Topic: How many points do you expect in the next 5 matches 2016-17 edition

[ryatnalkar]

This thread always confuses me, isn't the idea to see out the first batch of 5 games, then predict the following 5 etc?

Thank God. I thought I was the only one who thought this 'how many points do you expect in the next 5 games (everything is fine, we will just keep changing goalposts)' thread would be a bit more constructive discussion if it talked about specific 5 game blocks over the season.

[Day83]

7

[diegoLFC7]

We can win every match the problem is how we start. Every time we have a bad first 5 minutes and concede we are never coming back, its happened so many times.

[LiverpoolKopKings]

Burnley fuckin madrid just lost to the mighty accrington stanley of the lucrative league two. And we lost 2-0 to them despite 80% possession.

How many points? Fuckin useless to speculate as we are consistently inconsistent.

[GreatEx]

We can win every match the problem is how we start. Every time we have a bad first 5 minutes and concede we are never coming back, its happened so many times.

Depends who we're up against. If we'd started that way against Arsenal, I still think we would've come back. When Burnley went 1-0 up against us I hardly batted an eyelid; I thought, "well, we can put 4 past Arsenal, we'll win this". But it soon become apparent that Burnley had exactly what they needed and could now camp out in a very disciplined and dour rearguard action, and we were really going to struggle. Another calamitous error for 2-0 and I knew the game was over, only question was whether we would nab a late consolation but even that hope had been snuffed by around the 70-minute mark.

In short, we know we struggle against bus drivers (although maybe with Mané we can improve in that respect). So against those lot we can't concede the lead. Against attacking sides like Arsenal and Dortmund, we're never beaten.

[vagabond]

We can win every match the problem is how we start. Every time we have a bad first 5 minutes and concede we are never coming back, its happened so many times.

You must have missed the first ten minutes at home to Dortmund last season.

[Lasardine]

Arsenal - 3
Burnley - 1/3
Tottenham - 1
Leicester - 3
Chelsea - 0

Hard start so keeping to 2 points a game will be difficult, if we can then great.

Knew we'd beat Arsenal and fuck up Burnley. Expected things to change for some reason and put 3 points. Stand by the other predictions, potentially a win tomorrow but doubt it.

[suede lady]

A win against Leicester and a loss to Chelsea would see us on 7 points after the 5 first games which is a decent enough return considering three of our opponents were last years top three, the fourth is a powerhouse of English football and four of the games were away. A win against Leicester and draw against Chelsea would be a good return and entirely possible. My only worry is that the current gung-ho style tends to be a bit lose at the back and if both these teams score first against us we will struggle to unlock them.

Arsenal - 3
Burnley - 0
Tottenham - 1
Leicester - 3
Chelsea - 0

[Sudden Death Draft Loser]

A win against Leicester and a loss to Chelsea would see us on 7 points after the 5 first games which is a decent enough return.

It never ceases to amaze me what some people consider a decent enough return. Are we really that shite?

[Binomial]

It never ceases to amaze me what some people consider a decent enough return. Are we really that shite?

No, but we're not very good either.

[the_red_pill]

It never ceases to amaze me what some people consider a decent enough return. Are we really that shite?

I've said a few weeks ago that 7/8 points over these 5 games would be a good return to bet on; and that was before I knew whether we were any good(11 August).
Still think that would be a good return- for a starting list of fixtures... all but 1 away... against considerable opposition... amidst bleeding in new players... and while busy absorbing new ideas yet again.
This was my reply to another poster:

Quote from: OsirisMVZ on August 11, 2016, 08:32:57 PM

    We will beat Arsenal, Burnley AND Spurs and the collective jizz of Rawk would be able to feed a small nation. Think we might crash back down to earth afterwards.

    The other big teams will drop points too. The start of the season includes Leicester/Arsenal and City/Utd. If you offered me 9-10 points from our first 5 I'd take that right now.

9-10's pretty optimistic, make it 7/8 and you've got a deal.

Had nothing to do with whether we're shite or not, but all to do with the circumstances around this start.
Once we're in our second set of fives, then yes- we can start looking for more points.

[ryatnalkar]

It never ceases to amaze me what some people consider a decent enough return. Are we really that shite?

Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal away in the first 5 games. And you won't consider a return of 7 as decent (not excellent, decent) ? These are all games that a very good side with a bit of bad form can loose. I would say 7 or 8 is decent. 10 excellent from these games. Even for a side with ambitions of winning the league

[killer-heels]

Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal away in the first 5 games. And you won't consider a return of 7 as decent (not excellent, decent) ? These are all games that a very good side with a bit of bad form can loose. I would say 7 or 8 is decent. 10 excellent from these games. Even for a side with ambitions of winning the league

7 is the bare minimum to expect. It would have been an average start, not a decent one as decent would be veering towards a good start. It all depends on how you class the absolute bare minimum.

