Author Topic: It's just a battle for the order of the first 4 spots now between 5 teams...  (Read 554920 times)

Offline Jellies

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1320 on: February 11, 2014, 11:21:39 pm »
I'm not dreaming just yet. I think a second place would be possible, as Arsenal will implode and City has a fairly difficult fixture, but I think Chelsea are too strong. WBA have done well against the top teams, and the result was not a sign of things to come for Chelsea in my opinion. No doubt we look up and not down though - fourth should be in the bag.

Offline carra1892

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1321 on: February 11, 2014, 11:21:55 pm »
Bollocks, we are averaging 2 points a game throughout the whole season. Pretty consistent if you ask me. With almost a fully fit squad to come back and a massive improvement in players like Flanagan, Sterling and Coutinho I don't see why we can't improve on that 2 points per game in our last 13 matches. If we do that, it's on

You can look at it in different ways. Another way: Week in week out we play with the same squad, we don't have much squad depth. Defence still is a weak point for the team, while the attack is outstanding.
We still have games against City, United, Chelsea, Tottenham, Newcastle and Southampton and tricky away games like the Fullham game tomorrow.
Those point are NOT guaranteed. For me there's a 50/50 chance of winning against the top sides imo. We are at home, but they are really good sides.
Crazy enough, Spurs are not far away from us. I think our aim should be top 4 and I think we should not be thinking about the title at all. Come to the last 5 games we are still up there, then yes go for it. But right now, I think we have to be realistic and go for what we wanted to when we started the season.
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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1322 on: February 11, 2014, 11:22:17 pm »
We're talking about being in the conversation for the title in February! How long ago was the last time that happened?
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Offline redmark

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1323 on: February 11, 2014, 11:25:26 pm »
I think our aim should be top 4 and I think we should not be thinking about the title at all. Come to the last 5 games we are still up there, then yes go for it. But right now, I think we have to be realistic and go for what we wanted to when we started the season.

Who, the team, or the fans? It doesn't really matter what we talk about. The team should be concentrating on winning one match at a time. Rodgers' target wasn't a position at all, it was 2 points per game.
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Offline riismeister

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1324 on: February 11, 2014, 11:26:21 pm »
One spectacularly shite manager has made them go from first so seventh. One of the best young managers in the world is taking us from seventh to...
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Offline KurtVerbose

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1325 on: February 11, 2014, 11:28:52 pm »
It was the xmas/new year schedule that screwed us a bit. Man City and Chelsea so close together really showed how small our squad is. I really think if those games had been further apart we'd have got something from one of them.

Now I think we're in for a bit of a comeback. City, Chelsea and the Ar$e all have big champions league commitments and we haven't. The Ar$e are going through their regular seasonal dip in form, City suddently don't look quite so formidable as they did, and Chelsea - I've never been really convinced by Chelsea this season.

I think we have a chance - smallish one, but a chance.
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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1326 on: February 11, 2014, 11:29:23 pm »
We are perceptibly a better team, a different team to earlier in the season. Our young players have all started to hit better form. Our first choice defence is coming back to fitness. Skrtel has hit a good run of form. We were awesome in the second half of the season last year so we have a trend to refer to. Our conditioning and fitness work is geared towards finishing the season strongly.

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Offline DanA

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1327 on: February 11, 2014, 11:34:00 pm »
You can look at it in different ways. Another way: Week in week out we play with the same squad, we don't have much squad depth. Defence still is a weak point for the team, while the attack is outstanding.
We still have games against City, United, Chelsea, Tottenham, Newcastle and Southampton and tricky away games like the Fullham game tomorrow.
Those point are NOT guaranteed. For me there's a 50/50 chance of winning against the top sides imo. We are at home, but they are really good sides.
Crazy enough, Spurs are not far away from us. I think our aim should be top 4 and I think we should not be thinking about the title at all. Come to the last 5 games we are still up there, then yes go for it. But right now, I think we have to be realistic and go for what we wanted to when we started the season.

You say the defence is a weak point but a major part of it being a weak point is that we've been playing the 2nd string. We're a couple of games away from having our full squad available as far as defence goes. In fact a back four of Johnson, Agger, Flanno and Skrtel may just be our 1st choice defence and they should be available if not for Fulham then the following game.
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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1328 on: February 11, 2014, 11:48:15 pm »
For me, it's been the midfield. We were awsome with Allen, Lucas and Henderson when SG was injured. With SG now defining a new role for himself we're awsome in midfield again - and that seems to have markedly improved the defence.
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Offline Lustig

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1329 on: February 11, 2014, 11:50:53 pm »
Very soon it will be obvious exactly what not playing in Europe fitness wise means. Our defense will be sorted also.

