Author Topic: Goals = Title. Journey to the Holy Grail (Read 3183 times)

woof · « **on:** April 22, 2007, 11:30:06 am »

In the last five seasons, the eventual champions have usually amassed the most number of Goals Scored (GS) and best Goal Difference (GD). The benchmark is low 70's for goals scored and a goal difference of high 40's to low 50's. Of recent years, only in 2002/03 have we breached 60 goals per season albeit a "low" goal difference. Based on stats alone, if Mancs win it this year, they'd have done incredibly well, with goals pouring in. With 3 games left, it is highly likely that they will breach 80 goals this season while we MAY hit 60.

2002/03
Champs: ManU - GS: 74; GD: 40 (second in terms of GS & GD to 2nd placed Arsenal)
RVN - 25 goals; Scholes - 14 goals; Solksjaer - 9 goals
LIV (5th) - GS: 61; GD: 20

2003/04
Champs: Arse - GS: 73; GD: 47
Henry - 30; Pires - 14
LIV (4th) - GS: 55; GD: 18

2004/05
Champs: Chelsea - GS: 75; GD: 57
Lampard - 13; Gudjohnsen - 12; Drogba - 10
LIV (5th) - GS: 52; GD: 11

2005/06
Champs: Chelsea - GS: 72; GD: 50
Lampard - 16; Drogba - 12; Crespo - 10
LIV (3rd) - GS: 57; GD: 32

We have been scoring 50+ goals consistently since Benitez arrived but that's 20 goals shy of the benchmark. This is a good indicator of how close we are. We play with 3 main strikers and unless each of them guarantee a return on 20 goals, our title chances go begging. From midfield, only Gerrard is a noted contributor and his average return in the Premiership is 10 goals.

Crouch is likely to reach 20 goals this season while Kuyt will most likely end with 15. We do need more goal threats coming from midfield and possibly another 15+ goals striker to be a legitimate title challenger. We already have the best defence in the league and we should leverage and build on that. The mean defence marshalled by Carra will ensure we have a good 50+ GD.

This is not a thread to name players we should buy but if anyone has a different theory to mine, please enlighten me.

Kaizer · « **Reply #1 on:** April 22, 2007, 11:42:36 am »

This is almost exactly the same as I focused on in this thread.

http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=146198.0

Quote from: Kaizer on April 18, 2007, 10:11:01 am

I have a theory about how many goals a team that wants to win the league needs to score, to win the league you will have to score about 70 goals, this is why I before the season started that we needed at least 70 goals to be real contenders this season.

Here are some numbers since 2000.

Goals scored from the Champions, second place and us:
2006/07: 1- 78 goals, 2- 60 goals, Liverpool- 54 goals.
2005/06: 1- 72 goals, 2- 72 goals, Liverpool- 57 goals.
2004/05: 1- 72 goals, 2- 87 goals, Liverpool- 52 goals.
2003/04: 1- 73 goals, 2- 67 goals, Liverpool- 55 goals.
2002/03: 1- 74 goals, 2- 85 goals , Liverpool- 61 goals.
2001/02: 1- 79 goals, 2- 67 goals.
2000/01: 1- 79 goals. 2- 63 goals, Liverpool- 71 goals.

I have been criticized because I often focus too much about the fact we need to score more goals, but hopefully when people really look into it they will understand where I am coming from.

Rafa like to set up his teams with two defensive CM`s so we wont get many goals from that area, this is why it is a must for us to have wingers and strikers that score goals more often than not.

Our top scorers in the league under Rafa.

2004/5: 52 goals scored.
Baros 9
Luis Garcia 8
Gerrard 7

2005/6: 57 goals scored.
Gerrard 10
Cisse 9
Crouch 8

2006/7: 54 goals scored.
Kuyt 12
Crouch 9
Bellamy 7

Is this a worrying trend and if we think about the thread where we discussed our approach to away games does it get even more worrying?

Can Rafa`s style of football win us the league in the Premier League?

Like its been said before, it will be an really interesting summer regarding what new players we will bring in now that we have got more money to compete.

