9% (+3.9)
UUP: 12.9% (+0.3)
SDLP: 11.9% (-0.1)
ALLI: 9.1% (+2.1)

DUP likely to just about stay largest party in terms of both first preference vote and seats.

Pretty depressing that NI is still so divided on sectarian grounds, and the more extreme parties still dominating.

Still, good to see Alliance increasing their vote substantially - part of a liberal recovery including the Lib Dems in the UK and hopefully success for Macron in France and the FDP getting back into the Bundestag.

Offline filopastry

  • seldom posts but often delivers
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 14,756
  • Let me tell you a story.........
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #112 on: March 3, 2017, 08:05:21 pm »
Northern Ireland, first preferences:
DUP: 28.1% (-1.1)
SF: 27.9% (+3.9)
UUP: 12.9% (+0.3)
SDLP: 11.9% (-0.1)
ALLI: 9.1% (+2.1)

DUP likely to just about stay largest party in terms of both first preference vote and seats.

Pretty depressing that NI is still so divided on sectarian grounds, and the more extreme parties still dominating.

Still, good to see Alliance increasing their vote substantially - part of a liberal recovery including the Lib Dems in the UK and hopefully success for Macron in France and the FDP getting back into the Bundestag.

I can't argue with the depressing nature of it all, even after the RHI scandal, the DUP share of the vote not really being significantly hurt at all.

As you say the uptick in the Alliance was really the only positive.

Offline campioni

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,483
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #113 on: March 4, 2017, 09:26:30 am »
The one good thing to come from this election is the DUP have lost their 'Petition of Concern' veto.

Online DangerScouse

  • "You picked on the wrong city!"
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 17,558
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #114 on: March 4, 2017, 09:29:35 am »
Shocking that Foster c*nt hasn't stepped down.

Offline Cliff Bastin

  • Big Exeter fan, pretending to be a gooner, pretending...yawn
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,444
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #115 on: March 4, 2017, 10:26:04 am »
The one good thing to come from this election is the DUP have lost their 'Petition of Concern' veto.
Direct rule is what will happen.

Offline cloggypop

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,308
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #116 on: March 4, 2017, 03:40:20 pm »
Interesting chat with Geert Wilders brother

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/an-interview-with-the-brother-of-dutch-right-wing-populist-geert-wilders-a-1136717.html

Sounds like a shitty life to live. He's practically under house arrest.

Offline HarryLabrador

  • went broke, so had to get the retrievers in.
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,260
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #117 on: March 4, 2017, 04:05:42 pm »
Interesting chat with Geert Wilders brother

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/an-interview-with-the-brother-of-dutch-right-wing-populist-geert-wilders-a-1136717.html

Sounds like a shitty life to live. He's practically under house arrest.
He made his bed for himself and seems absolutely content to lie in it.
This part of the interview with Paul Wilders is very interesting. You could substitute Trump, Marine Le Pen or May. Sad world, isn't it?

 Paul Wilders: He is a master of short messages. And in this complex age, that is precisely what many people want: a simple political vision without any nuance. Geert gives them that. He creates an identity: We, the Dutch people. And he also creates opposite poles: Muslims, the European Union, the elites. Terrorist attacks, refugees and the euro crisis engender fear and dissatisfaction. My brother, French populist Marine Le Pen and others take advantage of this mood and offer seemingly simple solutions: out with the migrants, close the borders, exit the EU. But our problems are far more complex. Geert peddles illusions to people.
SoS Membership Number: 387

Offline Johnny B. Goode

  • Currently flying solo.....
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,847
  • What planet is Garrincha from?
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #118 on: March 6, 2017, 12:09:10 pm »
Juppé confirmed he will not be running for president, and Fillon says he's not stepping down.

That's it for the Republicans, I'd assume. The only thing that still worries me is that most of Macron's voters aren't 'certain' they're sticking with him yet. I'm confident he beats Le Pen in the second round though.
'You put Pele face-to-face with me and I'll tell him: Pelé - you, me, any so-and-so...we can't deal with Garrincha, he's better than all of us.' Eusebio

Offline Giono

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,901
  • And stop calling me Shirley
Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #119 on: March 6, 2017, 03:37:23 pm »
Juppé confirmed he will not be running for president, and Fillon says he's not stepping down.

That's it for the Republicans, I'd assume. The only thing that still worries me is that most of Macron's voters aren't 'certain' they're sticking with him yet. I'm confident he beats Le Pen in the second round though.

I wonder if this helps Macron or Le Pen and by how much? Or will it be an even split?
"I am a great believer in luck and the harder I work the more of it I have." Stephen Leacock