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1330 on: February 11, 2014, 11:52:13 pm »
Anything is possible, however, we are on 50 points with another 39 to play for. That means the absolute maximum we can get is 89 points.

89 points would almost certainly win us the league, BUT that leaves us with very little margin for error. We would need to break not only a club record, but a league one for a winning streak that long.

So, it's probably safe to say we aren't going to do that.

So far this season we've averaged two points a game which would give us 76. That's never going to win the title.

So the question is, realistically how much better can we do than 76 points, and where can that get us?
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Offline rickardinho1

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1331 on: February 11, 2014, 11:54:37 pm »
We have never been in a title race. The moment we lost against Hull City (3-1) in December it was clear to see imo. Then the draws against Villa and West Brom prove to me that we are definitely not a title winning team. Also if we are really, really a title winning team, then we should have won against City, as that game was clearly one where we could have won (based on our performance). I expected us to lose against City and Chelsea and I wouldn't mind it, had we won against Hull, Villa and West Brom. It's about those kind of games. Add to that, some point against your big rivals and you got a team competing for the title.

It's a race for fourth and there are lots of games left. There is still Tottenham and Everton. It would be crazy if Tottenham even comes close, but who knows? If they win their game against us then the momentum may be with them and problems may arise.
So I suggest we keep our feet on the ground, one good result against Arsenal changes nothing. It's the same 3 points as winning against Stoke and Norwich City. We just aren't consistent enough to win the title which is a shame. Because we had some games we clearly could win, had we been a bit smarter..

By that logic you could say that Man City arent title contenders for losing against Sunderland, Cardiff, Aston Villa, etc...; Chelsea aren't title contenders for failing to beat West Brom twice, losing to stoke, etc..; and arsenal lost to villa, and got thrashed by us and city.... That's the beauty of this season. Every game against a bottom half side is like a cup final due to how tight the bottom 10 are, so the slightest dip in form results in lost points. There are no easy games this season, and all the top teams are dropping points left right and center as every mistake and injuries to key players are magnified more than usual
« Last Edit: February 11, 2014, 11:56:15 pm by rickardinho1 »

Offline Illmatic

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1332 on: February 11, 2014, 11:55:41 pm »
Crazy to see that Spurs are only 3 points behind us and that's after suffering a 'catastrophic' setback with the AVB fiasco and getting pumped by City and us. Just crazy.

 Think they have been a little fortunate recently, they will surly start to drop more points.
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Offline rickardinho1

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1333 on: February 11, 2014, 11:56:55 pm »
Think they have been a little fortunate recently all season, they will surly start to drop more points.

fixed that

Offline bigbear

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1334 on: February 12, 2014, 12:01:22 am »
Anything is possible, however, we are on 50 points with another 39 to play for. That means the absolute maximum we can get is 89 points.

89 points would almost certainly win us the league, BUT that leaves us with very little margin for error. We would need to break not only a club record, but a league one for a winning streak that long.

So, it's probably safe to say we aren't going to do that.

So far this season we've averaged two points a game which would give us 76. That's never going to win the title.

So the question is, realistically how much better can we do than 76 points, and where can that get us?

Win tomorrow and have a think. Only if we win can we talk with grand ideas.

53 from 26 with our home form gets interesting. 6 wins at home 3 away and a draw or 2 wouldn't be miles from it.

Offline Tonyh

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1335 on: February 12, 2014, 12:06:07 am »
Really quite simple, win tomorrow and we are in the title race, and the press will state it.

Whether we can win is a slightly different debate but the fixtures favour us and we have to believe.

Fulham + Swans wins should mean CL is almost certain


Let's also never forget the 39!

Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1336 on: February 12, 2014, 12:09:26 am »
Anything is possible, however, we are on 50 points with another 39 to play for. That means the absolute maximum we can get is 89 points.

89 points would almost certainly win us the league, BUT that leaves us with very little margin for error. We would need to break not only a club record, but a league one for a winning streak that long.

So, it's probably safe to say we aren't going to do that.

So far this season we've averaged two points a game which would give us 76. That's never going to win the title.

So the question is, realistically how much better can we do than 76 points, and where can that get us?