Gnurglan · « **Reply #2 on:** April 22, 2007, 11:50:57 am »

Yes, we need to score more goals. It's been great to see the improvement from Gonzalez and in particular Pennant in recent weeks. JP has been more involved and he's taken more initiatives in attack, which has helped a lot. BUT, we're still not getting goals from the wing players. So we need an added goalscoring threat from midfield. That's a "need to have", while another striker would be "nice to have".

Juan Loco · « **Reply #3 on:** April 22, 2007, 11:56:33 am »

I think Rafa's been quite astute in closing the gap slightly to be honest. Everyone looks at the strikers and attacking midfielders, but the area where we've been really lagging behind with goals from defence.

Last season I believe our defensive squad scored just 3 goals between them in the league (one each for Warnock, Riise and Hyypia). Already this season we have 6 I believe (one each for Hyypia, Riise, Arbeloa & Carragher and two for Agger), so that's a steady improvement. And certainly players like Aurelio, Agger and Arbeloa look more of a goalthreat in the long run than Finnan, Carragher & Co. Atleast in open play.

You've got to look at it comparitively though; last season Gallas, Terry and Carvalho scored 10 between them. The vast majority coming from set pieces. That's got to be the kind of total we're aiming for next season domestically.

I think the midfield goalscoring 'problem' could simply be cured with a bit of long term faith in Luis Garcia or Gonzalez. Garcia's always scored goals at a fairly consistent rate from midfield. 7 goals in 15 premiership starts last season and a healthy number of assists to boot. Whereas Gonzalez scored at a decent rate in Spain, and importantly, seems to be finding the chances here also. If they could manage 7-8 league goals each next season, then that's just as impressive as having one 12+ goal midfielder, and alot harder to stop, because if you prepare extensively for the pace of Gonzalez, and drop your defence deep, you've got the guile of Garcia infront of your defence with plenty of time on the ball playing between the lines.

If you put Aimar's or Quaresma's name on Luis Garcia's stats there'd be a massive clamour from fans to sign him. Wish we'd show a bit more faith in the bloke:

Liverpool starts (according to the beeb) - 85
Liverpool goals - 30

Premiership starts - 52
Premiership goals - 18

I think that's a goal every 2.8 starts in the league and, amazingly, he keeps that ratio up throughout all competitions.

woof · « **Reply #4 on:** April 22, 2007, 12:43:16 pm »

Obi, I do agree we miss Garcia terribly this season. He's one of those players who are not the best on field but has the X-factor to influence the outcome of the game.

Goals for defence isn't such a great factor as long as they do their job and keep as many clean sheets as we have. If we have 3 strikers who could give us 50 goals, we need another 20 from midfield - 10 from Gerrard, 5+ from Garcia and someone else??

ratcatcher · « **Reply #5 on:** April 22, 2007, 02:36:41 pm »

I prefer my defenders to defend and any goals they get is a bonus. to be honest we need more goals from our strikers and midfield. Alonso's scoring rate is pathetic and next season, he needs to start finding the net a lot more. Pennant, when he plays, together with Gerrard and a n other need to regulalry hit the net.

But up front, with the rotation the strikers just aren't being given the momentum to reach double figures. We've had strikers who score one game being 'rested' for the next! Any striker will tell you when they are hot they want to keep playing not getting rested every other game.

jackh · « **Reply #6 on:** April 22, 2007, 02:55:42 pm »

Quote from: woof on April 22, 2007, 11:30:06 am

In the last five seasons, the eventual champions have usually amassed the most number of Goals Scored (GS) and best Goal Difference (GD). The benchmark is low 70's for goals scored and a goal difference of high 40's to low 50's. Of recent years, only in 2002/03 have we breached 60 goals per season albeit a "low" goal difference. Based on stats alone, if Mancs win it this year, they'd have done incredibly well, with goals pouring in. With 3 games left, it is highly likely that they will breach 80 goals this season while we MAY hit 60.

