Since APLT shows where we stand against other teams in a "par results" table, I was wondering how we stand against ourselves in previous seasons in terms of points taken from same number of games played.
We have had a relatively good start to this season. In the first 9 matches, we got 20 points. In previous seasons where we got same amount of points or more, where did we finish in the PL table?
To answer this question, I gathered the data from past seasons since start of 38-games era (since 1995-96 season) and generated a table of points per number of games played per season. The one below shows that for 9 games played but it is variable and can show same for any of the 38 games of a season. It also shows something interesting: for all the 8 times we were out of Top 4 in this era, only once have we gathered as much points as this season after 9 games. The one case was for the odd season of 2002-03 (when we brought in Diouf, Diarra and Cheyrou). It's fair to say that we are definitely not this season in the same situation: we haven't brought in an expensive winger from Senegal or a player who's been compared to Zidane, have we?! Jokes aside (and for the sake of preventing misunderstanding, I believe Mane is well worth every penny spent and Grujic is technically gifted), from a probability point of view, this model also shows that we are well on course to get a Top 4 finish! Even if we include the odd season and to please the pessimists, it should be at worst a Top 5 finish for the time being.
Of course, much like the APLT, these are just stats and extrapolation. The game gets played on the pitch. Nothing can prevent a slip collapse in confidence, injuries to the players, Klopp swallowing his glasses in excitement, a player getting hit by a parked bus, or overzealous archaeologists preventing access to Anfield turned into the "last wonder of the world"! Well you get the point! But at least, these theoretical data can keep us busy between matches for the football-thirsty ones amongst us. Above all, if this can help bring some more belief back, I'll gladly contribute!