I think 81 points will win the league, the way things are going. If I'm right, then that gives us an 8 point margin of error - two losses and two draws. Given our run until March, and if we assume that the game against United will at least be tricky, then that allows us to lose the home games to City and Chelsea, and draw against Spurs and Southampton/Palace (the most likely games, I think).

If teams in the top four continue dropping points like Arsenal, Chelsea and City, then it really comes down to who can put a winning run together before the 34/35th game.

Our games from now until City:

Fulham
Swansea
Southampton
Sunderland
Manchester United
Cardiff
Tottenham
West Ham

That's certainly a run of games we are capable of getting maximum points in, as far as I'm concerned. With players returning, a stronger squad, no Europe, and players hitting form in the attack, a maximum return on those 8 games would surely put us in the driving seat going into the last 5 games, where we play both Chelsea and City.
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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1337 on: February 12, 2014, 12:13:34 am »
I think 81 points will win the league, the way things are going. If I'm right, then that gives us an 8 point margin of error - two losses and two draws.

Wouldn't that be a 10 point margin of error?

Think it'll be 82-87 myself, and have settled on 84, which I think would mean winning 11 of the next 13. Our longest winning run this year is 4 games and we've done that once. Everyone above us has gone longer. I think we'll need to kick up another level if we're actually gonna get 80+ points (or rather play consistently to the level that we have in the last two home games).
« Last Edit: February 12, 2014, 12:52:18 am by Juan Loco »
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Offline Illmatic

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1338 on: February 12, 2014, 12:15:39 am »
it's unprecedented for a team to go from 7th to win the title.

In the premier league era maybe. However historically it is not. Promoted clubs have come up an won the top flight at the first attempt Brian Clough did it with Notts Forest in 1977/78 and Alf Ramsey did with Ipswich in 1961/62 Ramsey also achieved this feat as player with Spurs 1950/51.

With the way the money in the game today is so concentrated with the top clubs makes such a feat highly unlikely in the current era. However, I just don't think it would be that outrageous for a team finishing 6 or 7 with few good signings and right the manager making the jump in one go because come august first game of season everyone starts with zero points. Obviously it's not something you would expect to happen every season; however, don't see why it couldn't happen as a one off.         
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Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1339 on: February 12, 2014, 12:18:59 am »
Wouldn't that be a 10 point margin of error?

Think it'll be 82-87 myself, and have settled on 84, which I think would mean winning 11 of the next 3. Our longest winning run this year is 4 games and we've done that once. Everyone above us has gone longer. I think we'll need to kick up another level if we're actually gonna get 80+ points (or rather play consistently to the level that we have in the last two home games).

Possibly - I do technique, tactics and fitness. I leave the maths to Sherwood :D

Edit - and apparently so do you :D
Quote
which I think would mean winning 11 of the next 3.
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Offline fowlermagic

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1340 on: February 12, 2014, 12:20:20 am »
Every week will tell a different tale I think as we will see some to-ing and fro-ing btw now and May. Depending on how the week goes we could have reduced an 8 point deficit from the top last week to 5, maybe even 4 points by tomorrow. If that happens then I expect quite an influx of Believe It posts over the coming days.
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Offline redmark

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1341 on: February 12, 2014, 12:23:52 am »
I think 81 points will win the league, the way things are going. If I'm right, then that gives us an 8 point margin of error - two losses and two draws. Given our run until March, and if we assume that the game against United will at least be tricky, then that allows us to lose the home games to City and Chelsea, and draw against Spurs and Southampton/Palace (the most likely games, I think).

If Chelsea/City were to beat us, then 81 points for them would be 21 points from 11 other games. One of them (without considering Arsenal) should manage that (6-3-2 or 7-0-4). On the other hand, if we beat Chelsea and City, they would need 24 points from those other 11 games, which gets a little more interesting.

81 points might win it for us, if those two games are in our victory column. I'd tend to agree with JL though, and put the required points a touch higher, at 83-84 or so. And while that would require a run verging on the historic, it's not outside the realms of possibility. Three draws, no defeats.


More importantly, to use a Rodger-ism, we're "in the conversation", for the first time in 5 years and a year or more before any of us reasonably expected. Whatever happens now, that's a bit of pride and belief been restored.


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Offline princeoftherocks

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1342 on: February 12, 2014, 12:24:59 am »
In the premier league era maybe. However historically it is not. Promoted clubs have come up an won the top flight at the first attempt Brian Clough did it with Notts Forest in 1977/78 and Alf Ramsey did with Ipswich in 1961/62 Ramsey also achieved this feat as player with Spurs 1950/51.