2002/03
Champs: ManU - GS: 74; GD: 40 (second in terms of GS & GD to 2nd placed Arsenal)
RVN - 25 goals; Scholes - 14 goals; Solksjaer - 9 goals
LIV (5th) - GS: 61; GD: 20

2003/04
Champs: Arse - GS: 73; GD: 47
Henry - 30; Pires - 14
LIV (4th) - GS: 55; GD: 18

2004/05
Champs: Chelsea - GS: 75; GD: 57
Lampard - 13; Gudjohnsen - 12; Drogba - 10
LIV (5th) - GS: 52; GD: 11

2005/06
Champs: Chelsea - GS: 72; GD: 50
Lampard - 16; Drogba - 12; Crespo - 10
LIV (3rd) - GS: 57; GD: 32

We have been scoring 50+ goals consistently since Benitez arrived but that's 20 goals shy of the benchmark. This is a good indicator of how close we are. We play with 3 main strikers and unless each of them guarantee a return on 20 goals, our title chances go begging. From midfield, only Gerrard is a noted contributor and his average return in the Premiership is 10 goals.

Crouch is likely to reach 20 goals this season while Kuyt will most likely end with 15. We do need more goal threats coming from midfield and possibly another 15+ goals striker to be a legitimate title challenger. We already have the best defence in the league and we should leverage and build on that. The mean defence marshalled by Carra will ensure we have a good 50+ GD.

This is not a thread to name players we should buy but if anyone has a different theory to mine, please enlighten me.

In fairness we've not been able to play our favoured midfielder personnel or system this season - injuries have meant we've missed a lot of goals from Garcia, Kewell and Gerrard, probably about 20 goals down on those three alone, plus you'd hope Gonzalez and Pennant could net 5 each next season.

We've struggled to score and kill teams off at times because we've had key players missing, not because we've not got the tools to score.

Benimar Col · « **Reply #7 on:** April 22, 2007, 03:24:09 pm »

i would like to see Etoo and Tevez here next season with Kuyt and Crouch, Robbie im sure will leave and maybe Rafa will try for David Villa or Fernando Torres.

i think hes found 2 great buys in Agger and Arbeloa.

Garstonite · « **Reply #8 on:** April 22, 2007, 04:56:57 pm »

We need more goals. Fuck, you're right. Tactical fucking genius in the making here, ladies and gentleman. It seems so obvious now...

BCCC · « **Reply #9 on:** April 22, 2007, 05:09:22 pm »

I'm more interested in our conversion rate as in goals scored per chance created as I believe it is a better indicator of match winning ability. If we have a high conversion rate then we are not creating enough chances but I believe that we have a lower conversion rate than the contenders.

We have no problems in defence.

Ciara (with a capital "C") · « **Reply #10 on:** April 22, 2007, 05:54:55 pm »

I think we could get a lot closer to United and Chelsea with our current squad. It's about getting the balance right and doing the basics better. Of course we need to improve our squad but finding someone who scores 20 goals a season won't be the difference between us finishing 20 points behind the leaders and eventually winning the league. There are a number of different factors to consider.

scottishRED · « **Reply #11 on:** April 22, 2007, 07:42:38 pm »

Quote from: Gnurglan on April 22, 2007, 11:50:57 am

Yes, we need to score more goals. It's been great to see the improvement from Gonzalez and in particular Pennant in recent weeks. JP has been more involved and he's taken more initiatives in attack, which has helped a lot. BUT, we're still not getting goals from the wing players. So we need an added goalscoring threat from midfield. That's a "need to have", while another striker would be "nice to have".

Yep - and I think part of the solution will come from a formation which Rafa will be able to deploy more regularly next season: 4-2-3-1. Clearly we won't play this every week - Rafa is tactically flexible. But he tried to get us playing 4-2-3-1 as a default a few years ago and failed; we didn't have the personnel. We still don't, and I think that's why our default formation is still 4-4-2 - but after the summer I think we will.

The defence is the same, but both Alonso and Mascherano have the ability to play as the deep-lying two in central midfield.

In attacking midfield, we really haven't had the personnel in the past. This season, we've got Gerrard and Garcia and Zenden and possibly Pennant who appear semi-suited to this formation. But Garcia has been injured, Zenden average, and Pennant has only just found his feet (and is currently most used to playing as a 'winger').

Next season, we should have Gerrard, a fit Kewell (if he stays at the club), a fit Garcia, Pennant and at least one quality attacking midfielder (e.g. Simao). I've also been told that Voronin plays best 'in the hole', suggesting he could play as one of the three in this formation.