[ryatnalkar]

7 is the bare minimum to expect. It would have been an average start, not a decent one as decent would be veering towards a good start. It all depends on how you class the absolute bare minimum.

Agreed mostly. However, 4 or 5 from these games and 2 points per game over he rest of the season (which the likes of Spurs, Arsenal have done in recent years very similarly) would still put you at 70-71 points and top 4 very likely. I am not talking how the media pressure or the fan pressure would affect the team if they had 4/5 points in first 5 games. I am looking at it in vacuum and 4/5 points from these 5 games, granted poor won't have disastrous consequences on our season. It's how we go against the next Burnley that will.

Or looking at it the other way... If these games were not all back to back and sprinkled over the rest of the season, would you still think 6 as a poor return from them (7 being the absolute minimum)?

/over analysis

[Sudden Death Draft Loser]

It all depends on how you class the absolute bare minimum.

Over the whole season, 2 points per game.

[SC04OCT]

When the fixture list was released, after looking at our first 5 games, I thought to myself that I'd be very happy with 9 points.

Imo, considering we've already played Arsenal and Spurs away, this is what I think of the following possibilties regarding our games against Leicester and Chelsea:

Beat both = 10 points = utopia.

Beat one, draw the other = 8 points = I'll take it. Happy with that.

Beat one, lose the other = 7 points = disappointing

Draw both = 6 points = not good at all

Draw one, lose the other = 5 points = disastrous

Lose both = 4 points = season over (not really, but yeah).

[the_red_pill]

Just want to remind ourselves.. we didn't just play Arsenal and Spurs away. We took points off of our rivals for a CL spot.
If we've been woeful(which I doubt), so have they. And that's a good thing.

Misery loves company.

[Suareznumber7]

A win at Chelsea will get us to 10 points in our first 5.  Would be quite a good start considering that we will have played Arsenal, Tottenham, and Chelsea away in those matches.  If only we didn't fuck up that Burnley game.   

[Gnurglan]

Arsenal
Burnley -3
Tottenham
Leicester
Chelsea

Four of these teams need to be considered top half sides. As per usual, I expect us to beat the rest, home and away. Based on that, I expect 3 points vs Burnley. Everything else is a bonus. Meaning we have a great opportunity in those first few games. We can get off to a good start and be 'ahead of schedule'.

If we stand on 7 points after five games, that would be really good.

Right now we are at 7 points after 4 games. That's positive. Hope we can beat Chelsea, or at least get a draw. After that when we play Hull and Swansea, we really, really need to win if we want to be a top side.

[exiledintheUSA]

10+ from those 5 would be a great start.

3 on Friday please lads.

[exiledintheUSA]

Guess we'll find out on the 17th of October.

[Dpt1983]

15 I always think we will win every game

[Gnurglan]

A win at Chelsea will get us to 10 points in our first 5.  Would be quite a good start considering that we will have played Arsenal, Tottenham, and Chelsea away in those matches.  If only we didn't fuck up that Burnley game.   

The Burnley result may come back to haunt us, but what's done is done. The results vs last year's top three have been good. Better than we could 'demand'. We're on track with a game to go from the first five. If we can follow that up with wins against the sides we must beat, things will begin to look interesting. It's the games vs the bottom half sides that we must perform in. 3 points is par for the course when we play Hull, Swansea, Sunderland, WBA, Watford, Bournemouth etc. This is where we tend to drop too many points (Burnley).

So far we've put ourselves in a really good position, even if we are a few points from the top.

[Mr_Shane]

We are in a good position. Everyone has to play everyone else anyway. And after we play Chelsea, we will have already played 3 of the current top 6.

[exiledintheUSA]

The Burnley result may come back to haunt us, but what's done is done.

Maybe but if we are talking about a 2-point par minimum season then we can override that result.  Beat Burnley and Arsenal at Anfield and we can write-off that reverse at Turf Moor.

[Jookie]

A win at Chelsea will get us to 10 points in our first 5.  Would be quite a good start considering that we will have played Arsenal, Tottenham, and Chelsea away in those matches. 

The Burnley defeat is frustrating but at the start of the seasons I'd have been really happy with 8 points off the 1st 5 games -  W2 D2 L1. Given the fixtures that would have be a good base for us to kick on from. We are a draw away at Chelsea from getting to 8 points.

10 points would be a brilliant start considering the fixtures we've had. A lot better than 'quite a good start'!

[Jookie]

The Burnley result may come back to haunt us

Every team has games they can say that about though.

There'll be games where we win points when we don't expect to. And there'll be games when we drop points when we don't expect to.

The key is to have more and the former and less of the latter over the course of the season. If we do that then we'll have a good season. 7 points from our 1st 4 games feels like we are doing well considering the fixtures so far

[DanA]

ALTPL has 9 as the target to be on track for 90 points. A win against Chelsea puts us on 10 but 8 wouldn't still be above 75 point target which I think is probably the realistic goal.