With the way the money in the game today is so concentrated with the top clubs makes such a feat highly unlikely in the current era. However, I just don't think it would be that outrageous for a team finishing 6 or 7 with few good signings and right the manager making the jump in one go because come august first game of season everyone starts with zero points. Obviously it's not something you would expect to happen every season; however, don't see why it couldn't happen as a one off.       

Ipswich came second, didn't they?
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Offline redmark

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1343 on: February 12, 2014, 12:26:36 am »
With the way the money in the game today is so concentrated with the top clubs makes such a feat highly unlikely in the current era. However, I just don't think it would be that outrageous for a team finishing 6 or 7 with few good signings and right the manager making the jump in one go because come august first game of season everyone starts with zero points. Obviously it's not something you would expect to happen every season; however, don't see why it couldn't happen as a one off.         

It's tempting to think it might become a little more common. If there are 6 or 7 'big' clubs battling for the top spots, they can't all be in the Champions' League. Not being in it gives a nice advantage in terms of (lack of) fixture congestion and demands on squad size and rotation. We may see one of those 'big 7' coming from outside the CL spots to challenging for or winning the title a little more often in coming years.
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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1344 on: February 12, 2014, 12:26:56 am »
If Chelsea/City were to beat us, then 81 points for them would be 21 points from 11 other games. One of them (without considering Arsenal) should manage that (6-3-2 or 7-0-4). On the other hand, if we beat Chelsea and City, they would need 24 points from those other 11 games, which gets a little more interesting.

81 points might win it for us, if those two games are in our victory column. I'd tend to agree with JL though, and put the required points a touch higher, at 83-84 or so. And while that would require a run verging on the historic, it's not outside the realms of possibility. Three draws, no defeats.


More importantly, to use a Rodger-ism, we're "in the conversation", for the first time in 5 years and a year or more before any of us reasonably expected. Whatever happens now, that's a bit of pride and belief been restored.

Amen.

We can debate the details of points not yet won, but the important thing is that we're heading towards March and April with a huge possibility, less than 2 years into the man's tenure.
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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1345 on: February 12, 2014, 12:29:30 am »
83 points will win the league at the current rate of 2.2ppg for Chelsea/Man City/Arsenal. If we raise our output from 2ppg to 2.5ppg we would be VERY close. Do-able, but still unlikely. We can still hold out hope, for example to get 75pts, Man United and Everton would both need to score 2.5ppg or above from now until game 38.

This seasons examples of an LFC 2.5ppg run:

LFC Fixtures:

Games 1-4 = 2.5ppg
Games 6-9 = 2.5ppg

(only Southampton in-between ruined that being a 9game 2.5ppg streak)

Games 14-17 = 3ppg
Games 20-23 = 2.5ppg

If we had beat Southampton, games 1-9 would have been a streak above 2.5ppg (that is 4 games shy of what we need to achieve here) (6 of those games including the Southampton game, were without the World's current best striker). It isn't impossible by a long stretch but Sturridge/Suarez/Phil and Sterling would have to maintain THIS form and we would need abit of luck to go our way...

Having said all of that there are only two possible ways for LFC to reach 83pts = 10 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses / 11 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2014, 12:39:51 am by viewing only »

Offline istvan kozma

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1346 on: February 12, 2014, 12:39:30 am »
 Retweeted by Neil Atkinson
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@Knox_Harrington if we're in with a chance at the end we'll win it. Us being us and no one else being us will be decisive. #Gibbotheory  :scarf :champ                             
« Last Edit: February 12, 2014, 12:42:21 am by istvan kozma »

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1347 on: February 12, 2014, 12:44:45 am »
Having said all of that there are only two possible ways for LFC to reach 83pts = 10 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses / 11 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses.

We finished 08/09 with 10 wins, 2 draws and one defeat, which would give us 82 now. Avoid the equivalent of the Middlesbrough defeat and...
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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1348 on: February 12, 2014, 12:45:14 am »
We finished 08/09 with 10 wins, 2 draws and one defeat, which would give us 82 now. Avoid the equivalent of the Middlesbrough defeat and...

I concur, lets start tomorrow eh?