Finally, as the one, Crouch plays that role very well - linking brilliantly with the midfield when he plays on his own up top. Kuyt I also feel is hard working enough to successfully play up top, while it is likely that Rafa will bring in a top quality striker too this summer.

The formation doesn't account for all our players - but they will provide tactical flexibility, and can probably fit in with that formation if necessary (e.g. Gonzalez may not thrive as one of the three attacking midfielders, being more an out and out winger, but I'm sure he can manage it to an extent).

The point is, a 4-2-3-1 formation seems designed to get more out of your midfielders than a 4-4-2 (which is really set up to feed the strikers). With a squad of players suitable to play either 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1, I'm sure we'll see more attacking play and more midfielders getting into the box / on the scoresheet next season.

Quote from: Garstonite on April 22, 2007, 04:56:57 pm

We need more goals. Fuck, you're right. Tactical fucking genius in the making here, ladies and gentleman. It seems so obvious now...

lol

dane · « **Reply #12 on:** April 22, 2007, 08:45:46 pm »

This thread may be seen as overly simplistic by some. However, the stats show that there is a gulf between our attacking ability and the level of attacking ability that it takes to achieve our ultimate goal. I think that the issue warrants serious consideration and there are a couple of points I would like to make.

Firstly, when people talk about the goals contribution of individual players, there sometimes seems to be an absence of consideration that you can't have your cake and eat it too. If you have four strikers of '15 goals per season' quality, you will not end up with 60 goals because they will not all be fielded in every match... the same goes with goalscoring midfielders, wingers etc.

That makes it essential to have a very high quality first-choice 11 if you're planning a title challenge. Yes, squad strength is important to maintain your performance level when injuries and suspensions come up... but, ultimately, if your BEST 11 is not title-winning quality, that is the end of your title hopes.

The other question I wanted to raise is the possibility of there being a ceiling or cap on how far you can go with a particular approach or method. It's a tough concept to fully get your head around because the way a team sets up and plays can be confined by the personell available and vice versa, however, this thread is about our lack of goals and I do think that our fundamental approach is more cnservative than it is aggressive. I wonder if there must be a fundamental shift in our approach if we are to challenge for the title.

We have come close to mastering the more conservative style of play that we use... but that we are reaching the upper limits of the success it can bring. New players coming in may add a few goals but there are only a handful of players in the world who could possibly add around 10 goals themselves without the team's system changing - and I'm pretty sure we will not be signing one of those players.

So - bottom line - do we have to employ and adapt to a more aggressive approach... possibly taking one step backwards in order to take two steps forward when the team comes to grips with a more aggressive approach? It has been noted that our defense is sound as is... I agree... and I think that it could take up the slack of more runs going forward from midfield and also more runs from the fullbacks. We might concede more, but not a lot more, and hopefully we would score more extra goals than we would concede.

I really do think we need to be more aggressive to have even a chance at winning the title. Am I the only one?

woof · « **Reply #13 on:** April 23, 2007, 12:24:34 am »

Quote from: dane on April 22, 2007, 08:45:46 pm

It has been noted that our defense is sound as is... I agree... and I think that it could take up the slack of more runs going forward from midfield and also more runs from the fullbacks. We might concede more, but not a lot more, and hopefully we would score more extra goals than we would concede.

I really do think we need to be more aggressive to have even a chance at winning the title. Am I the only one?

In some ways, I do agree but without compromising on our solid defence because that's the character of the team Rafa has built. We ought to use the fullbacks/wingbacks more often to assist in attacks and have one DM drop back to the centre while spreading the CBs a little wider.

Malski · « **Reply #14 on:** April 23, 2007, 08:23:26 am »

Didn't Valencia win the Spanish league with Rafa (might have been someone else)with a poor scoring rate, think Baraja was the leading scorer with something like 10 goals? most of their matches were 1-0 wins.

Emo Phillips · « **Reply #15 on:** April 23, 2007, 09:46:43 am »

Quote from: Malski on April 23, 2007, 08:23:26 am

Didn't Valencia win the Spanish league with Rafa (might have been someone else)with a poor scoring rate, think Baraja was the leading scorer with something like 10 goals? most of their matches were 1-0 wins.

