Cheers Prof, and thanks for what I'm sure will be another fascinating thread for those of us who like an alternative look at the table.
I like to post a little guide to new readers about how all this works, so I'll use this week's results to illustrate a few things.
Firstly, the APLT works as a model. It sets out a fairly realistic method of winning the league. The tables and graphs plot how well a given side is doing against the model, so you can see what the side probably needs to do in order to win the title or, to a lesser extent what they'll probably need to do to get a top 4 position.
The model is simple. It makes a few assumptions, based heavily on the record of the league, and it suggests a method to win. The method is this:
- Win all of your home games. (19x3=57pts)
- Win your 7 easiest away games. (7x3=21pts)
- Draw the rest. (12x1=12pts)
- Win the league. (57+21+12=90pts)
The main assumption is that 90 points will win you the title. (This is almost always going to be true. If you get 90 points and do not win the league, you are entitled to feel extremely unlucky.)
The question of which are the "easiest" away games is obviously controversial, but the model again takes a simplistic approach, that does seem to be borne out by history. Teams are ranked based on their finishing position the previous season. (Although obviously some sides will be stronger than the year before, and some weaker, it's unusual for more than a couple of sides to move in or out of the top 13.) So any team that finished in positions 1-13 is a "Par 1" away game, and the rest are "Par 3".
So based on this idea, each game gets a "par" score. If you get a result that fits the pattern, that's a par result. If you get a worse result (drawing or losing a home game, for example) then you drop points. If you get a better result (winning away to a good side) then you gain.
So let's have a little look at the table so far:
At the top, we see Manchester City on +2. They won away to West Brom. As West Brom finished last season in 13th place, they are counted as a Par 1 side. (Again, the previous season's top 13 are all Par 1 sides. As all the teams in the APLT finished inside the top 13, each only has 12 Par 1 games per season because you don't play yourself.)
So that seems like a fairly "soft" par 1 game. And it is the easiest of the par 1 fixtures. But don't forget that the model also expects you to win every single home game. In reality, even most title winning teams will drop a small number of points at home, which makes "soft" par 1 games like West Brom an absolutely essential resource to make up lost ground.
In second place, Liverpool also sit on +2 after winning away to a "Par 1" side. In this case, Stoke City, who finished a very credible 9th last season. With the reds facing almost all of their Par 1 games before Christmas, picking up extra points now is a great way to build up a bit of a buffer zone ahead of those tough games. It's two points more than the model predicts at this stage, but it will be a few weeks before we can see if this is just a statistical blip, or the sign of a promising season.
In third place are Manchester United, the only side to record a perfect par score in week one. While a win at home to Spurs might look more difficult on paper than winning away to West Brom or Stoke, the APLT is emphatic on the importance of home form above all else. In fact, it is a criticism of the APLT that it over-emphasises this aspect of the game, although the results actually do support the idea. If you want to win the league, win nearly all of your home games.
Spurs are not likely to win the league. However, their loss away at Manchester United is only a small setback. Because Man Utd are a Par 1 side, Tottenham could have come away with a draw and still been on target to lift the trophy in May. (Stop laughing, back there! Spurs have won trophies. Ask your grandad.) So while they are no doubt kicking themselves for once more rolling over for United, their top four ambitions won't be lost in games like this.
Indeed, they are still above their cockerney neighbours, Chelsea, who could only muster an opening day draw with Swansea. In the cold eyes of the APLT, a loss away to a good side is less costly than a draw at home to anybody. Chelsea can, must and will do better. They start with a small handicap now, but it would be crazy to read too much into it. Chelsea as a team are very good at tracking the APLT's 0 point line, and will be looking to get back there in their next Par 1 game, away to Man City next Sunday in a massive early-season all-APLT clash.
Southampton appeared in the APLT late on last season, when several knowledgable types proclaimed that they would break into the top four. Their form promptly nosedived, and an opening draw away to "par 3" Newcastle is not a good way to recapture their soaring form over the first half of last season. They are level with Chelsea, let's see how long they can stay there.
Bringing up the rear (for the time being - as noted above, new teams are sometimes added to the APLT mid-season if they are showing form similar to the other APLT sides) are the Arsenal on -3. Losing at home to West Ham is a terrible result, and you don't need the APLT to show you why. Arsenal are currently in the relegation zone of the traditional table. There are, of course, many chances for them to regain some ground in that, but fewer in the APLT, where they will need to win two Par 1 games, just to get back on course. The two "softest" Par 1s are away to West Brom and to West Ham.
As the season progresses, and the APLT develops, we will start to get a clearer picture of how everybody is doing. The strength of this model is that is shows how well a team is doing against an ideal model, rather than where they happen to sit based on who they have played so far.