Offline Juan Loco

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1349 on: February 12, 2014, 12:51:38 am »
Possibly - I do technique, tactics and fitness. I leave the maths to Sherwood :D

Edit - and apparently so do you :D

Hahaha! Sticky keyboa- err... 11 out of 13, obviously! That's 83. Still not sure that would be enough, and much as I'm positive about the team in general, I just don't think it's got that in it at the moment.
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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1350 on: February 12, 2014, 12:55:41 am »
Wouldn't that be a 10 point margin of error?

Think it'll be 82-87 myself, and have settled on 84, which I think would mean winning 11 of the next 13. Our longest winning run this year is 4 games and we've done that once. Everyone above us has gone longer. I think we'll need to kick up another level if we're actually gonna get 80+ points (or rather play consistently to the level that we have in the last two home games).

But we wouldn't need a mass winning streak. We could conceivably win the next 4, lose 1, win the next 3, lose 1, win the last 4...

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1351 on: February 12, 2014, 12:58:42 am »
But we wouldn't need a mass winning streak. We could conceivably win the next 4, lose 1, win the next 3, lose 1, win the last 4...

We could. I just think the odds of it working out that perfectly are probably pretty slim. I've no idea if there's facts or not that prove this, but I tend to think teams who win the league usually string together a run of 6 or 7 (minimum) wins at some point. I'm not sure we've got that in us.
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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1352 on: February 12, 2014, 01:00:57 am »
Hahaha! Sticky keyboa- err... 11 out of 13, obviously! That's 83. Still not sure that would be enough, and much as I'm positive about the team in general, I just don't think it's got that in it at the moment.

I think we can achieve 81 points. And I think that if we were to achieve that, and win the league, it will be just like Derby in 72 (which I compared any potential title win to earlier) - we will win it because others couldn't.

For me, the more important thing is to keep pace, because even a close 3rd or 2nd place finish looks great to prospective targets in the summer, especially as we could offer them Champions League too.
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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1353 on: February 12, 2014, 01:02:34 am »
We're 9 points above a Moyes-managed United side (10 really, if you count our vastly superior GD) and 5 points below Arse. Why would any LFC fan prefer a draw over a United win tomorrow night?!? It boggles the mind, really!
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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1354 on: February 12, 2014, 01:09:47 am »
We could. I just think the odds of it working out that perfectly are probably pretty slim. I've no idea if there's facts or not that prove this, but I tend to think teams who win the league usually string together a run of 6 or 7 (minimum) wins at some point. I'm not sure we've got that in us.

In 08/09 (and I appreciate we didn't win the league, but did finish on 86 points), we never had a run of more than 5 wins, which we did 3 times. To support your point however, United had runs of 11 and 7 wins.
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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1355 on: February 12, 2014, 01:11:12 am »
We will win the league over Chelsea on G/D     It will be 79pts just like in 1990!

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1356 on: February 12, 2014, 01:13:39 am »
We're 9 points above a Moyes-managed United side (10 really, if you count our vastly superior GD) and 5 points below Arse. Why would any LFC fan prefer a draw over a United win tomorrow night?!? It boggles the mind, really!

Not that hard to understand really. Whether Arsenal lose or draw makes no difference to us because of our superior goal difference. We'll still only be 1 game behind even if they draw. 3 pts would make a huge difference to United and I personally want to see them out of the race for fourth, and fifth, as soon as possible.

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1357 on: February 12, 2014, 01:14:15 am »
http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2014/1/14/5307934/epl-2014-title-race

This is a month old now, but reckons it'll take 85 points to win the league.

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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1358 on: February 12, 2014, 01:17:53 am »
Not that hard to understand really. Whether Arsenal lose or draw makes no difference to us because of our superior goal difference. We'll still only be 1 game behind even if they draw. 3 pts would make a huge difference to United and I personally want to see them out of the race for fourth, and fifth, as soon as possible.

Hadn't thought of the goal difference aspect before. Draw it is then.

But then again, if we lost out on a solitary goal to Arsenal, I'll give Gerrard a wedgie.
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Re: Realistically, is it just a battle for 4th spot with 2 other teams now?
« Reply #1359 on: February 12, 2014, 01:18:04 am »
http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2014/1/14/5307934/epl-2014-title-race

This is a month old now, but reckons it'll take 85 points to win the league.

The same author produced this prediction yesterday - before Chelsea drew at West Brom.

1 Man C - 82
2 Chelsea - 82
3 Liverpool - 78
4 Arsenal - 78

http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2014/2/11/5400000/premier-league-projections-stats-analysis-tottenham-hotspur

It's certainly tightening up.
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