It depends on how good your defence is. If Rafa makes our defence even better still, then we could win the league with 50 goals scored. 60 would be more realistic, but you don't have to breach 70 if your defence is as mean as hell.

I think Valencia's top league scorer got 6 goals in 2001/02.

More goals can never hurt, but it's about winning games by any margin.

Emo Phillips · « **Reply #16 on:** April 23, 2007, 09:48:43 am »

Quote from: woof on April 23, 2007, 12:24:34 am

In some ways, I do agree but without compromising on our solid defence because that's the character of the team Rafa has built. We ought to use the fullbacks/wingbacks more often to assist in attacks

Finnan and Arbeloa are always getting forward and have been involved in a hell of a lot of goals and near misses lately.

Emo Phillips · « **Reply #17 on:** April 23, 2007, 12:35:26 pm »

Quote from: woof on April 22, 2007, 11:30:06 am

We have been scoring 50+ goals consistently since Benitez arrived but that's 20 goals shy of the benchmark.

I see we scored 57 goals last season. Not a great amount. But it got us 82 points.

We were 9 points away from Chelsea, and I know it's purely hypothetical, but had we scored NO more goals but kept clean sheets in both league games against Chelsea, we'd have had four more points, and they'd have had five less. All still with just 57 goals scored.

I know this didn't happen, but I'm just using it to illustrate that it's not *necessarily* about scoring loads of goals, merely about winning loads of games. And if that's 1-0, so be it.

6BigCups · « **Reply #18 on:** April 23, 2007, 03:57:20 pm »

Agreed that we've missed Garcia. We need someone like him, someone jammy really. He scores the flueky goals, and goals when they matter. We dont seem to have any other player like this, were as chelsea have cole and lampard, if you get me...

WesternRed · « **Reply #19 on:** April 23, 2007, 08:36:31 pm »

Quote from: 5BigCups on April 23, 2007, 03:57:20 pm

Agreed that we've missed Garcia. We need someone like him, someone jammy really. He scores the flueky goals, and goals when they matter. We dont seem to have any other player like this, were as chelsea have cole and lampard, if you get me...

I wouldn't call Garcia's goal flukey by any stretch of the imagination. "Flukey" to me is Frank Lampard scoring goals from 2 deflections. Garcia has scored plenty of goals, and the many of tem, though difficult and unexpected, wer fully intended. Just look at Bayer Leverkusen, Juve, Chelsea et al in '05 - all deliberate.

What sets Garcia apart from almost all our other players is his reaction speed in a scoring area. Most of the lads are looking for the ball, whilst Garcia has already taken a shot, or redirected it! The only player who rivals him for those instincts is... Robbie Fowler.

scottishRED · « **Reply #20 on:** April 23, 2007, 08:58:49 pm »

Quote from: Emo Phillips on April 23, 2007, 12:35:26 pm

I see we scored 57 goals last season. Not a great amount. But it got us 82 points.

We were 9 points away from Chelsea, and I know it's purely hypothetical, but had we scored NO more goals but kept clean sheets in both league games against Chelsea, we'd have had four more points, and they'd have had five less. All still with just 57 goals scored.

I know this didn't happen, but I'm just using it to illustrate that it's not *necessarily* about scoring loads of goals, merely about winning loads of games. And if that's 1-0, so be it.

Very good point - but you have to admit that the area of our game with most scope for improvement (and therefore probably the easiest to improve) is in attack.

And if you also accept the maxim that attack is the best form of defence (which, to an extent, I do) then our defence may be improved BY trying to score more goals...

MagicB8all · « **Reply #21 on:** April 23, 2007, 11:34:07 pm »

The thing is were not that different from the top 2 teams, this year both Man U and Chelsea have had a breakaway scorer
Drogba and Ronaldo have both almost scored at will and thats allowed those teams to be in the title hunt.
Other than that, the only notable difference is Man U score more goals from midfield which is more an indicator of their attacking characteristics AND a mark of the space Ronaldo creates for the rest of the midfield to score from

we're getting there, but sometimes the distance looks greater than it is, Man U were lucky against us - if we had drawn or won games like that - were would we be now ??