[ChaChaMooMoo]

Keeping up with the 2ppg required to qualify to champions league next season, about 7-9 points from the first 5 games should be the minimum target. That puts at 3 wins and 2 losses. Or 2 wins, 2 draws and a loss.

We should win the next game to maintain 2ppg. That way, we finish the 1st set (out of 8 sets) on target. And we are already done with Emirates, White hart lane and Stanford bridge.

Should get an absolute minimum of 2ppg. Right from the 1st set of 5 games. To the last set of 3 games.

[Le_Mot_Juste]

Arsenal (A) - 3
Burnley (A) - 3
Spurs (A) - 1
Leicester (H) - 1
Chelsea (A) - 0


Think we'll beat Arsenal, and then the usual over-confidence will set in.

Would be reasonably satisfied with 8 points from that opening 5 games, to be honest. Anything more would be a very positive sign.

Draw at Chelsea and we'll reach the 8 points I was originally hoping for.

Hull at Anfield is precisely the type of game we routinely fuck up though. More worried about that than Chelsea to be honest

[Gnurglan]

Every team has games they can say that about though.

There'll be games where we win points when we don't expect to. And there'll be games when we drop points when we don't expect to.

The key is to have more and the former and less of the latter over the course of the season. If we do that then we'll have a good season. 7 points from our 1st 4 games feels like we are doing well considering the fixtures so far

Yes, we're doing well. The Burnley result is kind of cancelled out now after our wins vs Arsenal and Leicester. What annoys me with that defeat is how it follows the pattern from previous years. We drop too many "easy" points. Last season, what cost us a CL spot was our dropped points vs Sunderland, Newcastle and WBA. 7 points that should have been 18. Last season we also got 7 points vs the top three, Leicester, Arsenal and Tottenham.

One result isn't the end of the world, but if we want to move up the table and challenge for the title or a CL spot, we've got to win the "easy" games every week.

[wige]

Is it worth updating the thread title to include the first and last teams faced in each block of 5?

As someone else said, it kinda loses it's value if we're not sure which block we're predicting, discussing etc..

If we can get to 10 pts tomorrow, thats a good start to the season. 7 or 8 is acceptable, given the fixtures - Arse/Spurs/Chelsea.

Think we'll hit 10.

[the_red_pill]

Yeah... it was going so well the first few pages, but then you started getting the lads who just couldn't distinguish one set from another, weighing in and shifting the goalposts with total abandon.
Made it a bit "meh.."

Better to just update the OP with the next set of fives every time.

[Suareznumber7]

The op does have the games broken down into groups of 5 though.  I don't think we'll ever get everyone to stick to the exact same set of 5 throughout the entire year regardless of what you do. 

[suede lady]

IF - and a big if - we win against Chelsea we would have had close to a dream start. 10 point from three of the most difficult away games and the champions at home would be a massive statement regardless of how the points were achieved. It is better to win against Arsenal and lose against Burnley than the other way around since we will be depriving a close rival of points.

Saying that, I'd be pleased with a draw at Stamford Bridge. 8 points from the first 5 games is decent enough.

[ShrewKop]

IF - and a big if - we win against Chelsea we would have had close to a dream start. 10 point from three of the most difficult away games and the champions at home would be a massive statement regardless of how the points were achieved. It is better to win against Arsenal and lose against Burnley than the other way around since we will be depriving a close rival of points.

Saying that, I'd be pleased with a draw at Stamford Bridge. 8 points from the first 5 games is decent enough.

I originally called 5 points from the opening 5 games, so to be on 7 is grand. We still need to sort consistency, but if we play with the confidence we had against Leicester, Chelsea are there for the taking. If we can take all three points, 10 points from the opening 5 games would be superb and even a draw would be fine, keeping us up with the early front runners after the most difficult set of fixtures from anybody.

[markedasred]

As a means of keeping within the blocks to keep the thread making sense, why not refer to this Chelsea game as block one game 5. If we want to shorten it, Derby becomes 2/1, or Block2#1. What do you think?.

[Ratboy3G]

10 from 15,  I'll take that

[Suareznumber7]

10 from 15,  I'll take that

Considering that we've played 3 of the hardest away fixtures in the first 5 matches I'd say 10 out of 15 is exceptional. 

[Gnurglan]

Arsenal
Burnley -3
Tottenham
Leicester
Chelsea

Four of these teams need to be considered top half sides. As per usual, I expect us to beat the rest, home and away. Based on that, I expect 3 points vs Burnley. Everything else is a bonus. Meaning we have a great opportunity in those first few games. We can get off to a good start and be 'ahead of schedule'.

If we stand on 7 points after five games, that would be really good.

10! Better than I thought. Impressive start. Now for the next five:

Hull - 3
Swansea - 3
Man U -
WBA -3
Crystal P - 3

Thus, I expect 12 points from the next five. It's a crucial group of games. We need to win, win, win. If we can win the four games we need to win, things will look very promising.